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Brent crude paused its rally to settle around $104 a barrel on Friday after Iranian state media said Tehran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf Cooperation Council diplomats are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday to discuss a possible temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the strait. Adding to downward pressure, the EIA raised its 2027 US crude production forecast to 14.3 million barrels a day, while the IEA sharply cut its global oil demand outlook, forecasting a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day contraction in 2026. Meanwhile, China is on track to import roughly the same volume of crude in September as in August, with purchases recovering from June’s decade-low. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline as a precaution after multiple attacks, while Iran-backed Houthis reportedly advanced to Yemen’s Perim Island. Brent surged 9% on the week.

Brent Rally Pauses on Mideast Diplomatic Efforts

Crude oil paused its rally to settle around $100 a barrel on Friday after Iranian state media said Tehran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf Cooperation Council diplomats are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday to discuss a possible temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the strait. Adding to downward pressure, the EIA raised its 2027 US crude production forecast to 14.3 million barrels a day, while the IEA sharply cut its global oil demand outlook, forecasting a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day contraction in 2026. Meanwhile, China is on track to import roughly the same volume of crude in September as in August, with purchases recovering from June’s decade-low. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline as a precaution after multiple attacks, while Iran-backed Houthis reportedly advanced to Yemen’s Perim Island. Oil surged 9.7% on the week.

Oil Rally Pauses on Mideast Diplomatic Efforts

The Ibovespa fell 0.6% to close at 187,207 on Friday as the Supreme Court crisis continued to fuel political uncertainty, weighing on the country’s economic outlook. Chief Justice Edson Fachin ordered Justice André Mendonça to remove, within 24 hours, the secrecy surrounding proceedings related to investigations into Banco Master. This includes possible irregularities involving the financing of the film “Dark Horse,” which could affect Flávio Bolsonaro’s electoral prospects. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. State-controlled financial stocks traded lower, with Banco do Brasil down 1.4%, BB Seguridade shedding 4.1%, and Caixa losing 2.4%. Utilities also posted losses, with Axia down 1.6%. CSN plunged 7.4% as investors booked profits, with the stock still up 4.2% on the week following a CEO change. The Ibovespa rose 1.1% on a weekly basis.

Ibovespa Falls as Political Risks Persist

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.5% to close at 35,697 on Friday as oil prices pulled back on prospects for diplomatic efforts to ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf foreign ministers are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman on Monday as part of efforts to secure support for a temporary arrangement to manage shipping through the strait. The pause in the oil rally allowed equities to enjoy some respite. Credit-sensitive stocks posted gains, with TD Bank and BMO up 0.8% each, while Scotiabank added 0.9%. Gold prices rebounded, supporting heavyweight mining stocks, with Agnico Eagle rising 2.2%, while WPM and Franco-Nevada gained 2.4% each. Tech stocks advanced, tracking strength in US hyperscalers and chipmakers, with Shopify up 1.9%, Constellation Software adding 2.5%, and Celestica jumping 6.6%. Descartes Systems surged 6.9% after reporting second-quarter revenue slightly above estimates. Still, the S&P/TSX Composite Index lost 1.7% on a weekly basis.

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