Brent crude oil futures advanced 1% to settle at $70.6 per barrel on Friday, following a 1.5% loss in the previous session, as investors continued to weigh the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty over the Ukraine war. Despite Russian President Putin's conditional support for a ceasefire, confidence in a swift resolution has diminished. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, including China's and Russia's support for Iran and the expiration of a US energy sanctions license, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Macroeconomic uncertainties also kept oil under pressure, with the International Energy Agency warning of a growing supply surplus as an escalating trade war dampens demand while OPEC+ increases production. The IEA projects global supply to exceed demand by 600K barrels per day this year, with demand expected to rise by just 1.03 million barrels per day, 70K barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. The benchmark ended the week largely unchanged from last Friday's levels.

Brent Rises 1% Amid Geopolitical Tensions

WTI crude oil futures rose 0.9% to settle at $67.20 per barrel on Friday, following a more than 1% loss in the previous session, as investors continued to weigh the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty over the Ukraine war. Despite Russian President Putin's conditional support for a ceasefire, confidence in a swift resolution has diminished. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, including China's and Russia's support for Iran and the expiration of a US energy sanctions license, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Macroeconomic uncertainties also kept oil under pressure, with the International Energy Agency warning of a growing supply surplus as an escalating trade war dampens demand while OPEC+ increases production. The IEA projects global supply to exceed demand by 600K barrels per day this year, with demand expected to rise by just 1.03 million barrels per day, 70K barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. The benchmark ended the week largely unchanged from last Friday's levels.

Oil Gains Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Concerns

Copper futures eased to $4.85 per pound on Friday after reaching a nine-month high of $4.93 earlier in the session as fresh data dented the outlook for global manufacturing activity. Credit aggregates from top consumer China contracted in February to halt the strong momentum from the start of the year, limiting the outlook for the country's manufacturing. Also, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations slumped in the US, backing stagnation concerns. Still, futures held most gains from the month and were $0.4 above comparable contracts at the LME as worries around tariffs. President Trump signed an executive order to initiate a review on copper imports after noting he would tariff the metal in an earlier speech before Congress. Such a move would increase dependency on domestic capacity, which is limited to only two major smelters, as the US imports nearly half of its copper.

Copper Pulls Back from 9-Month High

Heating oil futures in the US fell toward $2.15 per gallon in March, reaching a three-month low, as rising global oil supply, trade uncertainties, and weakening demand weighed on prices. OPEC+ plans to increase output by 138,000 barrels per day in April, with Kazakhstan surpassing its quota, further boosting global supply and placing a cap on crude oil feedstock costs. Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs on Canadian oil has added volatility, raising concerns about potential disruptions to US supply and refining. Meanwhile, increased US natural gas production, combined with forecasts for milder weather in the next two weeks, is adding further pressure on heating oil prices, as natural gas competes for market share. Additionally, distillate stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels for the week ending March 7th, surpassing market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline, while heating oil inventories decreased by 183,000 barrels, marking the second consecutive drop.

Heating Oil Drops to 3-Month Low

Uranium futures were below $64 per pound in March, the lowest in 18 months amid a continuous backdrop of sufficient supply against uncertain demand. The new US Presidential administration signaled that it aims to secure economic ties with the Russia, ramping up bets that Washington may remove current sanctions against the import of Russian nuclear fuel. The latest estimates indicated that Russia hosted nearly half of the global uranium conversion and enrichment capacity, against a backdrop of plentiful supply of yellowcake fore Western enrichers with capacity constraints. In the meantime, markets reconsidered their speculative positions on nuclear power demand for US datacenters following the emergence of more efficient large language models in Europe and China. Consistently, Microsoft reportedly canceled leases on new datacenters, marking a contrast with the view that tech giants were racing to secure new power capacity.

