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The South African rand traded around 16.2 per US dollar, close to its highest since early March, drawing support from a weaker dollar and rising prices of precious metals on easing Fed rate hike bets. Weaker-than-expected US data has scaled back bets on a September Fed hike, providing support to higher-yielding emerging-market currencies such as the rand. Meanwhile, attention turns to domestic July inflation data due on Wednesday for clues on the interest rate outlook. Headline inflation is anticipated to moderate to 4.5% in July from 5% in June, still above the central bank’s 3% target, reflecting a decline in oil prices following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which unexpectedly kept rates unchanged on July 23, after raising them in May, still sees upside risks to inflation linked to the Middle East confict. Headline Inflation is seen above 4% until early next year.

South African Rand Remains Firm

The euro strengthened to around $1.160, reaching its highest level in two months as changing interest-rate expectations continued to support the single currency. Markets have reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase this year, with the latest economic data reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. By contrast, investors are pricing in roughly an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point European Central Bank rate hike in September, highlighting the widening policy expectations between the two central banks. Elevated energy prices remain a concern for the Euro Area, particularly as tensions in the Middle East show little sign of easing. Iran urged the US to accept defeat, while President Donald Trump warned that Americans should prepare for persistently high fuel prices as the conflict continues. Looking ahead, investors will focus on upcoming Eurozone PMI data for further clues on economic momentum and the ECB’s policy outlook.

Euro Climbs to 2-Month High

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield rose slightly above 8.60% as investors awaited July inflation data for clues on the outlook for interest rates. Headline inflation is expected to ease to around 4.5% from 5.0% in June, largely reflecting lower fuel and transport costs after the sharp increase seen in the previous month. A moderation toward 4.5% would ease concerns over further rate hikes while limiting expectations for near-term cuts, helping to preserve the relatively attractive real-yield and carry appeal of South African assets.

South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Inches Higher

Producer prices in Jordan increased 5.3% year-on-year in June 2026, slowing from an over three-year high of 6.6% in the previous month. Prices moderated sharply in mining and quarrying, which rose 1.50% from 17.18% in May. At the same time, manufacturing prices eased to 5.82% from 6.41%, driven particularly by softer inflation in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, rubber and plastic products, and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment. Costs also edged down in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (0.52% vs 0.55%). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 1.15% in June, reversing from a 0.58% gain in the previous month.

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