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The CAC 40 index finished 0.8% higher at 7,726 on Monday, extending afternoon gains as market confidence stabilized following a pivot toward diplomacy in the Middle East. The rally was firmly anchored by President Trump’s confirmation of productive dialogue with Tehran and a five-day suspension of military action, a development that effectively neutralized the immediate threat to energy security and global trade routes. While the broader easing of geopolitical tension pressured TotalEnergies down 1.3% amid falling crude prices, the prospect of lower input and logistical costs catalyzed a surge in cyclical and industrial heavyweights, with Airbus advancing 3.4% and Safran rising 2.%. Luxury bellwether LVMH gained 1.9% as easing global risks bolstered the outlook for high-end discretionary spending.

CAC 40 Starts the Week in Possitive Territory

Sunflower oil futures rebounded toward $1,630 per tonne as the market grappled with a sharp divergence between easing geopolitical tensions and a looming collapse in global physical inventories. While crude oil benchmarks plummeted following President Trump’s announcement of productive negotiations with Iran, the sunflower oil complex is increasingly decoupling from the energy sector due to a projected 15% drop in global ending stocks to their lowest level in years. The National Sunflower Association’s forecasted a 19% production decline in Ukraine and a similar contraction in EU output, leaving crushers bidding for limited seed supplies to fulfill existing export contracts. Although the temporary 5-day delay in US strikes on Iranian infrastructure has calmed the broader commodity markets, sunflower oil remains insulated from the energy-led retreat as the "bean-oil palm-oil" spread widens and alternatives like palm oil continue to trade at a premium due to logistical bottlenecks.

Sunflower Oil Rebounds

Corn futures retreated $4.6 per bushel from April highs as de-escalation hopes of Middle Eastern hostilities removed the geopolitical risk premium that previously inflated the entire grain complex. This downward pressure is primarily driven by a sharp decline in crude oil prices following productive negotiations between the US and Iran, threatening to erode the demand floor for corn-based ethanol. While the recent rally was supported by a 30% spike in urea fertilizer prices and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the postponement of military strikes has calmed global markets and reduced concerns over the 12% of global urea capacity tied to the region. Lower energy costs are also mitigating fears of a surge in grain transportation and production expenses, prompting a pullback in the speculative capital that had entered the market to hedge against supply chain disruptions.

Corn Declines From April Highs

Rice futures rose eased to around $11 per hundredweight, the lowest in two weeks, following broader movements in grain markets. President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US had held talks with Iran about a possible end to the conflict and had withdrawn his 48-hour ultimatum helped to calm global markets. The Middle East crisis have been pushing up insurance premiums, container freight rates, and fuel costs, while disrupting shipping routes. Top producers in Asia, particularly India, have been hit hard. The conflict has severely affected India’s rice exports, leaving millers in key production regions grappling with unsold stock and mounting financial pressures. As the world’s largest exporter of aromatic basmati rice, India depends heavily on Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, who account for more than half of its shipments. Moreover, a fertilizer shortage poses a growing threat to global food security, potentially affecting production in major rice-growing regions.

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