The Zambia Kwacha touched 22.56 against the USD, the highest since February 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Zambia Kwacha lost 4.82%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 14.41%.

Zambia Kwacha Hits 19-month High

The Brazilian real weakened sharply to 5.48 per US dollar, marking its lowest level since August 20, as global markets were gripped by risk-off sentiment amid contagion concerns. The selloff was driven by mounting concerns over Brazil’s widening fiscal deficit and skepticism about the government’s ability to rein in spending. Market sentiment worsened after the rejection of an alternative to the dismissed IOF tax hike proposal, which would have changed taxation on financial investments and digital assets. Adding to fiscal uncertainty, President Lula unveiled a new housing finance plan aimed at expanding mortgage access ahead of the 2026 election, a move critics say could strain the budget. With investors seeking safety in the US dollar, Brazil’s central bank is likely keeping a close watch, but the real remains vulnerable to both domestic fiscal pressures and global market volatility.

Brazilian Real Falls to August Lows

The Mexican peso traded around 18.5 per US dollar, its lowest level in a month, reflecting subdued risk appetite amid the US shutdown and global uncertainties. On the domestic front, Mexico's inflation rate rose to 3.76%, slightly below forecasts of 3.79% and remaining comfortably within Banxico’s 2%–4% target. Meanwhile, Banxico’s September meeting minutes pointed to a sluggish economy and a dovish Fed stance, signaling further easing could be possible. Looking ahead, the scheduled review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next year is expected to boost investor confidence and strengthen demand for Mexican exports, supporting the peso. Under USMCA, Mexico continues to benefit from lower tariffs compared with other US trade partners.

Mexican Peso at 1-Month Low

The euro rebounded above $1.16 at the close of a volatile week, recovering from a more than two-month low of $1.154 touched on Thursday. The recovery came as investors sold the dollar following US President Trump’s comments that there was no reason to meet with China’s Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea and his plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Markets also focused on political developments in France, where President Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister after Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation. Investors welcomed signs that snap elections are likely to be avoided, as Lecornu indicated that dissolving parliament was improbable. On the monetary policy front, the ECB’s September meeting accounts showed that policymakers agreed current interest rates are sufficiently robust to address potential shocks amid two-sided inflation risks.

Euro Recovers Above $1.16 Amid Dollar Weakness

The dollar index fell below the 99 mark on Friday amid renewed concerns over a tariff war, after US President Trump said there was no reason to meet with China’s Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea and indicated plans to raise duties on Chinese imports. Investors also digested the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, which showed morale was largely unchanged in October but slightly above expectations. The US government shutdown is expected to continue into next week, likely delaying key economic releases such as CPI and labor data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Markets now price in a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, while odds for a December move have eased to 80% from 90%. For the week, the dollar was on track for a gain of over 1%, supported by political uncertainty in France and Japan, which weighed on the euro and yen.

Dollar Slips on US-China Trade Tensions

AUDUSD decreased to 0.65, the lowest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Australian Dollar US Dollar lost 2.17%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.39%.

Australian Dollar Hits 5-week Low

The dollar index held at 99.3 on Friday, just below Thursday’s two-month high of 99.56, and is on track for a nearly 2% weekly gain, its strongest advance in a year, supported by political uncertainty in France and Japan that weighed on the euro and yen. Investors also digested the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, which showed morale in October little-changed at 55, slightly above expectations. Gains in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by weaker future personal finance expectations and a decline in current buying conditions for durables. The US government shutdown is expected to continue into next week, likely delaying key economic releases such as CPI and labor data, which could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Markets now price in a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, while odds for a December move have eased to 80% from 90%.

Dollar on Track for Strongest Weekly Gain in a Year

The Canadian dollar strengthened slightly, trading just below 1.40 per US dollar, amid a softer dollar and as traders assessed the implications of the latest September labor force survey on the interest rate outlook. Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September 2025, slightly below market expectations of 7.2% but remaining at its highest level since August 2021. At the same time, employment increased more than expected. Markets currently fully price a 25 bps reduction in interest rates by year-end.

