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The CAC 40 closed nearly flat at 8,183 on Friday as investors weighed domestic economic data and prospects for peace in the Middle East. France’s economy contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, reversing a 0.2% expansion in the previous quarter and marking the first contraction since Q2 2020. Preliminary data also showed annual inflation accelerated to 2.4% in May from 2.2% in April, the highest level since February 2024, largely driven by higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, markets assessed the likelihood of an extension to the US-Iran ceasefire after reports that both sides had agreed to a framework deal pending approval from US President Donald Trump. Luxury stocks weighed on the index, with LVMH down 1.6% and L'Oréal losing 1%, while industrials advanced, with Airbus up 1.1% and Safran gaining 0.9%.

CAC 40 Ends Near Flat as Inflation Offsets Ceasefire Hopes

The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index, which measures shipping rates for vessels carrying dry commodities, slipped 0.1% to 3,224 on Friday. The capesize index, covering ships that typically transport 150,000 ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell 0.3% to 5,503. In contrast, the panamax index, which tracks vessels carrying around 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 0.5% to 2,343. The supramax index was unchanged at 1,569. Despite the decline, the broader Baltic index gained 20% over the month of May.

Baltic Dry Index Edges Down, But Climbs 20% in May

The FTSE MIB added 0.4% to close at 50,037 on Friday, supported by optimism over an extended ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, although US President Donald Trump has yet to formally approve the deal. The development pushed oil prices lower, weighing on bond yields and supporting financials and the broader index. UniCredit gained 1.8%, while Intesa Sanpaolo and Generali added 1%. Luxury stocks also traded higher amid improved risk appetite, with Ferrari up 0.5% and Moncler advancing 0.9%. Other notable gainers included Poste Italiane (+1.4%) and TIM (+1.2%). In contrast, energy-related stocks retreated on lower oil prices, with Eni down 0.5% and Prysmian losing 1.5%. On the data front, the Italian headline inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May from 2.7% in April, aligning with forecasts. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in April, below expectations of 5.3%. GDP  expanded by 0.8% from the previous year in the first quarter of 2026, revised from estimates of 0.7%.

FTSE MIB Gains on US-Iran Ceasefire Optimism

The DAX 40 finished 0.1% higher at 25,113 on Friday and ended May up 3.4%, supported by rising hopes of a near-term US–Iran agreement. In the latest developments, US President Trump said he was meeting in the White House Situation Room to make a final determination on a deal with Iran. Meanwhile, oil prices fell to more than one-month lows, providing some relief to inflationary pressures. Flash estimates showed the EU-harmonised annual inflation rate in Germany eased to 2.7% in May from 2.9% in April, slightly below forecasts of 2.8%. SAP (+2.8%) and Zalando (+3.0%) were among the top performers, while Bayer (-3.9%), Siemens Energy (-2.8%), and Beiersdorf (-2.8%) underperformed.

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