The US government recorded a $164.1 billion budget deficit in March 2026, compared with a $160.5 billion deficit a year earlier, and missing forecasts of $156.7 billion. Outlays increased to $549 billion from $528.2 billion, with most spending directed to social security at $139 billion, healthcare at $90 billion, and national defense at $69 billion. Receipts rose to $384.9 billion from $367.6 billion, driven by individual income taxes at $189 billion, social insurance and retirement at $152 billion, and customs duties at $22 billion.

US Budget Deficit Widens in March

US stocks were trading near 5-week high, loosely holding the surge this week amid seemingly lower geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 held near the flat line and Dow was slightly lower. While the two-week ceasefire was largely being maintained across the Middle East, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon risked complicating this weekends negotiations in Pakistan. Speculative tech stocks gained on the higher risk sentiment, with Amazon and Meta up 2%, while Nvidia added almost 1% on strong results from TSMC. In turn, financial companies were slightly lower ahead of their earnings next week. For the week, the S&P 500 has surged over 3%, putting it on track for its strongest performance since November. The Nasdaq is set to climb more than 4%, also heading for its best week since November, while the Dow has advanced roughly 3% so far.

US Stocks Hold Near 5-Week High

The development of ceasefire talks regarding the war in the Middle East will remain the driver of market movements, with current agreements proving fragile and energy exports from the region not yet normalized. Producer prices in the US will take the data spotlight in the US, quantifying the initial impact of the surge in energy prices for goods producers. In Europe, trade figures and industrial production are also awaited. A busy week in China will feature its GDP, trade figures, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, housing prices, and credit aggregates. Meanwhile, major financial companies in the US will release earnings, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and BlackRock. Elsewhere, TSMC and ASML will set the latest guidance for AI. On the politics front, elections in Hungary are due to shape the policy direction of the EU. Lastly, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will hold spring meetings.

Week Ahead - Apr 13th

Russia's headline annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 5.9% in March 2026 compared to February, slightly above forecasts of 5.8%. The strongest price increases were recorded in services at 10% and food products at 5%. Within food, fruit and vegetable products led gains at 7.4%. Amid Middle East oil supply concerns, gasoline prices rose 2.3%. Housing prices increased 2.2% and utilities 5.1%, with gas supply up 2.1%. On a monthly basis, the Russian CPI rose 0.6% following a 0.7% increase in February.

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US Budget Deficit Widens in March

US Stocks Hold Near 5-Week High

Week Ahead - Apr 13th

Russia Inflation Holds at 5.9% in March