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Mexico's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at its August meeting, in line with market expectations. Policymakers said the decision reflects an appropriate degree of monetary restraint as inflation continues to ease while risks remain tilted to the upside. Annual inflation slowed to 3.10% in the first half of July from 3.55% in mid-June, while core inflation eased to 3.95%. The central bank noted that inflation is expected to continue declining gradually, with headline inflation projected to converge to the 3% target in the fourth quarter of 2027. Banxico also highlighted that Mexico's economy rebounded in the second quarter after contracting in the previous quarter, although downside risks to growth persist. The board reiterated that it expects to keep the benchmark rate at its current level, citing uncertainty related to geopolitical conflicts, global trade policies, and their potential impact on inflation.

Mexico Keeps Benchmark Rate Unchanged

Brazil's trade surplus widened 1.0% year-on-year to $7.07 billion in July 2026, below market expectations of an $8.4 billion surplus. Exports rose 6.2% to $34.12 billion. Agricultural exports increased 9.3%, led by live animals (29.9%), soybeans (17.4%), and raw cotton (27.2%). Shipments from extractive industries advanced 10.8%, supported by other crude minerals (55.5%), base metal ores and concentrates (101.5%), and crude petroleum (23.8%). Manufacturing exports rose 2.4%, boosted by pulp (30.8%), fuel oils excluding crude (63.0%), and vegetable fats and oils (149.5%). Meanwhile, imports climbed 7.6% to $27.05 billion, driven by a 31.4% increase in extractive industry purchases and a 6.9% rise in manufacturing imports, led by pharmaceuticals (44.1%), fuel oils (31.4%), and data processing equipment (216.7%).

Brazil Trade Surplus Misses Forecasts

Brent extended its gains, rising more than 4% to $82.8 per barrel on Thursday, after reports that an Iranian parliamentary committee is analyzing a draft proposal outlining restrictive conditions for ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposal, Iran would prohibit US and Israeli vessels from transiting Hormuz and require countries deemed hostile to pay compensation before being granted passage. Tehran also proposed imposing penalties on violators equivalent to 20% of the value of the cargo carried by a vessel and stated that a full reopening of the strait would depend on the lifting of the US maritime blockade. Meanwhile, Houthi forces in Yemen claimed on Thursday to have launched attacks on Saudi troop positions, adding to geopolitical concerns across the region. Earlier in the day, US officials reiterated their confidence that a nuclear agreement with Iran was within reach, although investors remained cautious about the prospects for a durable and lasting peace.

Brent Rises More Than 4%

Crude oil extended its gains, rising 3% to $77.5 per barrel on Thursday, after reports that an Iranian parliamentary committee is analyzing a draft proposal outlining restrictive conditions for ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposal, Iran would prohibit US and Israeli vessels from transiting Hormuz and require countries deemed hostile to pay compensation before being granted passage. Tehran also proposed imposing penalties on violators equivalent to 20% of the value of the cargo carried by a vessel and stated that a full reopening of the strait would depend on the lifting of the US maritime blockade. Meanwhile, Houthi forces in Yemen claimed on Thursday to have launched attacks on Saudi troop positions, adding to geopolitical concerns across the region. Earlier in the day, US officials reiterated their confidence that a nuclear agreement with Iran was within reach, although investors remained cautious about the prospects for a durable and lasting peace.

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