Loonie Firms Slightly

The rand weakened slightly to roughly 17.3 per USD, retreating from recent one-year peaks of 17.1 per USD, despite a softer dollar, amid profit-taking following gold’s historic rally sparked by increased demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, investors assessed poor industrial data pointing to a second monthly decline in August. On a more positive note, the National Treasury said South Africa is on track to meet its two main fiscal targets this year, stabilizing its public debt and increasing the size of its primary budget surplus. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will unveil the mid-year fiscal review on 12 November, offering updated projections for revenue and spending for this year and the next three years. Meanwhile, SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago stated on October 9 that the central bank and National Treasury have reached consensus on reducing South Africa’s inflation target, though the timing of the adjustment is still under discussion.

South African Rand Eases Slightly from 1-Year Highs

The yen pared some of its early losses to trade around 152.7 on Friday, after briefly touching 153.2 earlier in the session. The move followed reports that the head of the Komeito Party informed the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that Komeito would withdraw from the ruling coalition after new LDP President Sanae Takaichi “failed to provide sufficient answers regarding political funding issues”. The decision ends a partnership of more than 25 years, which Takaichi, elected party president just last week, had previously described as “fundamental.” The coalition’s breakup has heightened political uncertainty and cast doubt on prospects for increased fiscal spending under the new leadership, a key factor that has weighed on the yen this week. Despite Friday’s gains, the yen ended the week down 3.6%, trading at a seven-month low.

Japanese Yen Edges Up after Komeito Leaves Ruling Coalition

The South Korean won rose to around 1,420 per dollar on Friday, posting a slight uptick but staying near its weakest level in five months as persistent dollar strength continued to pressure Asian currencies. The dollar has held firm throughout the week, benefiting mainly from sharp declines in the yen and euro. Domestically, sentiment stayed cautious after data showed over 470,000 South Korean firms failed to post a net profit in 2024, highlighting weak demand and pressure on fiscal revenues. Meanwhile, the outlook was partly lifted by a fourth straight monthly increase in the country's foreign reserves to about USD 422 billion in September, providing a modest buffer against external volatility.

South Korean Won Rises Slightly

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.12 per dollar on Friday, marking its second consecutive week of gains. During the week, investors resumed market activity following China’s extended 'Super Golden Week' holiday and turned their attention to evolving US–China trade relations. Beijing appears to be gaining leverage in talks with Washington, holding off on American soybean purchases despite the harvest season, while tightening control over rare earth exports. As tensions between the two economies escalate, President Trump has threatened to halt Chinese imports while promising greater market access for US farmers. Meanwhile, although Trump has expressed optimism about a high-level meeting expected later this month, China has yet to provide any formal confirmation. Investors now await key economic data next week, particularly inflation and trade figures, for insights into China’s economic outlook amid domestic and external headwinds.

Offshore Yuan Heads for Second Weekly Gains

The Australian dollar appreciated to around $0.657 on Friday, trading above a nearly two-week low touched the previous day, following RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s cautious remarks. Bullock said on Friday that services inflation remains sticky, noting Q2 inflation was slightly above expectations but trending in the right direction. She also emphasized caution amid volatile monthly CPI data and added that the labor market is still tight but nearing balance. Markets now largely expect the central bank to maintain its policy rate steady after leaving it unchanged at 3.6% in September. Still, the Aussie remained on track for modest weekly losses amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. The ongoing government shutdown and weakness in other major currency peers continued to fuel the greenback. However, divergent RBA-Fed policy outlooks could potentially support the AUD,  as markets priced in a high likelihood of Fed rate cuts in October and December amid labor market concerns.

Australian Dollar Gains on Cautious RBA Tone

The New Zealand dollar edged up to $0.575 on Friday but remained close to a six-month low, weighed down by the Reserve Bank’s dovish monetary policy. Earlier in the week, the central bank cut its official cash rate by an outsized 50bps to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022, and left the door open to yet further easing amid concerns about the frail state of the economy. Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the RBNZ’s next meeting in November, with roughly even odds that rates could fall to 2.0% by next year. Downward pressure on the kiwi was compounded by a stronger US dollar, which is aided by hawkish tone from some Federal Reserve officials, both in the minutes from September’s meeting as well as ongoing commentary. The New Zealand dollar has declined more than 1% so far this week.