Uranium Retreats to 18-Month Low

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which measures shipping rates for vessels transporting dry bulk commodities, was up for a seventh day on Friday, rising 19 points to its highest level since November 18 at 1,669 points. The panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, advanced for a sixth session, adding 65 points to a five-month high of 1,365 points; and the supramax index rose 35 points to a near 12-week high of 930 points. On the other hand, the capesize index, which typically tracks vessels transporting 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, eased 36 points to 2,857 points. For the week, the benchmark index advanced 18%, notching a fourth straight weekly gain.

Baltic Dry Index Rallies Continues

Lumber futures eased toward $630 per thousand board feet, retreating from a two-and-a-half-year high of $658, as erratic tariff policies from President Trump, and retaliatory measures from Canada and the European Union, strain global trade and stoke recession fears in the U.S. and Canada. However, the U.S. Producer Price Index recorded a softwood lumber surge of 11.7% over the past year, marking four consecutive months of double-digit annual growth. Tariff uncertainties have led builders to stockpile lumber to avoid potential tariffs on Canadian imports—a strategy that has historically pushed prices up by as much as 25%. Mills are preemptively hiking prices by 25% to 65% amid shifting trade policies and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, the Department of Commerce’s proposal to nearly triple anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood—from 14.5% to a potential 52%—adds further uncertainty, given that Canada supplies 30% of the softwood used in the U.S. for housing and furniture.

Lumber Eases Toward $630

Lithium carbonate prices fell past CNY 75,000 in March, the lowest in four months amid persistent pressure from an oversupplied market. Sales of electric vehicles by Chinese brands fell by 3% from the previous month amid fresh pressure in sales by SAIC, which were especially hit by sanctions from the EU and elsewhere due to China's subsidies of the sector. Still, investors expect battery inventories to remain elevated due to the lack of urgency for EV manufacturers to start new supply contracts. This is due to lithium miners refraining from closing operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers. Such developments were lastly underscored by CATL reopening a lithium mine in the Jiangxi province following its IPO in Hong Kong, while Ganfeng Lithium started its newest mining project in Salta, Argentina. Additionally, Rio Tinto aimed to enter the lithium market by buying US-based Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion.

Lithium Falls to 4-Month Low

Iron ore futures rebounded to CNY 795 per tonne from the two-month low of CNY 770 touched on March 10th, tracking other assets that benefit from higher economic activity in China after officials in Beijing announced they will implement a batch of measures to boost consumption. Besides the support for manufactured goods, the measures are expected to combat China's prolonged property crisis and prevent more developers from being liquidated, which are among the world's top steel consumers. Still, expectations that steel output may slow this year capped a higher rebound. The Chinese government stated they will cut capacity for steel producers, speculated by markets to equivalate cuts of around 50 million tons of steel per year. The capacity caps would target increasing concerns of overcapacity among blast furnaces and mills, stemmed by lower construction demand due to the country’s property crisis and a decreasing ability to offload steel to foreign customers.

Iron Ore Rebounds from 2-Month Low

Gold touched a $3,000 per ounce milestone on Friday, a fresh record high driven by risk aversion and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the latest escalation of US President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, he warned of a 200% tariff on European wine and other alcoholic beverages after the EU imposed a 50% tax on American whiskey exports. Meanwhile, recent PPI and CPI data signaled easing price pressures in February, giving the Fed more room to cut rates and boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold. Further supporting the metal are strong ETF demand and sustained central bank buying, with China extending its purchases for a fourth consecutive month. For the week, bullion is set for a gain of nearly 3%.

Gold Hits $3,000 Level

Tin futures rose to $33,420 per tonne, the highest since touching the four-month high of $33,675 on February 21st as geopolitical mishaps lowered supply from key producers. The advance of insurgent militant groups in the DR Congo drove Alphamin Resources to evacuate its tin mine in the region, one of the largest mines in the world. This magnified the impact of lower supply elsewhere, as export permits from Indonesia are expected to be delayed following bureaucratic breaks in the Lunar New Year, extending similar trends from the previous year. Additionally, reports indicated that Myanmar’s Man Maw mine has not yet been reinstated amid political conflicts in the major tin producer. Lower output from Myanmar’s Wa State in recent years has pressured the availability of ore for Chinese smelters, which continued to report tight conditions of feedstock availability at the turn of the year. On the demand front, increasing investment in hardware for AI technologies continued to underpin buying.

