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Copper futures rebounded to above $5.85 per pound on Monday as a sharp correction in the dollar and opportunistic dip-buying from Chinese fabricators offset the initial geopolitical shock. The rally gained momentum as the US dollar index retreated from recent highs, making greenback-denominated metals more attractive for international buyers. In China, spot premiums rose for a fifth consecutive session because the previous price drop below the 100,000 yuan threshold spurred a wave of downstream procurement for the construction and renewable energy sectors. Market participants also focused on midstream stress as annual copper smelting refining charges plummeted to $0 per tonne in 2026, signaling a severe global shortage of copper concentrate that threatens refined output. While record-high exchange inventories in Shanghai initially capped gains, the narrative of long-term structural deficits tied to AI data centers and defense spending continues to provide a floor for the red metal.

Copper Rebounds

Gasoline futures plummeted nearly 5% to below $2.64 per gallon on Monday afternoon as a sharp reversal in crude oil prices and aggressive intervention signals from the G7 capped the geopolitical risk premium. Prices initially surged to levels not seen since 2022 as the war with Iran paralyzed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and forced output cuts across the Gulf. However, the momentum broke after President Donald Trump characterized the military campaign as nearing completion and noted that maritime traffic was resuming through key lanes. This bearish pivot was reinforced by G7 finance ministers announcing their readiness to deploy strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize global fuel markets and counteract inflationary pressures. While domestic inventories had shown a third consecutive weekly drawdown of 1.7 million barrels earlier in March the sudden collapse in the global energy complex and the easing of supply disruption fears triggered a rapid sell-off in gasoline benchmarks.

Gasoline TUmbles Nearly 5%

The Ibovespa climbed 0.9% to close at 180,915 on Monday as easing global energy concerns and optimistic signals from the White House sparked a broad recovery in Brazilian risk assets. Sentiment improved significantly following President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing its conclusion and that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resuming. This shift triggered a sharp reversal in crude prices and supported a rebound in domestic heavyweights with Petrobras rising 2.5% and Vale adding 0.8%. Despite earlier pressure from the Focus Bulletin revising 2026 Selic expectations upward to 12.13% the market pivot toward de-escalation fueled gains in cyclicals like Embraer which surged 3.4%. While agricultural exports remain vulnerable due to the slowest soybean harvest pace since 2020 the relief from global stagflationary fears allowed the index to reclaim the 180,000 level by the closing bell.

Ibovespa Rebounds on Monday

The Dow Jones Index gained 206 points or 0.43 percent on Monday to close at 47707 points. Gains were led by Caterpillar (3.39%), Nvidia (2.73%) and Amgen (2.01%). Biggest losers were Cisco Systems (-3.08%), Boeing (-2.70%) and IBM (-2.08%).

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