New Zealand Dollar Hovers Near 6-Month Low

The Japanese yen traded at an eight-month low around 153 per dollar on Friday and was on track to decline nearly 4% for the week, marking its steepest decline since September last year. The currency weakened after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s leadership race to become the next prime minister, fueling expectations of higher fiscal spending and loose monetary policy. Takaichi said Thursday that the Bank of Japan would set policy independently while aligning with the government’s goals, adding she aimed to avoid excessive yen depreciation, although her comments that did little to support the currency. Markets now see less than a 50% chance of a BOJ rate hike in December, with expectations shifting toward March next year. Meanwhile, data showed producer prices in Japan rose more than expected in September, further complicating the rate outlook.

Yen Heads for Worst Week in a Year

The dollar index held above 99.3 on Friday and was on track to rise nearly 2% for the week, marking its strongest weekly advance in a year, supported by sharp weakness in the yen and euro. The yen is poised to drop almost 4% against the dollar this week after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s leadership race, reinforcing expectations of higher spending and continued monetary easing. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen about 1.5% versus the dollar amid political turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron continues to search for his sixth prime minister in less than two years. In the US, the government shutdown extended into its ninth day after the Senate failed to reach a funding deal, delaying key economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Markets now see a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, while odds for a December move have eased to 80% from 90%.

Dollar Set for Best Week in a Year

GBPUSD decreased to 1.33, the lowest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, British Pound US Dollar lost 1.8%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.75%.

British Pound Hits 9-week Low

The Japanese Yen touched 153.24 against the USD, the lowest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Japanese Yen gained 3.96%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 3.01%.

Japanese Yen Hits 34-week Low

The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.400 per US dollar, reaching the lowest since early April, amid a stronger dollar and declining oil prices. Meanwhile, traders assessed the latest Fed minutes that signalled additional rate cuts in the remaining year while monitoring the potential length of the US shutdown. In Canada, investors are awaiting the official September employment report on Friday, which is expected to show further labour market weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.2% from 7.1%. On the trade front, President Donald Trump said during Carney’s visit to the White House that he expects the US and Canada will eventually reach a trade deal, but provided few details on timing or terms.

Canadian Dollar Hits Near 6-Month Low

The Israeli shekel has been strengthening since the start of October, reaching 3.26 per USD, its highest level since August 2022, after Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of a deal aimed at ending the two-year conflict in Gaza. On October 9th, Israel reached a hostage-release agreement with Hamas and will allow an increase in humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza. The ongoing negotiations, brokered by the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, are based on a framework unveiled by US President Donald Trump. Talks in Sharm El-Sheikh are expected to continue, focusing on Gaza’s reconstruction and future governance. The stronger shekel also gives the Bank of Israel more room to ease monetary policy. Last month, the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% for the 14th consecutive meeting, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, inflation eased to 2.9%, returning to the government’s 1%–3% target range for the first time since June 2024.

Israeli Shekel at Strongest Since 2022

The Canadian Dollar touched 1.40 against the USD, the lowest since May 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Canadian Dollar gained 0.89%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.73%.

Canadian Dollar Hits 20-week Low

The dollar index was little changed around 98.9 on Thursday, holding near a 2-month high after gaining 0.9% over the previous three sessions, supported largely by weakness in other major currencies. The greenback has strengthened notably against the yen, following conservative Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Japan’s leadership race, which bolstered expectations for increased fiscal spending. At the same time, the euro remained under pressure amid political uncertainty in France, though President Macron said a new prime minister will likely be appointed within 48 hours. Meanwhile, the ongoing government shutdown continues to delay the release of key economic data, leaving investors with only few private-sector indicators to gauge economic conditions. Still, traders remain confident that the Fed will deliver two additional 25bps rate cuts this year, after minutes from the latest meeting showed policymakers weighing downside risks to employment against persistent inflation pressures.

Dolla Hovers at 2-Month Highs

The British pound fell to $1.336, a two-week low, pressured by a stronger dollar and concerns ahead of the UK’s November budget. Traders are wary that potential tax hikes to meet fiscal targets could weigh on the already fragile economy and the currency. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who delivers her budget on November 26, is expected to focus on fiscal discipline, possibly through higher taxes — echoing her previous move that raised £25 billion in employer social contributions. Analysts see modest UK growth for the rest of 2025, with inflation rising to 4%, double the BoE’s target. Markets are not expecting the next BoE rate cut until April next year, with a total of two reductions by end 2026. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill urged “conservative central banking,” stressing the need to prioritize inflation control over growth interventions, countering calls for a government–BoE partnership to revive investment.