Tin Rises Toward 4-Month High

Copper futures rose to above $4.9 per pound on Friday, a nine-month high, and more than $0.4 higher than comparable contracts at the LME on expectations that the US will impose tariffs on copper, a move that would pressure the limited capacity for local smelters. President Trump signed an executive order to initiate a review on copper imports after noting he would tariff the metal in an earlier speech before Congress. The signals suggested that levies would be imposed later in the year, but the escalation on base metal tariffs on Canada sporadically announced by the White House ramped up concerns that barriers on copper may be expedited. Such a move would increase dependency on domestic capacity, which is limited to only two major smelters, as the US imports nearly half of its copper. In China, supply remained ample. Treatment charges by smelters were still below zero, reflecting the large extent of overcapacity in refined copper production in the major producer.

Copper Extends Rally to 9-Month High

European natural gas futures rose over 6% to above €41/MWh this week, ending a four-week losing streak, as colder weather increased heating demand and the market monitored potential ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia. Concerns persist over Europe's ability to refill gas storage ahead of winter, with current levels below 36% and a 90% target set for November 1. Hopes for a quick end to the Ukraine war, which could restore Russian gas flows, remain low. While Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed conditional support for a US-proposed ceasefire, his demands suggest no imminent resolution.

TTF Prices Snap 4-Week Losing Streak

US natural gas futures fell over 7% below $4.1/MMBtu this week, pressured by near-record output and forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks. Production in the Lower 48 states rose to 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, surpassing February's record of 105.1 bcfd. However, gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants also reached 15.6 bcfd, matching last month's record. The latest EIA report showed US utilities withdrew 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas for the week ending March 7, exceeding forecasts of 50-55 bcf. As a result, storage levels remain 27% lower than the same period last year and 11.9% below the five-year average.

US Natgas Prices Set for Weekly Fall

Iron ore futures climbed above $102 per tonne in mid-March, hitting a two-week high on expectations of additional stimulus measures from China, the world’s top consumer of the metal. Optimism grew as top government officials in Beijing prepared to hold a press conference on Monday to discuss policies aimed at boosting consumption. Chinese steelmakers also ramped up production during the peak construction season, driving hot metal output up to 2.31 million tons and further lifting iron ore demand. However, the Chinese government reaffirmed its commitment to limiting crude steel production due to concerns of overcapacity among blast furnaces and mills, a move expected to reduce steel output by 50 million tons annually. Adding to trade tensions, Vietnam increased dumping levies on Chinese steel, while South Korea, Brazil, and Chile signaled plans to implement similar measures.

Iron Ore Rises on China Stimulus Hopes

Malaysian palm oil futures were little changed, hovering around MYR 4,540 per tonne after a 1% surge in the previous session, as traders awaited export estimates from cargo surveyors for March 1–15, due over the weekend. In February, industry data showed shipments fell 16.27% to a four-year low of 1 million tons. Market participants also anticipated January-February activity data in key buyer China next week, notably industrial output and retail sales, which could signal future palm oil demand. For the week, futures are down 1.8% so far, reversing prior gains amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the global trade. These losses were cushioned, however, by a 35.7% surge in India’s February imports, likely due to stock replenishment and price advantages. On the supply side,  Malaysia's inventories fell for the fifth month to 1.51 million tons, the lowest since April 2023, while production dropped 4.16% to a three-year low of 1.19 million tons due to flood-related disruptions.

