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US sugar futures extended their downward trend to trade around 18.5 cents per pound, the lowest since September, pressured by the weakness of the Brazilian real, fund selling and lower oil prices. The release of data showing a significant increase in Indian sugar production also weighed on prices. According to a major industry body, India’s sugar production surged by 745% year-on-year in October, as mills in Maharashtra began crushing sugarcane earlier than usual to boost supplies ahead of the festive season. In Brazil, however, recent data showed that sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil declined during the first half of October, as persistent rainfall across the Center-South disrupted harvesting and delayed mill operations. El Niño appears to be affecting the region earlier than expected, with excessive rainfall complicating production prospects and raising uncertainty over the start of the next harvest.

Sugar Futures at Over 1-Month Low

The Brazilian real weakened to around 5.50 per US dollar in November, its weakest level since briefly touching 5.60 immediately after President Lula’s runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro. Investors monitored the upcoming Copom decision after the first Focus Bulletin since the election showed higher forecasts for inflation, interest rates and the dollar. In contrast, growth expectations were revised down. In addition, the S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing PMI for October remained in contraction territory. Most market participants expect the benchmark Selic rate to remain unchanged at 13.75% per year, amid concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook. Concerns about the lack of fiscal adjustment have intensified amid uncertainty over key appointments, including the Finance Minister, and the direction of fiscal policy during Lula’s next term.

Brazilian Real Slips Ahead of BCB Monetary Policy Decision

The S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in October 2026 from 50.3 in September, slipping below the neutral 50.0 mark and signaling a marginal deterioration in the sector. Factory output fell at the fastest pace in six months, extending the downturn that began in July 2024. New orders increased for a sixth consecutive month, but growth was marginal and the weakest in this period. Employment declined at the fastest rate since May, while purchasing activity contracted for a third month. Pre-production inventories fell for a thirteenth consecutive month, while finished goods stocks edged higher. Input cost inflation accelerated to a three-month high, but selling price inflation slowed to its weakest pace since April. Business confidence improved on expectations of recovering demand and higher investment. New export orders also returned to growth.

Mexico Manufacturing PMI Returns to Contraction

The number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs in the United States surged by 321,000 over a month to 3.37 million in September 2026, reaching the highest level since March 2025. Over the year, total nonfarm quits increased by 375,000. Quits increased primarily in accommodation and food services (+197,000) but decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-19,000). The quits rate inched up to 2.1% in September from 1.9% in the month before.

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