United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

The Ibovespa fell 0.6% to close at 135,299 on Monday, as investors grappled with the prospect of a 50% US tariff on Brazilian exports, threatened alongside newly announced 30% duties on the EU and Mexico, which would directly pinch key commodity and manufacturing exporters. Domestically, May’s IBC-Br economic activity index fell 0.7% month-on-month, marking the first contraction of the year and underscoring a sharper slowdown than economists had forecast, driven in large part by weakness in agriculture and industry. Against this backdrop, corporate heavyweight stocks from Petrobras and Vale to Embraer have come under pressure, Petrobras fell 0.8% on concerns about fuel demand and refining margins, Vale dropped 1.3% on softer iron-ore prices, and Embraer was hit by looming aircraft tariffs, while financials have struggled amid tighter credit growth and talk of expanding the IOF tax on financial transactions.

Ibovespa Starts the Week in the Red

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.7% to close at a fresh record of 27,199 on Monday, as a wave of strength in technology and industrial names offset renewed US tariff jitters. Thomson Reuters powered the advance with an 7.7% surge after unveiling stronger-than-expected subscription growth, while Shopify vaulted 4.3% on the back of encouraging merchant metrics. Beneath the surface, Statistics Canada’s May wholesale trade data, showing a 0.1% gain led by personal and household goods, reinforced evidence of resilient domestic demand, and firm commodity prices lent additional underpinning to the market’s upside. Nonetheless, a broader rally was tempered by President Trump’s weekend threat of 30% duties on imports from the EU and Mexico, on top of Canada’s pending levies, reviving fears of a global trade slowdown and prompting a cautious rotation out of export-sensitive sectors.

TSX Hits All-Time High

US stocks closed slightly higher on Monday as investors weighed renewed tariff threats from President Trump against optimism over upcoming earnings and inflation data. The S&P 500 added 0.1%, the Dow rose 88 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%, supported by gains in tech stocks such as Meta and Netflix. Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico starting August 1, but hopes for continued negotiations helped ease investor concerns. Markets are also bracing for a wave of second-quarter earnings reports, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo set to report starting Tuesday. At the same time, investors await the June CPI report, which could reveal how earlier tariffs are affecting inflation and shape expectations for the Fed's next move. Among megacaps, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Broadcom traded lower, while Meta and Alphabet posted gains. Tesla rose 1% after Elon Musk said shareholders would vote on the company’s investment in xAI.

US Equities Gain Slightly Ahead of CPI, Despite Tariff Jitters

Consumer prices in Argentina rose 1.6% month-on-month in June 2025, rebounding from the lowest monthly inflation rate since May 2020 of 1.5% recorded in May and falling short of market expectations for a 1.9% increase. Prices accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.6% vs. 0.5% in May), transportation (1.6% vs. 0.4%), education (3.7% vs. 1.9%), housing and utilities (3.4% vs. 2.4%). Meanwhile, prices slowed for clothing and footwear (0.5% vs. 0.9%), restaurants and hotels (2.1% vs. 3.0%), communications (1.8% vs. 4.1%), and health (2.2% vs. 2.7%). On a year-on-year basis, consumer prices rose 39.4%, marking the 12th consecutive month of disinflation and the smallest increase since March 2021. That's down from 43.5% in May and projections of 39.8%.

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United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY