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The Ibovespa fell 0.9% to close at 206,495 on Wednesday amid election-related uncertainty. The index opened higher but reversed course after a Quaest poll showed challenger Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Lula nearly tied in the presidential runoff. The survey also found that 52% of respondents would “never” vote for Bolsonaro, compared with 47% for Lula, whose rejection rate fell six percentage points in a week. Although Bolsonaro has yet to detail his policy plans, investors view his candidacy as more likely to bring fiscal reforms that could pave the way for lower interest rates. Credit-sensitive stocks came under pressure, with financials mostly lower. Bradesco edged down, BB fell 0.4%, Itaúsa lost 0.6% and B3 erased earlier gains to close 0.8% lower. Retailers also mostly declined, with Magazine Luiza dropping 3.4%. Elsewhere, WEG plunged 7.3% after disappointing third-quarter margins. Vale fell 2.1% on lower iron ore prices. Petrobras lost 0.8% amid volatile oil prices.

Ibovespa Falls as Election Uncertainty Weighs

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.6% to close at 36,325 on Wednesday, supported by easing pressure on credit-sensitive stocks as oil prices fluctuated. Crude prices remained volatile ahead of next week’s Bank of Canada policy decision. A pause in the oil rally offered some relief to major banks, which have faced pressure from inflation concerns and elevated borrowing costs. RBC rose 1.2%, TD Bank gained 2%, BMO advanced 1.7% and Scotiabank added 1.6%. Still, markets expect the BoC to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting, while the federal budget is due on November 5. Elsewhere, mining stocks mostly advanced as gold prices edged higher, with Barrick gaining 0.6% and Franco-Nevada adding 0.9%. In technology, Shopify rose 0.4%, while Celestica gained 1.4%, tracking a rebound in US AI hardware stocks following strong results from SpaceX.

Canadian Stocks Gain as Oil Rally Eases

Brent crude rose above $109 a barrel on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses in a volatile session amid escalating attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said naval mines had halted three tankers attempting to use routes Tehran deemed unauthorized, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a vessel had been struck near Oman. Despite the security risks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were approaching prewar levels, while data from Kpler and Vortexa showed broader Middle Eastern exports had increased since the summer. Separately, Yemen’s Houthi militants claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, as well as airports in Riyadh and Abha. US EIA data showed crude inventories fell by just over 3 million barrels last week, below the 4.9 million-barrel decline reported by industry data.

Brent Tops $109 Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions

Crude oil prices wavered below $98 a barrel on Wednesday after briefly reaching $100 in a volatile session. Rising crude flows from the Middle East have begun to weigh on prices, with producers ramping up shuttle shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Tanker-tracking services indicate flows have surpassed pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose 7.9% in August to their highest level since March. Meanwhile, Russia is set to send its first diesel tanker to the US on Thursday under an agreement between Presidents Trump and Putin. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said Washington is looking to work with India’s Reliance Industries to refine Western energy supplies. However, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, while record-high freight rates in the Persian Gulf continue to put upward pressure on oil prices.

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