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Palladium futures hovered near $1,760 an ounce, retreating from a one-week high, as markets digested a mixed US economic data slate and monitored geopolitical developments. The US labor market showed resilience, with weekly jobless claims ticking up but remaining below expectations at historically low levels, while December job cuts fell to their lowest since July 2024. Markets price in a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates, though traders still anticipate multiple cuts later this year. On the geopolitical front, Washington has taken steps to bring Venezuelan oil resources under US influence via an initial supply agreement, even as debates over Greenland’s sovereignty and strategic status continue. From a supply-demand perspective, palladium prospects for 2026 will depend on mining output recovery, higher recycling flows, and automotive demand trends. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projected the market could move from a slight deficit to a modest surplus.

Palladium Pulls Back from One-Week High

The Swiss 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 0.30%, the highest in nearly a week, as geopolitical tensions sustained safe-haven demand while investors weighed the policy outlook. Swiss CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year in December 2025, the first increase since July, though still at the lower end of the SNB’s 0-2% target range. This reinforced expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will likely keep interest rates steady at 0% in the coming meetings. While short-term inflation could remain subdued, it is projected to rise gradually as the economic recovers. Minutes from the SNB’s December meeting showed policymakers saw little urgency to adjust policy, keeping the key rate at 0% and noting that neither tightening nor further easing was appropriate at this stage. They highlighted the prospect of gradually rising consumer-price growth and an improved economic outlook for Switzerland following the announced reduction in US tariffs.

Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield at Near 1-Week High

US energy firms withdrew a larger-than-usual 119 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas from storage in the week ended January 2, 2025, exceeding market expectations and reducing total inventories to 3.261 trillion cubic feet (tcf). Storage levels are now about 3.6% below the same week last year but remain roughly 1% above the five-year average for this time of year. The latest draw compares with a 51 bcf withdrawal during the same week a year ago and a five-year average draw of 92 bcf. In the prior week ended December 26, utilities withdrew 38 bcf of gas from storage.

US Natural Gas Stocks Fall More than Expected

Nickel futures slumped to $17,100 per tonne from the over-two-year high of $18,875 touched on January 6th as markets reconsidered the magnitude of output cuts by top producer Indonesia. Jakarta had proposed a 34% reduction in nickel output in its 2026 budget to tackle growing concerns of oversupply and warnings from miners that ore grades are deteriorating. However, the government refrained from providing details on mining quotas on their latest briefing, limiting the confidence over earlier pledges. Despite the public efforts to limit output, prolonged surpluses drove benchmark futures to underperform other base metals, with Russia's Nornickel raised its surplus forecasts for next year to 275,000 tonnes despite Indonesia's signals of lower output. Also, stockpiles at the LME rose by over 93,000 tonnes to 255,000 last year. On the demand front, muted purchasing levels of stainless steel globally were offset by the higher usage of nickel in electric vehicles.

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