Palm Oil Heads for Weekly Losses

Gold hovered above $2,980 per ounce on Friday, a record high and poised for an over 2% weekly gain, driven by risk aversion and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the latest escalation of US President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, he warned of a 200% tariff on European wine and other alcoholic beverages after the EU imposed a 50% tax on American whiskey exports. Meanwhile, recent PPI and CPI data signaled easing price pressures in February, giving the Fed more room to cut rates and boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold. Further supporting the metal are strong ETF demand and sustained central bank buying, with China extending its purchases for a fourth consecutive month in February.

Gold Hovers at Record Peaks

SSE Consume Commodity Index increased to a 10-week high of 7964.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, SSE Consume Commodity Index gained 2.53%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 8.29%.

SSE Consume Commodity Index Hits 10-week High

Brent crude oil futures rose above $71 per barrel on Friday, trimming an over 1% loss in the previous session, supported by fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping. Washington targeted Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and Hong Kong-flagged vessels linked to a shadow fleet concealing Tehran’s crude exports. However, crude remained under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with the International Energy Agency warning that a supply surplus is set to grow as an escalating trade war weakens demand while OPEC+ increases production. The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand by about 600,000 bpd this year, driven by US-led supply growth, while demand is projected to rise by just 1.03 million bpd, 70,000 bpd below last month’s forecast. For the week, oil is heading for an eighth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since August 2015.

Brent Trims Losses

WTI crude oil futures rose toward $67 per barrel on Friday, trimming an over 1% loss in the previous session, supported by fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping. Washington targeted Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and Hong Kong-flagged vessels linked to a shadow fleet concealing Tehran’s crude exports. However, crude remained under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with the International Energy Agency warning that a supply surplus is set to grow as an escalating trade war weakens demand while OPEC+ increases production. The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand by about 600,000 bpd this year, driven by US-led supply growth, while demand is projected to rise by just 1.03 million bpd, 70,000 bpd below last month’s forecast. For the week, oil is heading for an eighth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since August 2015.

Oil Trims Losses

Platinum increased to a 4-week high of 1008.00 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Platinum lost 0.5%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 8.33%.

Platinum Hits 4-week High

Corn decreased to a 14-week low of 425.00 USd/BU. Over the past 4 weeks, Corn lost 9.07%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 4.04%.

Corn Hits 14-week Low

Heating Oil decreased to a 13-week low of 2.16 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil lost 11.42%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 19.43%.

Heating Oil Hits 13-week Low

Cotton futures dipped below 67 cents per pound, retreating from three-week highs reached on March 12, as a stronger dollar and profit-taking following a positive weekly export sales report weighed on prices. Declining oil prices added further pressure. The latest USDA weekly export sales report showed cotton exports reaching 403,500 running bales, a marketing-year high, up from the previous week and 39% above the four-week average. Meanwhile, the USDA’s March WASDE report for 2024-25 raised the global export outlook by 200,000 bales to 42.71 million, despite ongoing global uncertainties. The report also projected a 500,000-bale increase in global cotton production to 120.96 million bales, as higher output in China offsets declines in Pakistan and Argentina. Additionally, global domestic cotton consumption was revised upward to 116.54 million bales from the previous estimate of 115.95 million bales.

Cotton Retreats From 3-Week Highs

Wheat futures climbed above $5.45 per bushel, moving further away from a six-month low of $5.16 touched on March 4th, as investors welcomed signs of strong international demand. The USDA’s latest weekly Export Sales report showed U.S. wheat sales surged 84% above the prior four-week average and exceeded expectations, with major purchases from Panama, South Korea, and unidentified buyers. Year-to-date sales are now 69 million bushels ahead of last year, with the USDA projecting a 128-million-bushel increase. Meanwhile, Algeria secured at least 450,000 metric tons in a Wednesday tender, while Tunisia is seeking 100,000 tons in a tender on Thursday. On the supply side, Statistics Canada reported that Canadian farmers plan to expand wheat planting in 2025. Investors also monitored escalating trade tensions, as President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on European wines, champagnes, and other alcoholic beverages.

