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The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to above the 4.4% threshold on Tuesday, the highest in eight months, as pro-inflationary risks and higher deficit spending due to the war in the Middle East lifted the outlook for US rates. Reports indicated the US deployed more troops to the Middle East, against the view that the administration was aiming for de-escalation, while attacks between militaries in the region continued. Key oil and gas prices rose further, adding to concerns of a rebound in inflation shortly after the latest PPI reading had already flagged some traction for wholesale prices. Pro-inflationary risks drove the FOMC last week to project less room for rate cuts. On the fiscal side, the presidential administration pushed for a larger military funding to combine with an already fiscally expansionary spending bill. Consequently, the auction for the latest 2-year note tailed by 1.8bps and had primary dealers take 24.12% of what was auctioned, the most since 2022.

US 10-Year Yield Rises to 8-Month High

European equity indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday as markets continued to assess how higher energy prices will impact the global economy. The STOXX 50 inched higher by 0.2% to 5,585 and the STOXX 600 rose a sharper 0.5% to 579. ASML was among the strongest performers of the session after SK Hynix announced plans to order $8 billion of lithography equipment from the Dutch manufacturer. Chemicals producers were also higher as European natural gas prices trimmed a portion of their surge this month, easing the tighter margins for the sector. Air Liquide and BASF rose 2.5% and 4%, respectively. Still, oil prices continued to rise as hostilities between Iran, Gulf countries, and Israel worsened. Banks fell further in the session on the worsening inflation outlook, with Nordea and ING sliding 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. Preliminary data showed that Eurozone private activity rose at a softer pace in March, the first confirmation that higher energy prices from the war are denting output.

European Stocks Inch Higher

Frankfurt's DAX 40 trimmed some early losses to close marginally down at 22,640 on Tuesday, reflecting persistent uncertainty over the Iran war amid conflicting signals on a potential end of the conflict. Meanwhile, flash March PMI surveys showed that the recent surge in energy prices is already affecting global economies, slowing business activity and production while adding upward pressure on inflation. Germany's private sector growth slowed to a three-month low, with the services sector losing further momentum. SAP led losses in equities, falling roughly 4% following JPMorgan’s downgrade from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Neutral. Analyst Toby Ogg argued that the outlook for expected growth acceleration and margin expansion had changed. Bayer fell nearly 2% on news of potential stake sale from shareholder Inclusive Capital Partners.

DAX Finishes Marginally Down

The FTSE MIB Index gained 173 points or 0.40 percent on Tuesday to close at 43363 points. Gains were led by Infrastrutture Wire (9.89%), Diasorin (4.75%) and Amplifon (3.69%). Biggest losers were Leonardo SpA (-2.26%), Banca Generali (-0.89%) and Ferrari NV (-0.79%).

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