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The Euro Area’s annual inflation rate was revised higher to 2.6% in March 2026, the highest level since July 2024, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.5% and accelerating from 1.9% in February. The increase was largely driven by energy, with prices rising 5.1%, the first annual gain in nearly a year and the strongest since February 2023, compared to the initial estimate of 4.9%, as the conflict with Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher. On the other hand, a slowdown was seen in inflation for services (3.2% vs 3.4%), non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.7%) and food, alcohol and tobacco (2.4% vs 2.5%).

Euro Area Inflation Rate Jumps More than Estimated

The Swiss franc hovered around 0.78 per USD, near its highest since July 2011, as optimism over a permanent truce between the US and Iran has diminished safe-haven demand for the greenback. Easing geopolitical concerns reduced fears of a prolonged energy and inflationary shock, while also dampening expectations of a more hawkish stance by major central banks. Meanwhile, the SNB minutes from the latest March meeting pointed to increasing uncertainty over Switzerland’s economic outlook, with global developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, seen as key inflation risks. Policymakers noted that, given heightened geopolitical tensions and safe-haven flows, the SNB is likely to remain highly willing to intervene in FX markets to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the franc that could undermine price stability in Switzerland.

Swiss Franc Hovers at 2011-Highs

Italy’s 10-year bond yield hovered around 3.8%, staying only slightly below the 2023-highs reached earlier this month, as persistent inflation concerns continued to anchor borrowing costs at elevated levels. Optimism over diplomatic progress in the US–Iran conflict has done little to ease pressure on bond markets, with investors still demanding a higher risk premium amid ongoing uncertainty and expectations of further ECB rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in two 25bps rate hikes by the ECB this year, down from three expected just a few weeks ago. Earlier in the week, ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that elevated energy costs have pushed the eurozone off its baseline economic trajectory, but did not indicate any immediate rate action. Italy, Europe’s most gas-dependent economy, remains highly exposed: natural gas makes up 38% of its energy mix, and it is the EU’s top Persian Gulf LNG importer.

Italy’s 10-Year Yield Eases Marginally from Recent Highs

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield hovered around 3%, staying close to the 15-year highs reached earlier this month, as persistent inflation concerns continued to anchor borrowing costs at elevated levels. Optimism over diplomatic progress in the US–Iran conflict has done little to ease pressure on bond markets, with investors still demanding a higher risk premium amid ongoing uncertainty and expectations of further ECB rate hikes. Reports indicate that the US and Iran are considering a two-week extension of the ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations, with a second round of talks expected soon. This has helped ease oil prices from their recent peaks. Against this backdrop, markets are now pricing in two 25bps rate hikes by the ECB this year, down from three expected just a few weeks ago. Earlier in the week, ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that elevated energy costs have pushed the eurozone off its baseline economic trajectory, but did not indicate any immediate rate action.

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