Wheat Gains on Strong Demand

Soybean futures rebounded to $10.00 per bushel, attempting to recover from a recent sell-off after Argentina lowered its production forecast below USDA estimates. Argentine soybean output for 2024/25 is now expected at 46.5 million metric tons (mmt), down from last month’s 47.5 mmt and below the USDA’s 49 mmt projection, as drought impacts persist despite signs of recovery. Adding support, the USDA's weekly Export Sales report showed stronger-than-expected U.S. soybean sales, with China leading purchases, followed by Indonesia and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the latest tariff announcements, with President Donald Trump escalating trade tensions with the EU and threatening 200% tariffs on European wines, champagnes, and other alcoholic beverages.

Soybeans Rebound on Lower Argentine Production

Copper futures rose to above $4.85 per pound on Thursday, a nine-month high, and more than $0.4 higher than comparable contracts at the LME amid expectations that US President Trump will impose tariffs on copper, a move that would pressure the limited capacity for local smelters. The President signed an executive order to initiate a review on copper imports after noting he would tariff the metal in an earlier speech before Congress. The signals suggested that levies would be imposed later in the year, but the escalation on base metal tariffs on Canada sporadically announced by the White House ramped up concerns that barriers on copper may be expedited. Such a move would increase dependency on domestic capacity, which is limited to only two major smelters, as the US imports nearly half of its copper. In China, supply remained ample. Treatment charges by smelters were still below zero, reflecting the large extent of overcapacity in refined copper production in the major producer.

Copper Surges to 9-Month High

Silver climbed toward $33.50 an ounce, its highest level since late October, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising tariff tensions and growing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts following weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Trade tensions escalated after President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on European wines, champagnes, and other alcoholic beverages in response to the EU’s 50% tariff on American whiskey. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that a recession would be "worth it" to implement Trump’s economic policies. On the economic front, U.S. producer prices were unexpectedly flat in February, while consumer inflation rose just 0.2%, below forecasts. Additionally, jobless claims fell again last week, signaling a still strong labor market.

Silver at Over 4-Month High

Gold prices surged about 1% to exceed $2,970 an ounce on Thursday, hitting fresh record highs as risk aversion intensified. Escalating trade tensions fueled the flight to safety, with US President Trump threatening a 200% tariff on wine and other alcoholic beverages from the EU in response to the bloc’s newly announced countermeasures. Geopolitical concerns also weighed on sentiment, as Russia signaled its refusal to the 30-day ceasefire accepted by Ukraine and backed by the US. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the US economic outlook persisted, with traders weighing the potential for a recession amid the fallout from the new tariffs.

Gold Prices Top New Record Levels

US natural gas futures edged up to around $4.1 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Thursday, following an 8.3% drop in the previous session after EIA data showed a slightly bigger-than-expected storage draw last week. US utilities withdrew 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending March 7, higher than the expected 50-55 bcf. Additionally, Canada’s energy minister hinted at potential trade measures, such as restricting oil exports to the U.S., which could tighten supply. Meanwhile, gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants increased to 15.6 bcfd so far in March, matching February's record. On the other hand, near-record output and expectations for milder weather in the next two weeks capped gains. Gas production in the Lower 48 states reached 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, surpassing the February record of 105.1 bcfd.

US Natgas Prices Rise Slightly after EIA Data

Silver increased to a 19-week high of 33.40 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Silver gained 3.84%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.44%.

Silver Hits 19-week High

GSCI decreased to a 11-week low of 538.70 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, GSCI Commodity Index lost 3.32%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 4.06%.

GSCI Hits 11-week Low

UK natural gas futures rose above 105 pence per therm, moving further away from the five-month low of 93.8 pence touched on March 6, as colder weather increases heating demand and markets watch for progress on a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire. Forecasts show temperatures staying below normal across Europe, with colder weather expected from March 18-21, driving further demand. Meanwhile, Russia is reviewing a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, though it has presented a list of demands to end the conflict and reset relations. Europe faces additional risks from rising Asian demand, which could intensify competition for LNG cargoes. EU gas storage is 26.23% full, with a target to reach 90% by November 1. The UK, with limited storage and reliance on European imports, remains vulnerable to supply disruptions.

