UK Gas increased to a 14-month high of 127.00 GBp/thm. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural Gas UK GBP gained 10.82%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 89.61%.

UK Gas Hits 14-month High

Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content held steady around $101 per ton in late January, facing renewed pressure due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Trump said that his administration is considering a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which could take effect on February 1. He also threatened a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, though he provided little detail on potential levies against Europe. Despite these concerns, investors remain optimistic that China will fulfill its promises of additional stimulus, with state media reporting that the People’s Bank of China may cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks later this month. On a positive note, recent data showed that China’s annual imports of iron ore reached a record high of 1.24 billion tons last year. Additionally, the country’s steel shipments hit their highest level since 2015, totaling 110.7 million tons.

Iron Ore Prices Muted Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Silver climbed toward $31 per ounce on Wednesday, approaching its highest levels in six weeks, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats fueled demand for safe-haven assets. On Tuesday, Trump indicated that he was considering a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting February 1, just one day after threatening Mexico and Canada with tariffs of approximately 25%. However, with no action taken yet, there are hopes that the administration may adopt a more cautious stance on tariffs. Silver also remains supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could weaken the dollar and boost demand for commodities. Additionally, ongoing supply concerns, particularly in London vaults, and strong industrial demand, especially from manufacturing, continue to strengthen the bullish outlook for silver.

Silver Approaches 6-Week High

Copper futures fell below $4.30 per pound on Wednesday, sliding for the third straight session as US President Donald Trump threatened China with a 10% tariff, heightening fears of a global trade war. Trump also mentioned considering a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, though he refrained from implementing any of these threats into policy. Market sentiment was further dampened by caution ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, as well as upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. However, there remains some optimism that China will follow through on promises of additional stimulus, with state media reporting that the People’s Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirement ratio for banks later this month.

Copper Prices Drop Amid Tariff Concerns

Malaysian palm oil futures dipped around 1% to below MYR 4,230 per tonne after solid gains in the prior session, dragged by weak export data. Cargo surveyors noted shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1–20 could shrink 18.2% to 23% from the same period in December. In top consumer India, demand at the start of 2025 may hit a near five-year low as cheaper rival oils dominate. Meantime, global trade concerns added to a bearish mood after reports suggested US President Trump might impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting February, 1. As China is a key consumer of palm oil, heightened US-China trade tensions could disrupt commodity markets, including palm oil. Capping further losses were bets of rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and the fasting month in March. On the production side, the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers saw a 10% drop in output for the first half of January. Stocks are also expected to stay below average at 1.7 million tonnes in Q1 2025.

Palm Oil Trades Sharply  Lower

Gold rose toward $2,750 per ounce on Wednesday, extending a more than 1% gain from the previous session to reach its highest level since early November of last year. The metal has been supported by a relatively softer US dollar and growing demand for the safe-haven asset, as concerns over trade wars lingered following President Trump's announcement of potential tariff policies. Trump pledged to impose tariffs on the European Union and reiterated his consideration of a 10% tariff on China, following his earlier statement about prospects of imposing hefty levies on Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, traders continued to assess inflation risks, as Trump’s policies were broadly seen as inflationary, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period to control price pressures. This could dampen gold’s appeal, as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Gold Hits Over 11-Week High

Brent crude oil futures traded around $79 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from recent sessions after US President Donald Trump reiterated his consideration of a 10% tariff on China, a top oil consumer. This amplified trade war concerns, following his statement a day earlier about potentially imposing hefty levies on Canada and Mexico. Markets also continued to assess the implications of Trump's pledges to boost oil production by declaring a national energy emergency to ease permitting, open up acreage, and reverse Biden-era clean energy policies. Meanwhile, recent US sanctions on Russia have disrupted physical oil and tanker markets, offering some carryover support to oil prices. Elsewhere, a winter storm swept across the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday, with North Dakota's oil production falling by 130 thousand to 160 thousand bpd, according to the state's pipeline authority.

