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Japan’s industrial production dropped 2.0% month-over-month in February 2026, compared with flash data of a 2.1% decline and after a 4.3% growth in the previous month. It marked the first contraction since last November, dragged by lower output for motor vehicles (-3.6% vs 8.1% in January), fabricated metals (-5.9% vs 6.0%), and electronic parts and devices (-3.5% vs 1.9%). In contrast, production grew for iron, steel and non-ferrous metals (2.4% vs 2.3%), chemicals, excluding inorganic, organic chemicals, and medicine (1.7% vs 3.6%), and pulp, paper and paper products (1.6% vs 0.7%). On an annual basis, output grew 0.4%, slowing from a 0.7% rise in January and pointing to the third straight month of increase.

Japan Industrial Output Decline Confirmed

Copper futures traded near $6 per pound on Tuesday, hovering around six-week highs as the US and Iran signaled readiness to resume negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce expires. President Donald Trump said Tehran had reached out to Washington just hours after the US launched a naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices eased on expectations of a potential agreement, helping reduce inflationary and growth concerns that have recently pressured industrial metals markets. In Chile, the new government is seeking to accelerate copper output beyond earlier projections by streamlining permitting processes and implementing regulatory reforms. In corporate developments, Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc is also exploring early-stage opportunities in Argentina amid broader policy shifts.

Copper Holds Firm on US-Iran Deal Hopes

The South Korean won hovered around 1,485 per dollar, remaining near a one-month high, as investors reassessed the prospect of continued dialogue between the US and Iran. Markets have begun to price a partial de-escalation in US–Iran tensions, but uncertainty remains elevated as recent negotiations proved inconclusive and key flashpoints such as the Strait of Hormuz remain active risk factors. This keeps safe-haven demand for the US dollar broadly supported, limiting any meaningful KRW rebound. At the same time, oil prices, while off recent highs, remain elevated compared to pre-shock levels, sustaining Korea’s energy import burden and reinforcing structural demand for dollars. With no strong domestic catalyst from policy or capital inflows, the won continues to lack an independent support driver. Meanwhile, the dollar has only eased marginally, leaving KRW movements largely range-bound and sensitive to headline-driven shifts in global risk sentiment.

South Korean Won Remains Under Pressure

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.78% on Tuesday, marking a third straight session of declines and hitting a six-week low, following weaker-than-expected trade data. Export growth slowed markedly to a five-month low of 2.5% year-on-year, reaching USD 321.03 billion, while imports surged 27.8% to a record high of USD 511.3 billion, marking the strongest pace of growth since November 2021. This resulted in the trade surplus narrowing sharply to a more than one-year low of USD 51.13 billion in March 2026 from USD 101.93 billion a year earlier and was well below expectations of USD 112 billion. Sentiment was also influenced by renewed diplomatic signals between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said Tehran had sought a potential deal, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled openness to talks if they remain consistent with international law. The remarks followed earlier failed negotiations and the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

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