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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note jumped 6bps to 4.9% on Friday, rebounding from nearly two-month lows touched earlier in the session, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report boosted expectations of a Fed rate hike next month. The US economy added 165K jobs in October, well above forecasts of 65K. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and wage growth exceeded expectations, pointing to a resilient labour market capable of withstanding higher borrowing costs as the Fed seeks to contain inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, US stocks were on track to rebound from the sharp losses recorded in the previous session, easing demand for safe-haven assets and contributing to the reversal in Treasury prices. Investors have been reassessing the potential economic implications of the Democrats' sweep in the midterm elections, including the prospect of lower tax cuts and government spending, alongside potentially tighter AI regulation that could weigh on investment in the sector.

Treasury Yields Soar After NFP

The US dollar index rose 0.6% to 102.2 on Friday, extending gains after October employment data significantly exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, more than double the 65,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. Job gains were broad-based, led by professional and business services and healthcare, reinforcing evidence of a resilient labour market supported by consumer spending and business investment. The stronger figures strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary stance, with investors anticipating another interest rate increase in December to contain inflation. Policymakers will receive one more employment report and a full set of inflation data before their next meeting. The dollar also benefited from increased safe-haven demand amid a global equity selloff driven by concerns over AI valuations and tighter regulation.

DXY Extends Gains After Strong Jobs Report

Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October 2026 from 6.5% in September, reaching its highest level since April and exceeding expectations that it would remain unchanged at 6.5%. The number of unemployed people increased by 32,800 to 1,507,700. Of these, nearly one-quarter (23.7%) had been unemployed for at least 27 weeks. The share was highest among those aged 55 and over, at 32.7%, while it stood at 25.3% among core-aged workers. Unemployment rates for core-aged people were unchanged for both men (5.8%) and women (5.3%). Young people continued to have the lowest proportion of long-term unemployment, at 15.2%, although their unemployment rate climbed to 13.7% as employment edged lower and more people entered the labour force to seek work. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 64.8%, while employed persons fell by 4.7 thousand.

Canada Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Rises

Canadian employment fell by 4,700 in October 2026, improving from a steep 68,300 decline in September but missing expectations for a 13,600 increase. Private-sector employment dropped by 53,000 (-0.4%), its first decline since February, while public-sector employment rose by 50,000 (+1.1%). Wholesale and retail trade shed 29,000 jobs (-1.0%), while construction added 16,000 (+0.9%) and educational services gained 15,000 (+1.0%). Employment declined in Alberta (-24,000; -0.9%) and Prince Edward Island (-1,300; -1.3%), but increased in British Columbia (+12,000; +0.4%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+2,900; +1.2%). On a yearly basis, employment was nearly unchanged, rising by just 17,000 (+0.1%). The employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 60.5%, marking its third consecutive monthly decline.

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