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The Australian dollar rose above $0.709, hitting a ten-week high as the Reserve Bank maintained a hawkish policy stance, while the US dollar weakened as Fed rate hike bets faded amid softer US economic data. Recent figures pointed to subdued US inflation, while consumer sentiment and retail sales also weakened. Markets now price roughly a one-in-three chance of a September rate hike, down from nearly 50% before the latest data. In Australia, the RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting last week, but Governor Michele Bullock said rates might need to rise again as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and productivity growth stayed weak. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent also said tighter monetary policy was working as designed, although its full effects on activity and inflation would take time. Markets now price around a 70% chance of one final move to 4.60% by early next year. Meanwhile, Australia’s July employment report will be in focus on Thursday.

Australian Dollar Rises to 10-Week High

The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.4% toward 69,000 on Monday, extending last week’s gains after preliminary data showed Japan’s economy expanded less than expected in the second quarter, as weak domestic demand offset robust exports. Still, strong demand related to artificial intelligence continued to support the outlook for Japanese companies deeply integrated into the global semiconductor supply chain. Chip and AI-linked stocks mostly advanced, including Kioxia Holdings (2.9%), Advantest (3.9%), Fujikura (3%), Tokyo Electron (1.6%) and Furukawa Electric (4.1%). Meanwhile, financial and consumer stocks mostly declined. In corporate news, Nvidia is reportedly planning to invest up to $3 billion in SB Energy, a SoftBank Group subsidiary developing a major data center project in Ohio for OpenAI.

Japanese Shares Rise Amid Soft GDP Data

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) jumped 24.2% year-on-year in July 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 20.8% rise in June. It was the eleventh straight month of expansion, driven by electronics exports (112.1% vs. 105.1% in June), supported by robust AI-related demand. Electronic exports were boosted by disk media products (339.1%), PCs (120.8%), and ICs (84.5%). By contrast, non-electronic exports dropped 2.3% in July, following a 2.8% fall in June, due to lower shipments of pharmaceuticals (-56.7%), petrochemicals (-22.5%), and food preparations (-17.9%). Among trading partners, shipments grew to the US (62.8%), South Korea (53.3%), Taiwan (32.4%), Thailand (18.0%), and India (13.0%), while plunging to the EU (-35.5%).

Singapore NODX Growth Accelerates in July

Gold traded just below $4,400 an ounce on Monday, holding steady as investors weighed subdued US economic data that reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike against persistent tensions in the Middle East. Data released last week pointed to tame US inflation, while consumer sentiment and retail sales weakened. Markets now see roughly a one-in-three chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from nearly 50% before the data. Investors are now awaiting the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, while President Donald Trump is preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender. Still, Middle Eastern producers are covertly moving millions of barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

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