UK Natural Gas Futures Inch Up

Newcastle coal futures fell to $101 per tonne, returning toward the near four-year low of $99 from February 28th as selected output curbs were not enough to outweigh the view that thermal coal is increasingly oversupplied. China announced that its output is set to expand 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons in 2025 following a record-setting 2024, aiming to expand mining capacity to avoid availability risks from carbon emission limits and mine shutdowns for safety protocol breaches. The development occurred as utilities already deal with record-high coal inventories, which rose by 12% in the two months ending October. Also, Indonesian output rose to a record high 836 million tonnes in 2024, 18% above its target, while the country’s increasing investment in alternative power sources limited the outlook for coal demand. Consequently, Glencore noted that multiple Australian coal producers, which especially impact the Newcastle grade, were considering shitting down as lower prices reduce margins.

Coal Retreats Toward 4-Year Low

Iron ore futures were at CNY 780 per tonne, holding most of the slump that bottomed at a two-month low of CNY 770 on March 10th on expectations that lower steel supply will limit demand for ferrous inputs. The Chinese government stated they will cut capacity for steel producers, speculated by markets to equivalate cuts of around 50 million tons of steel per year. The capacity caps would target increasing concerns of overcapacity among blast furnaces and mills, stemmed by lower construction demand due to the country’s property crisis and a decreasing ability to offload steel to foreign customers. This comes as dumping levies on Chinese steel were raised by Vietnam and pledges of similar measures from South Korea, Brazil, and Chile. In the meantime, domestic data pointed to a mixed backdrop for ferrous metals. Deflation persisted at the turn of the year as manufacturing demand remained muted, but the official construction PMI pointed to a rebound in activity at 52.7.

Iron Ore Holds Near 2-Month Low

Steel rebar futures rebounded to CNY 3,250 per tonne from the one-month low of CNY 3,209 touched on March 11th as markets reconsidered the impact of that Chinese policies may have on ferrous metal output and demand this year. The annual Two Sessions concluded with officials in Beijing signaling that capacity cuts for steel producers will be mandated to balance the downside risks to demand from trade barriers and the slowdown in domestic construction demand. Trade barriers were led by South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Brazil due to concerns of dumping by Chinese giants, adding to spillover impacts from US tariffs on Canadian steel. Additionally, the Chinese government signaled efforts to combat the oversupply in the property market and started to issue special bonds to buy land and property inventory from debt-ridden Vanke, aiding investors' confidence that state-backed constructors will not be liquidated.

Steel Rebounds from 1-Month Low

European natural gas futures rose to €42.5/MWh on Thursday, rebounding from a 3.7% loss in the previous session, as colder April weather forecasts boosted demand and uncertainty lingered over a potential Ukraine ceasefire. The market remains focused on Europe’s ability to replenish gas storage ahead of winter, with storage levels currently at 36.2% and a 90% target set for November 1. Ukraine signaled support for a US-backed 30-day ceasefire, but Russian President Vladimir Putin remains skeptical. Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure continue to pose risks. Despite efforts to diversify energy sources, the bloc still heavily depends on Russian LNG and appears to prioritize defense spending over further reducing these imports.

TTF Prices Rebound on Thursday

Copper futures held above $4.8 per pound on Thursday, hovering near the highest levels since May last year as US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the US will push ahead with tariffs on copper to encourage domestic production. The comments were made as US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum came into effect on Wednesday, with Lutnick stressing that these metals along with copper were among essential products that must be made in the US for national security reasons. Such a policy shift would increase reliance on limited domestic smelting capacity, as the US currently imports nearly half of its copper and operates only two major smelters. Meanwhile, in China, ample supply continues to weigh on the market, with treatment charges at smelters remaining below zero, signaling significant overcapacity in refined copper production.

