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The euro fell to $1.17, pulling back from near three-week highs, as investors weighed the impact of stalled US-Iran negotiations and mounting expectations for further ECB rate hikes. Fears over the fragile ceasefire and persistent inflation have led markets to price in three ECB rate increases by year-end, with an over 85% chance of the first hike in June. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Friday that the central bank is prepared to act swiftly if necessary, emphasizing that the euro area’s economic position is now stronger than before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, German wholesale prices jumped 6.3% year-on-year in April, the highest since February 2023, amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Eurostat data also confirmed that the Eurozone economy grew by just 0.1% in Q1 2026, its weakest expansion since Q2 2025.

Euro Remains Under Pressure as US-Iran Talks Stall

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield held steady at 3.1%, close to its highest level since May 2011, as traders wagered on European Central Bank rate hikes. Concerns over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and persistent inflation have driven investors to price in three ECB rate increases by year-end, with an over 85% probability of the first hike in June. Meanwhile, German wholesale prices surged 6.3% year-on-year in April, the highest since February 2023, due to ongoing Middle East tensions. On Tuesday, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose by seven points to -10.2 in May, rebounding from a three-year low and surpassing expectations. However, it remains in negative territory as investors await a resolution to the Iran conflict.

Bund Yield Holds Near 15-Year High on ECB Rate Hike Bets

Belgium’s trade surplus soared to a record high of EUR 6,463.7 million in March 2026, widening sharply from EUR 488.1 million in the corresponding month of the previous year. Year-on-year, exports climbed 6.3% to EUR 47,185.6 million, the highest since October 2024, driven by increased shipments to EU countries (9.4%), while exports to non-EU countries edged lower (-0.5%). Meanwhile, imports declined by 7.2% to EUR 40,721.9 million, weighed down by reduced purchases from both EU countries (-2.5%) and non-EU countries (-14.7%). Over the first three months of the year, the country posted a trade surplus of EUR 13,500.1 million, significantly higher than EUR 3,378.5 million in the same period a year earlier.

Belgium Trade Surplus Soars to Record High

The Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.8% from the previous year in the first quarter of 2026, the softest pace of expansion since the second quarter of 2024, compared to 1.2% in the previous period and in line with the previous estimate. The slowdown was aligned with the energy crunch from the Middle East following the outbreak of war in the region, which triggered surges in the cost of major energy goods since the start of March. Among the economies for which data is available, the GDP growth slowed in Germany (0.3% vs 0.4% in the previous period), France (1.1% vs 1.3%), Italy (0.7% vs 0.9%), Netherlands (1.2% vs 1.8%), Belgium (0.8% vs 0.9%), Cyprus (3% vs 4.3%), Lithuania (2.5% vs 3.3%) and Austria (0.6% vs 0.7%) and shrank in Ireland (-6.3% vs 3%). On the other hand, GDP growth accelerated in Spain (2.7% vs 2.6%), Estonia (1.3% vs 0.8%), Portugal (2.3% vs 1.9%), Slovakia (0.9% vs 0.8%) and Finland (1.3% vs 0.1%) and steadied for Bulgaria at 2.9%.

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