Brent Remains Under Pressure

WTI crude oil futures traded below $76 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from recent sessions after US President Donald Trump reiterated his consideration of a 10% tariff on China, a top oil consumer. This amplified trade war concerns, following his statement a day earlier about potentially imposing hefty levies on Canada and Mexico. Markets also continued to assess the implications of Trump's pledges to boost oil production by declaring a national energy emergency to ease permitting, open up acreage, and reverse Biden-era clean energy policies. Meanwhile, recent US sanctions on Russia have disrupted physical oil and tanker markets, offering some carryover support to oil prices. Elsewhere, a winter storm swept across the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday, with North Dakota's oil production falling by 130 thousand to 160 thousand bpd, according to the state's pipeline authority.

Oil Remains Under Pressure

Wheat futures climbed to around $5.55 per bushel, their highest in over five weeks, driven by a large wheat purchase from Jordan’s state grain buyer in an international tender. Meanwhile, Russia's wheat exports slowed significantly, as expected. In the first weeks of January, Russia shipped 0.9 million tons of wheat, down from 1.4 million in the same period in 2024, according to Sovecon data. The agency forecasts Russian wheat exports in January to range from 1.8 to 2.2 million tons, well below the 3.6 million tons exported last year. In the meantime, Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2025/26 EU milling wheat production forecast to 127.2 million tonnes, up by 600,000 tonnes from its initial estimate and 13 million tonnes higher than last year's harvest, due to stronger-than-expected plantings in Germany.

Wheat Futures at Over 5-Week High

Rubber futures edged higher to nearly 195 cents per kg, approaching an over two-week high of 196 cents per kg hit in mid-January. The lack of immediate trade tariffs on top buyer China from U.S. President Donald Trump helped alleviate pressure on the country's growth prospects, enhancing the demand outlook. Moreover, China's automotive industry, a major consumer of rubber, is set for ongoing growth, fueled by strong domestic and export demand. Meanwhile, improving weather conditions in top producer Thailand eased supply concerns. Thailand's meteorological agency said the northeast monsoon prevailing over the Gulf and the southern region would weaken with less rains and isolated thunder-showers.

Rubber Futures Approach Over 2-Week Highs

Lumber prices fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, retreating from eight-week highs of $600 on January 16th, as the impending 25% tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, set to take effect on February 1st, weighed on the market. These tariffs, imposed by President Trump, will increase the cost of Canadian lumber, which is a key input for U.S. housing construction, potentially reducing demand as builders face higher material prices. The price hike could discourage housing projects, especially as the broader construction sector slows. Trump's executive orders aimed at stimulating U.S. housing production, including efforts to lower construction costs, may further dampen demand for imported lumber by promoting domestic sourcing. As Canada is the largest supplier of U.S. lumber, the tariff’s impact on supply and demand dynamics is expected to be significant, with builders likely seeking alternatives as lumber prices rise.

Lumber Drops on Impending Tariffs

Sugar futures fell to below 17.7 cents per pound in January, testing their lowest level since June 2021 as soaring supply from major producers coincided with uncertain global demand. The Indian government approved quotas for 1 million tonnes of sugar to be exported in the current marketing year after the country achieved a supply surplus for the first season in eight. The world’s second largest producer is expected to produce over 27 million tonnes of raw sugar in the season. In turn, favorable cane-growing conditions in top producer Brazil boosted the outlook in the country’s crop. Besides a good crop, softer ethanol prices during the year drove crushers to allocate cane for sugar crushing instead of ethanol blending, raising supply of the sweetener. Industry players expect a record-high output of 43.1 million tonnes in the current marketing year. Lastly, record-low levels for the BRL and the INR allow lower asking prices in dollar terms, adding to the bearish pressure.

Sugar Hovers Near 4-Year Low

Wheat increased to a 5-week high of 555.00 USd/Bu. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat gained 2.38%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 7.23%.

