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Indonesian stocks rose 40 points, or 0.7%, to 5,367 on Thursday morning deals, up for the third straight session as most sectors advanced. Sentiment was buoyed by Bank Indonesia’s latest move to hold its key rate at 5.75% for a fourth month while raising its deposit facility rate by 25bps to support the rupiah. The central bank also gradually cut RRR from Nov. 1, aiming to free up around IDR 190 trillion into the banking system. However, gains were constrained by remarks from President Prabowo, who accused MSCI of trying to frighten Indonesia, after proposing to strip the country of emerging-market status and reclassifying it as a “standalone” market. Meanwhile,  U.S. equity futures weakened amid persistent concerns over returns from heavy tech spending.  Non-cyclicals, energy, healthcare, and financials drove the strength, with Merdeka Battery Materials (4.0%), Aneka Tambang (3.3%), and Telkom Indonesia (1.9%) among early standouts. The four big banks rallied between 1.8% and 2.5%.

BI Support Lifts Indonesian Equities for 3rd Session

The US dollar index held steady near 101.7 on Thursday, pausing its recent decline as investors prepared for next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks last Friday did little to shift expectations for a rate hold, although markets continued to anticipate a possible rate hike in December amid persistent energy-driven inflation. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are also expected to leave rates unchanged next week. Meanwhile, recent economic data pointed to signs of weakness in the US economy, with September housing starts declining and pending home sales falling to a record low. Oil prices also climbed following a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field that killed two people, while the US ordered some personnel and family members to leave American embassies in Saudi Arabia, adding to concerns over inflationary pressures.

Dollar Stabilizes as Fed Meeting Eyed

Corn futures rose above $4.6 per bushel, but remained close to a two-month low as weak export demand and expectations for a record-large US crop continued to weigh on prices. US export inspections plunged nearly 49% week-on-week to 672,475 metric tons in the week ended October 15, marking the lowest weekly total since October 2024, while shipments for the 2026/27 marketing year trailed the previous year's pace by 2.3%. Meanwhile, the US harvest reached 44% completion as of October 18, up from 33% a week earlier, with drier Midwest weather expected to accelerate fieldwork and increase supplies reaching the market. The USDA's October outlook projected record production of 16.03 billion bushels and ending stocks of 1.849 billion bushels, reinforcing concerns over ample availability. Although the USDA raised its export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels, improving harvest progress and disappointing shipments have kept the market under pressure.

Corn Remains Near a 2-Month Low

European natural gas prices held above €87/MWh on Thursday, hovering just below their highest levels in nearly four years, as constrained Middle Eastern LNG supplies and low storage levels heightened concerns over winter availability. Recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have raised doubts about how quickly regional gas shipments can recover, with LNG exports running around 80% below year-ago levels. Alternative suppliers have limited capacity to rapidly compensate for the loss of Gulf exports, increasing the risk of tight market conditions persisting into 2027. European gas storage stood at 74.58% capacity as of October 21, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2009, leaving the region with a limited supply buffer as winter approaches.

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