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Silver climbed back above $74 an ounce on Thursday after briefly hitting a four-week low, as investors balanced renewed hopes of progress in Middle East peace talks against lingering inflation pressures and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook. According to Axios, US and Iranian negotiators have reportedly agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire and open negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, though final approval from President Trump is still pending. Despite the tentative diplomatic progress, tensions remain high, with continued US–Iran exchanges and Israel resuming strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid a fragile ceasefire. Meanwhile, elevated energy prices sustain inflation risks and dampen expectations for near-term rate cuts. Fed officials maintained a cautious stance, with Lisa Cook supporting steady rates for now but signaling openness to hikes if inflation accelerates, while John Williams warned inflation could rise toward 4% in the near term.

Silver Rebounds as Middle East Ceasefire Hopes Offset Hawkish Fed Tone

UK 10-year gilt yields reversed early gains to slip back toward 4.8%, their lowest level since April 17, as renewed optimism over a potential US–Iran agreement helped ease inflation concerns and supported fixed-income markets. The rally in UK government bonds extended to a seventh consecutive session, marking the longest winning streak since just before tensions escalated in the Iran conflict in late February. Sentiment has also been underpinned by recent domestic data showing a cooling labor market, softer-than-expected inflation, and signs of slowing economic activity, prompting traders to scale back expectations for a Bank of England rate hike. According to Axios, US and Iranian negotiators have reached a memorandum of understanding aimed at extending a ceasefire by 60 days and initiating talks on Iran’s nuclear program, though final approval from US President Donald Trump is still pending.

UK Gilt Yields Fall as Inflation Pressures Ease on US–Iran Deal Hopes

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.46%, extending the drop from the 16-month high of 4.7% touched on May 20th as reports of an interim deal between the US and Iran limited the inflationary outlook. The US and Iran reportedly agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding that extends the current ceasefire and gradually restores the flow of tankers and commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices pared their rebound, easing inflationary concerns despite new data consolidating the surge in prices. PCE inflation rose to a 3-year high of 3.8% in April, while consumer spending remained relatively robust and jobless claims maintained their low level. Hawkish remarks by FOMC members also prevented a further drop in yields. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, while Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said consumer prices are still “much too high”.

US 10-Year Yield Drops Further

The pound pared earlier losses to trade slightly higher above $1.34, as investors weighed developments in Middle East diplomacy alongside shifting expectations for UK interest rates. According to Axios, US and Iranian negotiators have reportedly agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire and begin negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, though final approval from President Trump remains pending. Despite the tentative progress, geopolitical tensions persist, with continued US–Iran exchanges and renewed Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon despite a fragile ceasefire. The resulting decline in oil prices helped ease inflation concerns, prompting investors to slightly scale back expectations for further Bank of England rate hikes. Sentiment was also influenced by recent UK data pointing to a cooling labor market, softer-than-expected inflation, and signs of moderating economic activity.

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