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US gasoline futures rose to $2.75 a gallon but remained near their lowest level since early March, as traders weighed tight fuel supplies against expectations of faster progress towards ending the US-Iran war. Iran reported that three tankers had been damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the risks to shipping through the vital waterway. Supply concerns were reinforced by EIA data showing US gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels in the week ending October 30th, leaving stocks persistently below their five-year average. An EIA report also pointed to an expected shift among US refiners away from gasoline towards middle distillates, including distillate fuel oil and jet fuel, as those carry more attractive prices. Seasonal refinery maintenance could further constrain gasoline supplies. However, a Democratic takeover of the US Congress raised the prospect of greater constraints on military escalation and renewed diplomatic efforts.

Gasoline Holds Near March Lows

Copper fell below $6.30 per pound, the lowest since July 17, as concerns over tighter regulation and opposition to AI data center projects raised doubts about future demand for the metal. Technology stocks plunged, with an ETF tracking US-listed semiconductor companies losing more than 12%, after Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. The political shift could increase scrutiny of data center development, potentially delaying or blocking infrastructure projects that had been expected to drive significant copper consumption. Democratic gubernatorial victories in several states, including Texas, could expose around half of proposed US AI data center additions to greater regulatory challenges. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has repeatedly called for an immediate moratorium on new data center projects. Copper reached a record high of $6.8 on September 10, partly on AI-related demand.

Copper Falls to 3-1/2-Month Low

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 3.25%, reaching its lowest level since late August, as investors rotated out of technology stocks following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and sought safer assets such as government bonds. Global bond yields also declined, tracking lower US Treasury yields, as the Democratic takeover of the House was seen as reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration and easing concerns over US government borrowing. However, rising eurozone inflation and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from ECB policymakers continued to reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy. Annual eurozone inflation climbed to a fresh three-year high of 4.0% in October, largely driven by surging energy prices. Despite leaving interest rates unchanged last week, ECB officials signaled that further hikes may be necessary to contain inflationary pressures and prevent them from feeding through into wages.

Bund Yield Falls to Lowest Level Since August

France’s 10-year OAT yield fell to 4.7%, its lowest level since September 23, as investors shifted away from technology stocks following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and sought safer assets such as government bonds. Global bond yields also moved lower, tracking declining US Treasury yields, as the Democratic takeover of the House was seen as reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration and easing concerns over US government borrowing. However, persistent concerns over France’s domestic fiscal outlook continued to weigh on French government bonds, limiting the decline in yields. Meanwhile, accelerating eurozone inflation and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from ECB policymakers reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. Despite leaving interest rates unchanged last week, ECB officials signaled that further hikes may be necessary to contain inflation and prevent price pressures from feeding into wages.

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