Wheat Hits 5-week High

U.S. heating oil futures slipped to around $2.54 per gallon, retreating from the nine-month high of $2.63 on January 17th, as falling crude oil feedstock costs and an ample supply weighed on prices. President Trump’s executive orders, including potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, fueled concerns over weaker global demand, while his push to boost U.S. oil production and the easing of geopolitical tensions further pressured prices. Additionally, the latest EIA report revealed distillate stockpiles surged by 3.07 million barrels, nearly triple the expected 1.1 million-barrel build, with heating oil inventories rising by 0.65 million barrels, signaling ample supply.

Heating Oil Declines Amid Lower Crude Costs

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, continued to ease for a sixth successive session on Tuesday, dropping about 3% to a fresh low since June 2023 at 928 points, pulled down by all vessels. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, slumped 3.2% to a near two-week low of 1,284 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, declined 19 points to a new low since February 2023 at 874 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax extended its losing run into a 28th day, falling to an over one-year low of 703 points.

Baltic Dry Index at Fresh 1-1/2-Year Low

Soybean futures surged toward $10.55 per bushel, their highest level since early October 2024, amid concerns over drought in Argentina and rains in Brazil. Dealers noted that forecasted rains over Argentine farmland largely failed to materialize over the weekend, prolonging drought conditions, though farmers were informed that some relief could arrive in late January or early February. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2024-25 season is at its lowest level for this time of year since the 2020-21 cycle, due to excessive rainfall in Mato Grosso, the country’s top-producing state. Additionally, soybean futures received a boost from the absence of immediate U.S. tariffs on China, the world’s largest soybean importer, which has increasingly turned to cheaper supplies from Brazil and Argentina.

Soybean Futures at Over 3-Month High

US natural gas futures rose 2% toward the $3.9 per MMBtu mark on Tuesday, trimming the 11% plunge from the two prior sessions, and not far from the two-year high of $4.3 touched last week amid the outlook of lower supply and a pickup in heating demand. US President Trump lifted the moratorium on new LNG export licences in his first day in office, confirming previous pledges during his campaign. The measure allows domestic natural gas producers to take advantage of higher prices overseas and force consumers to compete with higher prices in major LNG hubs in Europe and Asia. In the meantime, freezing temperatures in the Southern states raised demand for heating in households and frozen power grids. Meanwhile, federal data showed a significant withdrawal of 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10th, far exceeding the 150 bcf withdrawn in the corresponding period of the previous week.

US Natural Gas Rebounds

Natural gas prices in Europe rose to €48 per megawatt-hour as traders evaluated Trump's early actions in the White House and the seasonal increase in demand due to winter cold. Among the President's initial measures was lifting a moratorium on new US licenses for LNG exports, paving the way for additional export permits. This move is expected to drive higher demand for US LNG from Europe and Asia. Trump also reiterated his call for the EU to purchase more American oil and gas to avoid potential tariffs. Meanwhile, Russian natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine ceased at the start of the year after both governments failed to reach an agreement. The IEA noted that while the halt in Russian piped gas does not pose an immediate risk to the EU’s supply security, it may increase European LNG import needs, further tightening global market fundamentals by 2025. This year, European LNG imports are projected to rise by over 15%. Currently, EU gas storage levels stand at 60% capacity.

European Natural Gas Prices Rise

Copper futures tumbled to around $4.26 per pound on Tuesday, hitting a one-week low after US President Donald Trump threatened other major economies, including China, with tariffs as part of a wider negotiation strategy, raising the risk of a global trade war. That would hurt demand for metals like copper which is hinged on an economic rebound in China. Caution also dominated sentiment ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in China, as well as key interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve in the coming days. Meanwhile, there remains hope that China will follow through on its promises of additional stimulus, with state media reporting that the People’s Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirement ratio for banks later this month. On the supply side, Chile revised its copper production forecast, now expecting 5.54 million tons by 2034, down from a previous estimate of 6.34 million tons.