Sterling Falls to 2-Week Low

The euro hovered around the $1.16 mark, remaining at its weakest level since August 25, as markets focused on political developments in France, where President Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister following Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation. Investors welcomed signs that snap elections are likely to be avoided, after Lecornu indicated that dissolving parliament was improbable. Discussions with opposition parties and allies also suggested broad support for passing a budget by year-end. Meanwhile, fresh data from Germany added to concerns about the eurozone’s economic outlook. German exports unexpectedly declined, while imports fell more sharply than anticipated. These developments came on the heels of steep drops in both industrial output and factory orders released earlier in the week.

Euro Holds at Over Six-Week Low

The Philippine peso weakened to around $58.3 per dollar in October, giving back recent gains after a surprise 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Policymakers said the decision was made as inflation remains within target and expectations are stable, though possible electricity rate and rice tariff hikes could add pressure. The Monetary Board also highlighted weaker domestic growth amid subdued business sentiment and concerns over governance and infrastructure implementation. Adding further downward pressure on the currency were ongoing concerns over corruption and social unrest. The president recently appointed a former Supreme Court justice to lead a probe into alleged graft in infrastructure projects, particularly flood control systems that failed during recent typhoons, while late-September protests and clashes with police added to market uncertainty.

Philippine Peso Weakens as BSP Cuts Rates Unexpectedly

The South Korean won fell to around 1,422 per dollar on Thursday, hovering close to its weakest level in over five months, as persistent dollar strength continued to pressure Asian currencies. The greenback remained supported by yen weakness following fiscal dove and pro-stimulus Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Japan’s leadership race and by political uncertainty in Europe after the resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. Investors also reacted to the latest FOMC minutes which showed divisions among policymakers on the direction for US interest rates. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, sentiment toward the won remained cautious amid trade concerns, with investors watching how the European Union’s plan to curb steel imports could affect South Korea’s key export industries.

South Korean Won Holds at 5-Month Low

The Australian dollar appreciated to around $0.660 on Thursday, building on the prior session’s gains, as higher inflation expectations reinforced the RBA's hawkish stance. Consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.8% in October 2025 from 4.7% in September, the highest since June, amid concerns that Q3 inflation could surpass forecasts. The uptick, driven by the rollback of subsidies, elevated labor costs, and global trade and commodity pressures, adds to signs of lingering price pressures. This reinforces the central bank’s cautious stance, which is expected to hold its policy rate steady after keeping the cash rate at 3.6% in September, citing persistent inflation and a tight labor market. Meanwhile, upside was capped by a firmer US dollar as investors continued to weigh the impact of the ongoing government shutdown, which fueled safe-haven demand. Markets now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today after the FOMC meeting showed mixed views on future rate moves.

Aussie Dollar Gains Amid Rising Inflation Outlook

The New Zealand dollar rose toward $0.58 on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session when the Reserve Bank surprised markets with a larger-than-expected rate cut. On Wednesday, the central bank reduced its official cash rate by 50bps to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022, citing concerns about the fragile state of the economy and left the door open to further easing. Markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25bps cut at the RBNZ's next meeting in November, with rates projected to fall to 2% by 2026. Meanwhile, in the US, minutes from the latest FOMC’s meeting revealed that most members support further rate cuts this year, though many also expressed caution amid persistent inflationary pressures.

New Zealand Dollar Rebounds After Rate-Cut Selloff

The offshore yuan rose to around 7.13 per dollar on Thursday, rebounding from the previous session as investors returned following China’s “Super Golden Week”. The extended holiday period showcased robust consumer activity and sustained economic momentum, highlighting the nation’s shift toward high-quality growth. Travel figures reached record highs, with an estimated 2.43 billion cross-regional passenger trips made, averaging 304 million journeys per day. On the trade front, China expanded its rare earth export restrictions, adding limits on processing technology and banning unauthorized overseas cooperation. The updated rules explicitly state that export licenses will likely be denied to defense contractors and certain semiconductor users. In addition, Chinese firms are prohibited from engaging in rare earth-related work abroad without official approval.

