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The Ibovespa rose 0.9% to close at 206,220 on Thursday ahead of the first Datafolha poll for the presidential runoff, due shortly after the close. A PoderData/Aya poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 53% of valid votes, against 47% for incumbent Lula. In Sunday’s first-round election, Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, contrary to most polls, pushing the index to an all-time high on Monday, led by financial stocks. Markets view the senator as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. His economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Financials traded mixed, with B3 gaining 2% and Bradesco falling 1.3%. Petrobras followed the sharp rise in international oil prices, gaining 2.1%. Retail stocks also supported the index, with Magazine Luiza jumping 5.6%. Meanwhile, Vale extended its losing streak to four sessions, falling 1.6% as iron ore prices hit an 18-month low in China.

Ibovespa Gains Ahead of Election Runoff Poll

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged 0.3% higher on Thursday, supported by gains in the energy and related industrial services sectors. Oil prices surged throughout the session on reports that the US is planning new strikes against Iran, risking the recent rebound in Middle Eastern oil exports. Energy producers gained, with Canadian Natural up 3%, Cenovus adding 2.5%, Suncor rising 3.7% and Imperial Oil advancing 2.6%. Enbridge rose 1.1% and TC Energy gained 1.6%. Mining shares picked up as gold prices firmed, with Agnico Eagle rising 1.7%, Barrick up 1.8% and WPM adding 0.9%. Global yields remained elevated amid intensifying inflationary pressures from high oil and fuel prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve backdrop. Financials posted losses, with RBC losing 0.7%, BMO down 1%, CIBC shedding 0.6% and National Bank falling 1.7%. The tech sector tracked losses on Wall Street, with Shopify down 1%.

TSX Edges Higher as Energy Stocks Rally

The Dow Jones Index rose 52 points or 0.10 percent on Thursday to close at 51232 points. Leading the gains are Home Depot (3.38%), Chevron (3.11%) and IBM (2.79%). Top losers were Nvidia (-2.90%), Amazon (-2.18%) and Cisco Systems (-2.10%).

The Dow Jones Index Closes 0.10% Higher

Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel in a volatile session on Thursday as Iran ramped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias threatened US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. Nine tankers have come under attack in and around Hormuz over the past week, jeopardizing the recent recovery in crude oil flows through the strait. About 9.5 million bpd exited Hormuz in the week ended Tuesday, around 30% below normal levels before the Iran war. In the Gulf of Mexico, oil companies have shut in about 500,000 bpd, or 25% of offshore production, as Hurricane Isaias moves toward the Alabama, Mississippi and Florida Panhandle coasts. Prices had earlier retreated from session highs after US President Donald Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Earlier reports indicated that Trump and his national security team were considering renewed strikes in the coming weeks.

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Ibovespa Gains Ahead of Election Runoff Poll

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Japan Household Spending MoM

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