Copper Extends Fall on Trump Tariff Threats

Malaysian palm oil futures were modestly higher, hovering around MYR 4,230 per tonne, marking their third session of gains amid optimism about a demand recovery in key buyer China as the Lunar New Year approaches. Also, expectations for increased purchase activity grew ahead of the fasting month in March. On the production front, the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association projected output during the first 15 days of January had fallen by 10% from the same period in December. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council estimated inventories are likely to stay below average at around 1.7 million tonnes in Q1 2025, ahead of the peak production season. However, gains were capped by weaker export estimates as cargo surveyors noted shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1–20 could drop by 18.2% to 23%. In India, the world's largest palm oil consumer, demand is expected to hit a near five-year low at the start of 2025, as less expensive rival oils dominate the market.

Palm Oil Rises for 3rd Session

Gold rose above $2,720 per ounce on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors remain focused on the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's policies during his second term. Trump said he may impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting early next month, though he did not provide a timeline for China tariffs. These tariffs, if enacted, could trigger a trade war, heightening demand for safe-have assets like gold. Simultaneously, investors are weighing inflation risks, as Trump’s agenda of tax cuts and increased government spending could contribute to rising price pressures, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy. This could negatively impact the bullion as higher rates reduce the appeal of holding the non-yielding asset. On the geopolitical front, traders are closely monitoring the effects of a long-delayed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Gold Extends Gains

Brent crude oil futures rose above $80 per barrel on Tuesday, as traders digested a series of executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump following his inauguration. Among these was a plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, dampening investor expectations for a delay. However, Trump held off unveiling specific levies on China, the world's top oil importer, keeping markets on edge. Traders are also awaiting further details on sanctions targeting major oil exporters, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. On Monday, crude prices dropped more than 1%, after Trump announced plans to boost U.S. oil and gas production by declaring a national emergency. Lower geopolitical risk also eased prices following the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Brent Rises As Traders Assess Trump's 1st Day in Office

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $76.8 per barrel on Tuesday, as traders digested a series of executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump following his inauguration. Among these was a plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, dampening investor expectations for a delay. However, Trump held off unveiling specific levies on China, the world's top oil importer, keeping markets on edge. Traders are also awaiting further details on sanctions targeting major oil exporters, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. On Monday, crude prices dropped more than 1%, after Trump announced plans to boost U.S. oil and gas production by declaring a national emergency. Lower geopolitical risk also eased prices following the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Oil Rises As Traders Assess Trump's 1st Day in Office

Silver rose toward $30.34 per ounce on Monday, driven by supply concerns and a narrowing of price discrepancies between New York and London markets. The threat of tariffs, particularly following President Trump's inauguration, initially boosted premiums for silver futures as traders braced for potential disruptions. However, reports that Trump would delay new tariffs eased some pressure, reducing premiums. Despite this, silver's price remains elevated, supported by ongoing fears of supply issues, especially in London vaults. Additionally, strong industrial demand, particularly in manufacturing, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and boost demand for commodities, continue to prop up silver. Geopolitical factors, including reduced US-China tensions after a positive Trump-Xi call, also add to silver's appeal as an asset.

Silver Rises Amid Tariff Fears and Supply Concerns

Copper decreased to a 48-week low of 3.75 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper gained 6.23%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 13.88%.

Copper Hits 48-week Low

Gold prices held above $2,700 per ounce on Monday, bolstered by inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and fiscal uncertainty. President Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency, emphasizing expanded oil and gas production, could reduce energy costs and ease inflationary pressures, potentially diminishing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. However, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty, coupled with the abandonment of renewable energy commitments and the Paris Accord, supports safe-haven demand. A weaker dollar following Trump’s inauguration further underpins gold, while expectations of limited Fed rate hikes amid soft U.S. economic data add to its allure. Though geopolitical stability, including a Middle East ceasefire, has slightly tempered risk aversion, Trump’s broader economic agenda fuels volatility, sustaining gold’s prominence.

Gold Held Strong After Trump's Inauguration

Brent crude futures held near $80 per barrel on Monday as markets reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to expand domestic crude production, including plans to invoke emergency powers to accelerate energy output immediately upon taking office. Additionally, his decision to delay imposing tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico offered temporary relief, easing fears of supply disruptions, particularly from Canada, the largest supplier of crude to the U.S. Meanwhile, speculation surrounding potential adjustments to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil added uncertainty. Geopolitical risks also declined as easing tensions in the Middle East, marked by a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, contributed to downward pressure on prices.