Offshore Yuan Rebounds Post-Holiday

The Japanese yen traded around 152.5 per dollar on Thursday, lingering near its weakest level since February as political shifts and soft economic data dampened prospects for Bank of Japan rate hikes. Conservative leader Sanae Takaichi, a strong advocate of Abenomics-style stimulus, secured a leadership victory that positions her to become Japan’s next prime minister, fueling expectations for higher fiscal spending and continued accommodative monetary settings. Meanwhile, Japan’s real wages dropped 1.4% in August from a year earlier, extending an eight-month streak of declines as inflation continued to outpace pay growth. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that the bank could raise rates if the economy and prices evolve as expected, though he highlighted downside risks to growth. Investors now await Friday’s producer inflation data for further policy clues.

Yen Hovers Near 8-Month Low

The dollar index slipped slightly below 98.8 on Thursday but stayed near the two-month high hit in the previous session, supported by weakness across major currencies. The greenback has climbed more than 3% against the yen this week after conservative candidate Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Japan’s leadership race boosted expectations for higher fiscal spending and continued accommodative monetary settings. The dollar also advanced nearly 1% versus the euro following the unexpected resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his cabinet, though President Emmanuel Macron is expected to name a replacement soon. Meanwhile, investors assessed the economic fallout from the ongoing US government shutdown, which has driven demand for safe-haven assets. On policy, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting showed mixed views on future rate moves, while markets await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today.

Dollar Holds Near 2-Month Peak

The dollar index extended gains for a third consecutive session, rising above 98.9 on Wednesday to its highest level since early August, supported by weakness in other major currencies. The greenback strengthened most notably against the yen, amid expectations of large-scale fiscal stimulus in Japan under new government leadership. It also advanced against the Swiss franc and the euro, with the latter pressured by ongoing political turmoil in France. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials see increasing downside risks to employment, even as concerns about inflation persist. Around half of policymakers anticipated two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month, while the probability of a similar move in December stands at around 78%. Meanwhile, the government shutdown has entered its second week.

Dollar Extends Gains

The South African rand traded around 17.2 per USD, its highest since September 23, mainly supported by the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold, far outpacing the modest rise in the dollar. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor global risks and uncertainties, including the prolonged US government shutdown, while assessing its potential impact on interest rates. Domestically, South Africa’s central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged in November, aiming to anchor inflation at the lower end of its 3%–6% target, its newly preferred goal. Its forecasts indicated inflation peaking at 4% in Q4 2025 before falling to 3% by 2027, leaving room for potential rate cuts next year. Meanwhile, attention remains on trade relations with the U.S., as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) officially expired last week. Although President Donald Trump reportedly signaled support for a one-year extension, the move was stalled by the US government shutdown.

South African Rand Holds Firm

The Swiss franc traded around 0.80 per USD, its lowest level since September 4, amid a slightly stronger dollar despite the ongoing US government shutdown and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, safe-haven demand for the franc remained elevated amid France’s political crisis and global uncertainties. Domestically, rising inflation expectations reduce the likelihood of the SNB moving into negative interest rates. Last week, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel signaled confidence that inflation may pick up in the coming quarters. Earlier, he had warned that negative borrowing rates could harm pensioners and financial institutions. September’s CPI rose 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth but below the 0.3% forecast; month-on-month, prices fell 0.2%, slightly faster than August’s 0.1% decline.

Swiss Franc at 1-Month Low

The euro extended its losses toward the $1.16 mark, hitting its weakest level since August 27, as mounting political turmoil in France and disappointing economic data from Germany rattled investors. French President Emmanuel Macron faces growing pressure to call early parliamentary elections or step down after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unexpectedly tendered his resignation on Monday. Former allies have joined opposition leaders in demanding decisive action to resolve the deepening political crisis in the EU’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, German industrial production slumped 4.3% month-over-month in August—the sharpest decline since March 2022—far exceeding expectations for a 1% drop, largely due to a steep contraction in car manufacturing.

