Trading Strategy: Intraday - Before the release of the US PCE data, set up short positions at high levels with small stop losses; Short-term breakout is biased towards the downside.

Resistance Levels: 2380; 2390 (stop loss) 

Support Levels: 2355; 2335; 2300 (short-term)

Fundamentals: Recently, the movement of gold has not been closely related to the sharp rise of the Japanese yen, the decline of the Chinese economy, the drop in US stocks, or the unsuccessful ceasefire negotiations. As can be seen from the chart, it is significantly negatively correlated only with US long-term bond yields. US long-term bonds are influenced by the Trump trade, showing a significant divergence from short-term bond yields. Gold is currently filling the large gap with long-term bonds, suggesting more room for a decline, but it will still be affected by US economic data. The drop in US stocks also puts pressure on gold.

Gold against the US Dollar (XAUUSD)

Jul 26 2024

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