Brent Drops as Trump Pledges Output Boost, Eases Tariff Fears

WTI crude futures held below $76.9 per barrel on Monday as markets reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to expand domestic crude production, including plans to invoke emergency powers to accelerate energy output immediately upon taking office. Additionally, his decision to delay imposing tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico offered temporary relief, easing fears of supply disruptions, particularly from Canada, the largest supplier of crude to the U.S. Meanwhile, speculation surrounding potential adjustments to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil added uncertainty. Geopolitical risks also declined as easing tensions in the Middle East, marked by a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, contributed to downward pressure on prices.

Oil Drops as Trump Pledges Output Boost, Eases Tariff Fears

Sugar prices traded around 18.2 cents per pound, hovering close to their lowest since mid-August 2024, amid improved supply prospects. The Indian government has approved the export of 1 million tonnes of sugar for the 2024-25 season, which ends in September. This follows a complete export ban imposed by India, the world’s second-largest producer, during the 2023-24 marketing year, despite an average annual export volume of 6.8 million tonnes between 2018 and 2023. At the same time, favorable cane crops in Brazil’s Centre-South region, boosted by recent rainfall, and the prospect of increased sugar exports from Thailand due to a halt in syrup exports to China, also contributed to downward pressure on prices.

Sugar Futures at 5-Month Low

Russian Urals oil prices were near $77 per barrel in January, holding near the highest level since September of 2024, tracking the rise in other crude oil benchmarks as markets continued to assess the impact that the newest sanctions on Russia may have on export volumes this year. Ship-tracking and port data showed a growing magnitude of tankers going idle in Russian ports following the latest round of sanction by the United States, which sanctioned major oil transporters Surgut and Gazpromneft. The measures prevented tankers from key Russian transporters from shipping crude oil and fuel, removing millions of barrels per day from usual trade. Consequently, fewer supply chains lifted asking prices from Russian producers to make up for lower sales volumes, forcing India and China to seek shipments from the North Sea.

Urals Oil Surges on Tight Supply

Arabica coffee futures nearly stabilized around $3.30 per pound, hovering around their highest in a month, amid ongoing supply concerns. Dealers said that the flow of coffee from top producer Brazil should slow this year, an off-year in the country's biennial crop cycle, while dry weather last year could reduce the size of the 2025/26 harvest. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) estimates that the country's coffee exports are unlikely to reach record levels in 2025, after reaching historic highs in 2024, amid expectations of lower production of arabica beans. Meanwhile, rising robusta prices are exerting additional pressure on arabica, as Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, faces supply disruptions from the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.

Arabica Coffee Futures Hover Around 1-Month High

Brent crude futures declined 1% to $80 per barrel on Monday as traders awaited the inauguration of President Trump, focusing on his speech and potential executive orders, particularly on energy policy. Trump has pledged to roll back several of former President Joe Biden’s renewable energy initiatives and lift restrictions on new LNG licenses. A report from the WSJ indicated Trump would refrain from imposing tariffs on China, Canada, or Mexico on his first day in office, providing temporary relief for markets. Additionally, speculation surrounds potential adjustments to US sanctions on Russian oil, as Trump has vowed to address the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially easing restrictions on Russia's energy sector in exchange for a ceasefire. Further pressure on crude prices came from easing tensions in the Middle East, as Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners on Sunday, marking the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of conflict.

Brent Crude Down to $80

WTI crude futures declined over 1.5% to $76.5 per barrel on Monday as traders awaited the inauguration of President Trump, focusing on his speech and potential executive orders, particularly on energy policy. Trump has pledged to roll back several of former President Joe Biden’s renewable energy initiatives and lift restrictions on new LNG licenses. A report from the WSJ indicated Trump would refrain from imposing tariffs on China, Canada, or Mexico on his first day in office, providing temporary relief for markets. Additionally, speculation surrounds potential adjustments to US sanctions on Russian oil, as Trump has vowed to address the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially easing restrictions on Russia's energy sector in exchange for a ceasefire. Further pressure on crude prices came from easing tensions in the Middle East, as Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners on Sunday, marking the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of conflict.