Euro Falls to Six-Week Low on French Turmoil, Weak German Data

The South Korean won fell to around 1,419 per dollar on Wednesday, extending losses for a fifth straight session and approaching its weakest level since May 2025, as the dollar strengthened. Political uncertainty surrounding the prolonged US government shutdown bolstered demand for the dollar, with investors seeking safety amid delayed data releases and fiscal uncertainty. Domestically, South Korea warned that the European Union’s proposal to slash tariff-free steel import quotas and impose a 50% duty on excess shipments could significantly hurt its steel exports, the country’s second-largest overseas market. At the same time, renewed US–China trade tensions added to the cautious mood, following Washington's announcement of new port fees on Chinese-linked vessels and signaling possible curbs on chip-equipment exports, stoking concerns over Asia’s trade outlook.

South Korean Won Nears 5-Month Low

The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.656 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, pressured by greenback’s ongoing strength. The US dollar continued to rally as the government shutdown entered its second week, fueling safe-haven demand, with President Trump threatening mass firings of federal workers amid fading hopes of a resolution. On the policy front, investors have scaled back expectations for near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia after last week’s hawkish outlook. Futures now price in about a 35% chance of a rate cut in November and a 56% probability in December, making the upcoming third-quarter CPI report pivotal. Meanwhile, the Aussie found some support from surging gold prices, as the government projects the metal will become Australia’s second-most valuable export, underscoring the nation’s status as a leading producer and exporter.

Australian Dollar Extends Decline

The offshore yuan depreciated past 7.15 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in over a month, pressured by a strengthening greenback. The US dollar rallied amid mounting concerns over an ongoing US government shutdown, fueling investor anxiety and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. On the trade front, China appears to be gaining leverage in US–China negotiations, underscored by the continued absence of Chinese soybean purchases despite the onset of the northern hemisphere’s harvest season. Markets are now closely watching for developments ahead of the anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, scheduled for October 31 to November 1.

Offshore Yuan Hits Over 1-Month Low

The Japanese yen weakened past 152 per dollar on Wednesday, down over 3% so far this week and hitting its lowest level since February, as softer-than-expected wage data dampened prospects for Bank of Japan rate hikes. Japan’s real wages fell 1.4% in August from a year earlier, marking the eighth straight monthly decline as inflation continued to outpace pay growth. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated the central bank would resume rate hikes if the economy and prices move as projected, though he warned of risks from US tariffs. Investors also weighed Japan’s political outlook after Sanae Takaichi, a staunch supporter of “Abenomics” expansionary policies, won the race to become the next prime minister. Her victory boosted expectations for large-scale fiscal spending and continued monetary accommodation.

Yen Weakens to 8-Month High

The dollar index climbed toward 99 on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in two months as persistent concerns over the economic fallout from the ongoing US government shutdown drove investors toward safe-haven assets. The shutdown entered its second week with no clear resolution, clouding the outlook, delaying key data releases, and heightening pressure on policymakers to strike a deal. On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut this month, with another reduction likely in December. Markets now await the FOMC minutes and comments from several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, for policy cues. The dollar advanced the most against the kiwi after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets with a 50 basis point rate cut, while also firming against major peers amid political uncertainty in France and Japan.

Dollar Hits 2-Month High on Haven Demand

The New Zealand dollar fell nearly 1% to $0.574 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since April, after the Reserve Bank delivered a larger-than-expected interest rate cut and flagged more easing ahead. The central bank slashed its official cash rate by 50bps to 2.50%, surprising markets that were split between a 25- and 50-bp move. The RBNZ said the “double rate cut” was necessary to restore confidence and support an economic recovery that has lost momentum in recent months. Since August 2024, the central bank has reduced rates by a total of 300bps, and with inflation within its target band of 1% to 3%, policymakers have leeway to lower borrowing costs further. Adding to the kiwi’s weakness, the US dollar strengthened as investors sought safety amid growing concerns over a government shutdown.

New Zealand Dollar Tumbles After RBNZ’s Jumbo Cut

EURUSD decreased to 1.16, the lowest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro US Dollar lost 0.5%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.42%.

Euro Hits 4-week Low

DXY increased to 98.61, the highest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Dollar Index gained 1.17%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.8%.

Dollar Index Hits 4-week High

The dollar index rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, climbing to 98.4, its highest level in about two weeks. The greenback remained supported by weakness in the euro and yen, while traders awaited fresh market catalysts amid a light economic calendar and an ongoing government shutdown in Washington, which has delayed the release of key economic data. The shutdown entered its seventh day after both Democratic and Republican funding proposals failed in the Senate for a fifth time on Monday. Attention now turns to the FOMC minutes and remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, for further clues on monetary policy. Markets are currently pricing in a 92% probability of another 25 basis-point rate cut this month and nearly an 80% chance of a similar move in December.