Copper Prices Hold Gains Amid Tariff Concerns

Malaysian palm oil futures jumped around 1% to above MYR 4,500 per tonne after touching a low of MYR 4,454 in the previous session, supported by data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showing that India's palm oil imports surged 35.7% from the prior month to 373,549 metric tons in January. Meanwhile, Malaysian Palm Oil Board's latest data showed that inventories fell for the fifth straight month to 1.51 million tons in February, the lowest since April 2023, while production dropped 4.16% to a three-year low of 1.19 million tons as floods disrupted output.
However, gains were capped by signs of declining exports, as cargo surveyors reported a 25.8%-38.3% plunge in Malaysian palm oil shipments in the first ten days of March. In February, industry data noted shipments fell 16.27% to a four-year low of 1 million tons. Additionally, uncertainties lingered over the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies on global markets, including palm oil.

Palm Oil Trades Notably Higher

Gold rose to around $2,940 per ounce on Thursday, approaching record levels, as escalating global trade tensions continued to fuel safe-haven demand. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump warned of additional tariffs on EU goods after the EU and Canada retaliated against existing US trade barriers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also said that Trump would impose trade protections on copper as well. Meanwhile, both headline and core US inflation came in below expectations, reassuring investors about disinflation progress and giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility for a less restrictive stance. However, the impact of tariffs has yet to materialize, and inflation could rise again in the coming months.

Gold Approaches Record Highs

Brent crude oil futures eased below $71 per barrel on Thursday after gaining 2% in the previous session, as traders refocused on escalating global trade tensions. President Trump threatened more tariffs after the EU and Canada imposed retaliatory measures over US steel and aluminum levies. Ongoing tariff concerns, weak Chinese demand, and OPEC+ plans to boost output—including Kazakhstan exceeding its quota—continue to pressure the energy market. Meanwhile, oil found support on Wednesday as US data signaled strong domestic demand and slowing inflation, reassuring investors about disinflation progress. Government data also showed gasoline inventories fell nearly 6 million barrels to a January low, while crude stockpiles rose less than expected at 1.5 million barrels, with Cushing reserves declining.

Brent Falls on Trade Tensions

WTI crude oil futures eased to around $67.5 per barrel on Thursday after gaining over 2% in the previous session, as traders refocused on escalating global trade tensions. President Trump threatened more tariffs after the EU and Canada imposed retaliatory measures over US steel and aluminum levies. Ongoing tariff concerns, weak Chinese demand, and OPEC+ plans to boost output—including Kazakhstan exceeding its quota—continue to pressure the energy market. Meanwhile, oil found support on Wednesday as US data signaled strong domestic demand and slowing inflation, reassuring investors about disinflation progress. Government data also showed gasoline inventories fell nearly 6 million barrels to a January low, while crude stockpiles rose less than expected at 1.5 million barrels, with Cushing reserves declining.

Oil Falls on Trade Tensions

Palladium decreased 7.15% to 870.5 USD/t.oz

Palladium is down by 7.15%

Silver climbed over 1% to $32.30 per ounce on Wednesday, as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions and cooling U.S. inflation. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further fueled demand for precious metals, with the prospect of a lower interest rate environment adding to silver’s appeal. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation rising 0.2% in February, easing from January’s 0.5% increase. This sign of slowing inflation strengthened the outlook for Fed rate cuts later this year. Traders are now looking ahead to U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly jobless claims for further insight into the economic landscape. Meanwhile, trade tensions escalated as President Donald Trump imposed higher tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, fueling uncertainty and increasing silver’s appeal as a hedge.

