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South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 8.50%, up from recent three-month lows, tracking US peers. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller fueled concerns over further monetary tightening. Meanwhile, oil prices extended their decline amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement, improving the domestic inflation outlook. As a net oil importer, South Africa is also expected to benefit from November’s fuel levy relief, helping lower costs for households and businesses. However, the sustainability of this relief will depend largely on international oil price movements in the coming months. Meanwhile, the results of last week's local elections showed that the ruling party ANC trailed its rivals in most of South Africa's major metropolitan areas. The setback has weakened its bargaining position in the upcoming coalition talks, reducing its influence over the formation of city governments.

South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Rise From 3-Month Lows

The Swiss 10-year government bond yield rose above 0.45%, recovering from its lowest level in two months and tracking US Treasury yields higher as stronger-than-expected US inflation lifted expectations of another Fed rate hike. In Switzerland, however, SNB Chairman Schlegel said there were no signs of a broadening in price pressures and that the central bank had fulfilled its mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term. Although inflation reached a three-year high in October amid a weaker franc and rising energy costs, energy accounts for only a small share of the Swiss CPI basket. A decline in oil prices amid expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East has also offered some relief. The SNB is expected to leave rates unchanged at 0% at its meeting next month. While markets anticipate a hike in early 2027, economists expect the first increase only in late 2027.

Swiss Bond Yields Rise From 2-Month Low

The Brazilian real weakened to its lowest in over two weeks at 5.60 per USD on November 10th amid prospects of a narrower US-Brazil interest-rate differential. Hotter-than-expected October inflation reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve hikes. A narrower differential would pressure the real by reducing carry trade. The real also remains weighed down by domestic issues, including a challenging outlook of weaker growth, higher inflation and fiscal uncertainty after President Lula’s reelection. Meanwhile, the Copom minutes maintained the previous statement’s hawkish tone, reiterating that unanchored inflation expectations require tighter monetary conditions for longer. The BCB held the Selic rate at 13.75% at its latest meeting, pausing its easing cycle. In the minutes, the bank identified impacts from supply shocks on prices and demand-side inflationary pressures, but noted that the slowdown in economic activity could intensify.

Brazilian Real Hits Two-Week Low

The South African rand weakened slightly to around 16.5 per US dollar, pressured by a stronger greenback and falling prices of key precious metals. The decline came as hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments from a senior Federal Reserve official reinforced expectations of a possible 50-basis-point rate hike in December. Meanwhile, the continued drop in oil prices amid easing concerns over US-Iran tensions helped alleviate some concerns about imported inflation. At home, latest data painted a gloomy picture, with unemployment reaching an over four-year high of 33.7% in Q3 and manufacturing activity declining for a second straight month in September. On the political front, South Africa’s ANC has suffered its worst-ever local election result, weakening its position in coalition negotiations and signalling a shift away from decades of electoral dominance towards a more competitive multiparty system.

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