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The South African economy rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.3% growth in the prior period and slightly above analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of expansion, with five out of ten industries registering growth. The finance sector led growth, rising 1.4% and contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Trade increased 0.9% (0.1 points), and personal services grew 0.4% (0.1 points). Manufacturing weighed on GDP, falling 0.6% and subtracting 0.1 points. On a yearly basis, the GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4, down from a 2.1% advance in Q2 and below forecasts of 1.8%. In 2025, the GDP rose by 1.1%, the most since 2022, following a revised increase of 0.5% in 2024.

South African Economy Sees Modest Growth in Q4

France’s 10-year OAT yield moved back to 3.45% from 1-1/2-month highs touched early in the month, tracking a fall in global borrowing costs, amid hopes that a swift end to the Iran conflict would limit inflationary pressures. A temporary relief came after US President Trump said the military operation in Iran could conclude soon and is progressing well ahead of the initially projected four- to five-week timeline. Oil prices also retreated to below $100 per barrel after Trump hinted at several measures aimed at keeping energy costs under control. Last week, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a sustained decline in regional oil and gas supplies could trigger a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” across the EA. Against this backdrop, markets now expect the ECB to raise its key interest rate by at least 25bps once this year.

French Bond Yields Track Global Decline in Borrowing Costs

France’s current account surplus widened sharply to EUR 2.1 billion in January 2026, up from just EUR 0.1 billion in December, marking the largest surplus since December 2024. The increase was driven by a rise in the services account surplus, which climbed to EUR 56.0 billion from EUR 55.7 billion in the previous month. The goods account deficit narrowed significantly, falling to EUR 56.3 billion from EUR 60.2 billion, while the shortfall in secondary income eased slightly to EUR 4.5 billion from EUR 4.6 billion. Meanwhile, the primary income surplus decreased to EUR 3.8 billion from EUR 4.0 billion. By comparison, the current account had recorded a deficit of EUR 1.8 billion in the same month last year, highlighting a marked improvement in the country’s external position.

France Current Account Surplus Largest in 13 Months

The yield on Italy's 10-year BTP moved back to 3.5% from nearly five-month highs touched early in the month, tracking a fall in global borrowing costs, amid hopes that a swift end to the Iran conflict would limit inflationary pressures. A temporary relief came after US President Trump said the military operation in Iran could conclude soon and is progressing well ahead of the initially projected four- to five-week timeline. Oil prices also retreated to below $100 per barrel after Trump hinted at several measures aimed at keeping energy costs under control. Last week, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a sustained decline in regional oil and gas supplies could trigger a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” across the EA. Against this backdrop, markets now expect the ECB to raise its key interest rate by at least 25bps once this year.

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