The war in the Middle East and its impact on energy supply will continue to dictate global markets and will play a key part in a series of rate decisions from major monetary authorities. The Federal Reserve will headline such decisions in Chair Powell's second-to-last meeting in his term. Policy setting is also featured for G10 monetary authorities in the ECB, BoJ, BoE, SNB, RBA, BoC, and the Sveriges Riksbank, in addition to central banks in China, Brazil and Russia. Regarding economic data, key releases include the US PPI and industrial production, the Eurozone trade balance, the UK and Australian unemployment rate, and the Canadian inflation rate. Additionally, China will release its industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, housing prices, and fixed-asset investment.

Week Ahead - Mar 16th

Paraguay's trade swung to a deficit of 77.5 million dollars on February 2026 from a surplus of 75.5 million dollars a year ealier as higher soybean exports offset earlier declines. Total exports reached 2.72 billion dollars which is a 1.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Primary product sales climbed to 783.3 million dollars led by soybeans while agricultural manufactures fell to 620.7 million dollars and industrial products grew to 338.3 million dollars. Fuel and energy exports reached 157.4 million dollars. Total imports rose 3.6% to 2.80 billion dollars due to high demand for machinery and consumer goods. Primary product imports were led by corn for sowing and tobacco while industrial imports remained strong. Fuel and lubricant imports continued to fall as international prices shifted.

Paraguay Trade Swings to Deficit in February

The FTSE MIB index closed 0.3% lower at 44,316 on Friday, a third consecutive session in the red as the surge in energy prices and bond yields further dented the outlook for the Italian economy. The pro-inflationary risks from the energy supply shock drove a portion of rate traders to price and ECB rate hike by July. Banks fell further after the surge in BTP yields dented their balance sheets and increased worsened the outlook for credit demand, driving UniCredit to drop 1.5% to their lowest since November. In the meantime, Stellantis dropped over 4% to extend its recent rout. Still, the index's surge on Tuesday was enough to carry a slight increase on the week.

Italian Stocks Close Lower for 3rd Session

Gold prices dropped below $5,050 per ounce on Friday as a strengthening US dollar and fading expectations for interest rate cuts outweighed the traditional safe haven appeal of the precious metal. The dollar strengthened as investors sought liquidity following the announcement of the largest wave of strikes yet against Iranian targets and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While geopolitical volatility typically drives bullion demand, the threat of persistent inflation from crude oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel has shifted the focus toward yield bearing assets. Market participants have largely discarded the possibility of rate cuts in 2026 as rising energy costs complicate the path toward price stability. This surge in the greenback and Treasury yields has forced liquidations as investors sell gold to cover margin calls and raise cash. The metal is now set for a second straight weekly decline despite the ongoing regional conflict.

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Week Ahead - Mar 16th

Paraguay Trade Swings to Deficit in February

Italian Stocks Close Lower for 3rd Session

Gold Back on the Defensive