Hungary’s forint fell more than 1% to 335.8 per US dollar on Tuesday, its largest single-day decline since late August, after Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government stepped up pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates in an effort to boost the struggling economy ahead of elections in six months. Orban said on Monday that the country’s key rate of 6.5% — tied with Romania for the highest in the EU — was “higher than it could be.” Economy Minister Marton Nagy echoed the sentiment on Tuesday, noting that borrowing costs remain too high and that the central bank could still meet its inflation target with a lower rate. Orban, who has been in power since 2010, faces a critical test as Hungary heads toward April elections amid a cost-of-living crisis and sluggish economic growth. Headline inflation has stayed above the central bank’s 2–4% target range since the start of the year.

Forint Weakens as Orban Calls for Rate Cuts Ahead of Elections

The euro slipped toward $1.167, its weakest level since September 25, weighed down by renewed political uncertainty in France and a lack of fresh developments from the United States, where the government shutdown continues. In France, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu tendered his resignation on Monday, though President Emmanuel Macron has asked him to continue negotiations to break the political deadlock by Wednesday evening. Betting markets now assign nearly a 60% probability that early elections will be called this month, though it remains unclear whether such a move would resolve the stalemate. On the data front, German factory orders fell 0.8% in August, missing forecasts for a 1.4% gain and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, France’s trade deficit narrowed less than expected, as steady exports were offset by a sharper pullback in imports.

Euro at Two-Week Low Amid French Political Turmoil

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around 16,550 per dollar on Tuesday, extending the uptrend that began at the start of October. The currency was supported by stronger-than-expected August trade data and a modest September manufacturing PMI that signaled continued factory growth. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa also highlighted ongoing coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities as a supportive factor. However, Bank Indonesia’s forex reserves fell to a 14-month low in September, reflecting intervention efforts to stabilize the rupiah. Since September 2024, the central bank has cut rates by 150bps to spur growth, and prospects of further easing may cap upside momentum. Political risks from recent mass protests also weighed on sentiment. Globally, the dollar index rose further as the U.S. government shutdown entered its seventh day, but the rupiah held firm—underpinned by resilient domestic fundamentals that helped offset external pressures and maintain investor confidence.

Rupiah Sustains Gains

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.661 on Tuesday, marking its third consecutive session of gains, as markets dialed back expectations for near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently indicated that rates will likely remain on hold as stronger consumer spending and rising inflation, particularly in housing and services, reduce the need for cuts. Investors now price in only about a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, down from near certainty a month ago. On the economic front, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.5% month-on-month to 92.1 in October, marking the steepest contraction since April and reflecting rising household concerns over persistent inflation. Adding to the economic headwinds, ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads dropped 3.3% in September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest since February 2024, fueling worries about the labor market outlook.

Australian Dollar on 3-Session Winning Streak

The South Korean won fell to around 1,412 per dollar on Tuesday, extending losses for a fourth straight session and hovering near a five-month low, as the dollar strengthened amid stalled US funding talks and persistent global uncertainty. The greenback gained after competing budget proposals failed to advance in the Senate, prolonging the week-long US government shutdown. Investors also looked ahead to comments from Federal Reserve officials later this week for further policy cues. At the same time, weakness in regional currencies, particularly the yen, added to downside pressure on the won amid broader dollar demand, as Japan’s leadership transition fueled expectations of continued fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, with South Korean markets closed for a local holiday, onshore trading remained muted.

South Korean Won Extends Losses on Dollar Strength

The New Zealand dollar edged lower to around $0.584 on Tuesday, pausing its recent gains as investors anticipated a looser monetary stance from the Reserve Bank. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, with growing bets on a larger 50-basis-point reduction. Expectations for deeper easing were reinforced by a weak business sentiment survey suggesting the economy may have contracted again in the third quarter, raising the risk of a renewed recession. The downbeat data also fueled speculation that the RBNZ could pursue additional and more aggressive policy easing in the coming months to support growth. Adding to the Kiwi’s weakness, the US dollar continued to regain some strength as political gridlock in Washington persisted and the government shutdown dragged on.

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