Signals that the US and Iran were converging toward a deal to end their conflict will maintain the global spotlight on the outlook of energy supply from the Middle East. Additionally, the Fed will decide on its policy rate on Chairman Warsh's first meeting. Also in the policy front, the BoE, BoJ, RBA, Riksbank, SNB, Norges Bank, and BCB will also set rates. Germany will post sentiment indicators, while Japan will release its inflation rate and machinery orders- US retail sales, trade terms, and industrial production will shape their economic calendar. Meanwhile, the UK will post its inflation rate, retail sales, and labor market data. China's monthly data-dump week will include industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate, housing prices, and fixed asset investment. Lastly, local elections in the UK could shape the futures of incumbent PM Starmer.

Week Ahead - Jun 15th

Crude oil fell more than 3% to below $85 per barrel on Friday, reaching an eight-week low as hopes increased that the US and Iran could be close to an interim peace agreement, despite remaining uncertainties. Officials said both sides are moving toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially in time for the upcoming G7 meeting. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries had never been closer, supporting expectations that the prolonged conflict could be nearing an end. However, traders remain cautious after previous reports of breakthroughs failed to materialize. Risks remain, with reports of US forces intercepting Iranian drones near commercial vessels. Prices briefly recovered after President Trump cast doubt on the reported draft agreement, saying the published terms did not reflect the agreement discussed.

Crude Falls on Hopes of US-Iran Deal

The FTSE MIB Index gained 992 points or 1.97 percent on Friday to close at 51497 points. Gains were led by Buzzi Unicem (5.67%), Mediobanca (4.38%) and Unipol Gruppo (4.33%).

The FTSE MIB Index Closes 1.97% Higher

The Euro STOXX 50 gained 2% and the STOXX Europe 600 closed 1.8% higher on Friday amid lower oil prices after the Iranian foreign ministry claimed it was close to a deal with the US. The statement improved confidence over the gradual return of energy exports from the Persian Gulf after conflicting rhetoric from US President Trump added volatility to the session. Sovereign yields fell and banks benefited from the improved outlook for credit, with Deutsche Bank surging 6.6% while Santander and BNP Paribas advanced over 5%. Meanwhile, ASML added 3.4%, tracking the AI infrastructure sector after SpaceX gained 15% in its IPO, adding to cash for AI companies to spend on chips and data centers. Yesterday, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years and indicated that a restrictive monetary stance could remain through 2027.

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Week Ahead - Jun 15th

Crude Falls on Hopes of US-Iran Deal

The FTSE MIB Index Closes 1.97% Higher

European Stocks Close Sharply Higher