Silver Gains on Trade Tensions, Rate Cut Hopes

Heating oil futures in the US fell toward $2.2 per gallon, nearing the over two-month low of $2.17 seen March 10th, amid rising global oil supply, trade uncertainties, and weakening demand. OPEC+ plans to boost output by 138,000 barrels per day in April, with Kazakhstan exceeding its quota, increasing global supply and capping prices. US tariff uncertainties, especially on Canadian oil, have added volatility, with the potential for disruptions to US supply and refining. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected demand from China and rising US natural gas production are further pressuring prices, as natural gas competes with heating oil for market share. Meanwhile, distillate stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decrease, for the week ending March 7th, while heating oil stockpiles decreased by 183 thousand barrels, marking the second consecutive decline.

Heating Oil Near 1-Month Low

US gasoline futures climbed above $2.15 per gallon, after data showed US gasoline inventories fell by nearly 6 million barrels to the lowest since early January, indicating robust consumer consumption. Crude oil stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels, below market expectations, while reserves at the Cushing hub declined. Meanwhile, markets weighed the potential impact of tariffs on Canadian oil, which could disrupt domestic supply and strain refining capacity in the Northern US. According to fuel distributor TACenergy, gasoline stations in New England faced higher costs on Canadian fuel shipments due to anticipated tariffs from US President Donald Trump. In geopolitical developments, Ukraine agreed to a US-backed 30-day truce with Russia, while Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis threatened to resume attacks on Israeli ships.

Gasoline Futures Rise on Strong Demand

WTI crude oil futures rose over 2% to above $67.5 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains for a second session as US data signaled strong domestic demand and easing inflation boosted market sentiment. US consumer prices increased at the slowest pace in four months, raising hopes for a more patient Federal Reserve. Government data showed gasoline inventories dropped by nearly 6 million barrels—the lowest since January—while crude stockpiles rose by a smaller-than-expected 1.5 million barrels, with reserves at Cushing declining. However, oil prices remain well below mid-January highs due to uncertainty over US tariffs, OPEC+ plans to raise output, and weakening demand in China. Gains were further capped by reports of rising OPEC+ production, including Kazakhstan exceeding its output quota. Meanwhile, Canada plans to announce $20.8 billion in counter-tariffs on US goods, and the Energy Information Administration lowered its global oil surplus forecast for 2025 and beyond.

Oil Rises for 2nd Session

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which measures shipping rates for vessels transporting dry bulk commodities, advanced for a fifth day on Wednesday, climbing 128 points to its highest level since November 26 at 1,559 points, supported by all segments. The capesize index, which typically tracks vessels transporting 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, jumped 285 points to 2,759 points; and the panamax index, which usually tracks vessels carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, was up for a fourth session, adding 94 points to a two-week high of 1,158 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose 8 points to 872 points.

Baltic Dry Index Rallies to 15-Week High

Steel rebar futures were at CNY 3,220 per tonne, remaining close to the two-month lows of CNY 3,200 touched on March 11th amid concerns of lower demand. Consumer and producer prices in China fell more than expected in February to underscore the poor demand for manufactured goods in the world's top consumer. In the meantime, US President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel, spurring retaliatory measures from the EU. The measures have a muted impact on the Chinese rebar market due to existing barriers Trump's first term. Still, the move added to a rising trend of protectionist policies that do impact Chinese mills, particularly due to the rising dependency on exports to meet their sales targets as slowing construction activity dampened domestic rebar buying. Tariffs were imposed or threatened by Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, and Brazil. Steel exports grew 7% in the first two months to 17 million tons, following a record-setting record-high 130 million tons in 2024

Steel Holds Near 2-Month High

Cocoa futures traded around $8,100 per tonne, holding close to their lowest in four months, pressured by improved weather prospects in the key producing region of West Africa and expectations of increased surplus forecast for this season. Farmers in key grower Ivory Coast said above-average rains mixed with long sunny spells last week across most of cocoa growing regions are expected to improve growing conditions and strengthen the development of the April-to-September mid-crop. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organization now projects a supply surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024/25 season, following three consecutive years of deficits, with increased rainfall across West Africa fostering new crop growth.

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