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Coal prices rallied to around $145 per ton in early September, reaching their highest levels in eleven weeks amid robust global energy demand and persistent supply risks. The fossil fuel also advanced despite China reporting that solar power had become the country’s single largest source of electricity capacity, surpassing coal-fired power for the first time amid its push toward renewable energy. Still, coal remains the world’s largest source of power generation, producing nearly 11,000 TWh in 2026, while surging electricity demand is slowing efforts to replace the fuel with renewable energy. The IEA also expects coal to remain the largest single source of power generation through 2030, with no individual alternative expected to come close to replacing it. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has tightened global LNG supplies and driven energy prices higher, further strengthened the outlook for coal demand.

Coal Hits 11-Week High

US natural gas prices rose to $2.94/MMBtu, reaching their highest level in nearly eight weeks, as hot weather persisted and LNG export activity strengthened. Forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain mostly above normal across the central US through mid-September, likely keeping demand for gas-fired power generation elevated. At the same time, average gas flows to the nine major LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd in early September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, as Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG in Texas returned to full operations following maintenance. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border, although no significant operational disruptions were reported at LNG facilities in the region so far. On the supply side, production in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 111.5 bcfd in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, keeping the market well supplied and limiting the upside for prices.

US Natural Gas Prices Rise

Copper fell toward $6.4 per pound on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in a month as rising oil prices and global bond yields kept inflationary risks and interest rate concerns in focus, weighing on the demand outlook. Oil prices advanced for a third consecutive session amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, complicating efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global bond yields climbed on mounting inflationary pressures and worsening fiscal conditions, reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to raise interest rates soon. Higher borrowing costs could eventually slow global economic growth, dampening demand for industrial metals such as copper. Still, tight global copper supply offered some support, with top producer Chile reporting a 9.4% decline in output in July. Traders also continued redirecting copper shipments toward the US ahead of potential new import tariffs, with the White House yet to make a decision on the issue.

Copper Falls on Demand Concerns

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,950 per tonne, ending their recent rally as weaker edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Weak exports added pressure, with cargo surveyors estimating Malaysian palm oil shipments fell 6.5%–14.9% in August from the prior month. Ample supply also remained a concern, with inventories rising to a five-month high in July. Meanwhile, EU palm oil imports for the 2026/27 season, which began in July, plunged 21% yoy, pointing to weaker demand from a key market. Demand from India could face headwinds as refiners favour cheaper soyoil, although expectations for strong August vegetable oil imports may provide some support. Losses were partly cushioned by a weaker ringgit, which makes palm oil cheaper for overseas buyers. Firmer oil prices provided further support amid concerns over supply disruptions, while rising El Niño risks raised worries about drier conditions and potential production losses across Southeast Asia.

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