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The Philippine peso weakened back toward the 61-per-dollar mark in early August after briefly touching a six-week high earlier this week, as markets reassessed the country’s economic outlook amid slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures. Philippine GDP expanded 2.3% year-on-year in Q2, the slowest pace since Q4 2009 excluding the COVID-19 period, as the economy faced an energy shock stemming from the Iran war and the fallout from a major corruption scandal. The weaker-than-expected growth added to concerns over the recovery, after the government’s DBCC revised down its 2026 growth target in June. Meanwhile, inflation remained elevated at 6.2% in July despite easing for a third consecutive month, staying above the BSP’s 3% target and keeping expectations for further tightening intact. The BSP has raised rates by 50 bps since April, with analysts expecting another 50 bps of hikes this year through 25 bps increases at the August and October meetings.

Philippine Peso Falls Back Toward 61 Mark

Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell to USD 145.3 billion in July 2026 from USD 145.6 billion in June. The decline was mainly driven by government foreign debt repayments and Bank Indonesia's currency market interventions to support the rupiah amid renewed volatility in global financial markets, despite inflows from tax and service revenues and the issuance of government global bonds. The reserves remained robust, covering 5.5 months of imports or 5.3 months of imports and government external debt repayments, comfortably above the international adequacy benchmark of around three months. Bank Indonesia said the reserve buffer remains sufficient to safeguard external sector stability and support overall macroeconomic and financial system resilience. Looking ahead, the central bank expects the external sector to remain resilient, underpinned by ample foreign exchange reserves and sustained capital inflows.

Indonesia Forex Reserves Fall in July

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.78% on Friday, snapping a two-session decline as rebounding oil prices, driven by renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, reignited concerns about inflation and the interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s household spending fell 3.3% in June, defying expectations for a 1% increase and underscoring continued weakness in consumer demand. On the monetary policy front, investors are looking toward a possible Bank of Japan interest rate hike in September after the central bank left policy settings unchanged last week. Minutes from the July policy meeting showed that several board members expect consumer inflation to accelerate significantly in the second half of the current fiscal year as companies continue implementing broad-based price increases across a wide range of goods.

Japan 10-Year Yield Climbs as Oil Prices Rebound

China’s trade surplus widened to USD 112.5 billion in July 2026, up from USD 97.70 billion a year earlier and exceeding forecasts of USD 107 billion, as exports grew more than expected, fueled by soaring chip prices and global demand for AI data center hardware.

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