Oil Prices Fall

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, eased for a fifth consecutive session on Monday, dropping about 3% to its lowest since June 2023 at 957 points, amid lower rates across all vessels. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, slipped by 4.7% to a two-week low of 1,327 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, snapped its two-day winning streak, falling 4 points to its lowest since February 2023 at 893 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index decreased 20 points to 727 points.

Baltic Dry Index Extends Slide to 5th Day

Platinum futures were below $950 per ounce, retreating sharply from the two-month high of $982 touched on January 10th, extending last year's lag to other precious metals amid muted demand for the platinum's industrial uses. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) stated that the slowing demand for internal combustion engines, which take platinum as inputs through their catalytic converter, pressured prices throughout the year due to a slowing Chinese economy and increasing preference for electric vehicles. This was lastly evidenced as more than 60% of purchases under China’s subsidized new vehicle exchange program were for vehicle with a plug, and total purchases of new vehicles in the world’s largest car market were nearly split between EVs and those with combustion engines. This was enough to offset expectations that the platinum market would remain in a deficit in 2025 amid a decline in refined production in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and North America.

Platinum Holds Sharp Decline

Canola futures climbed above CAD 610 per tonne, recovering from a four-week low of CAD 607 on January 15th, as oilseed supply constraints compounded with robust demand. The USDA's January WASDE report sharply reduced U.S. soybean production by 95 million bushels and ending stocks by 90 million, shrinking global oilseed availability and lifting soybean prices. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean oil exports reached an eight-year high, reinforcing the global demand for vegetable oils. Additional pressure came from reduced palm oil availability, intensifying competition among alternatives. Broader grains market strength, fueled by falling corn stocks, further supported the oilseed complex. However, uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports has introduced volatility, with traders weighing the risk of trade disruptions.

Canola Rebounds on Tight Supplies and Robust Demand for Oilseeds

Cocoa futures surged past $11,170 per tonne, reaching their highest level in nearly two weeks, driven by tightening supplies with demand showing signs of resilience despite high prices in recent months. The latest data showed ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 1-1/2 years and fell to a 21-year low of 1,292,153 bags as of January 16th.d and strong demand despite high prices. At the same time, dealers said that supplies in top grower Ivory Coast appeared tight partly due to lower expected production, with ongoing concerns over ongoing rainfall shortages potentially impacting the April to September mid-crop. Meanwhile, the National Confectioners Association reported a 1.2% year-on-year decline in Q4 North American cocoa bean grindings to 102,761 MT, a smaller drop compared to European and Asian grindings, both of which hit their lowest levels since 2020.

Cocoa Futures at Near 2-Week High

Corn futures climbed above $4.80 per bushel in January, marking their highest level in over a year, as tightening U.S. and global supplies drove prices higher. The USDA's January WASDE report highlighted a sharp drop in U.S. production, down 456 million bushels, with ending stocks falling by 198 million. Lower-than-expected yields of 179.4 bushels/acre, despite favorable weather, underscored domestic supply constraints. Globally, drought and high temperatures led to downward revisions for Argentina’s 2024/25 corn crop, further tightening the market. U.S. production is now forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, 276 million less than December's estimate, while ending stocks are projected to contract for the seventh consecutive month, driven by strong ethanol demand. Global corn stocks were revised down to 293.3 million tons, making maize supplies the tightest since the 2020/21 season.

Corn Rises Amid Tightening U.S. and Global Supplies

UK natural gas futures rose toward 121 pence per therm, the highest since touching the one-year high of 126 pence on January 2nd and contrasting from recent price declines for gas in Dutch and North American hubs due to uncertain supply in the UK. Centrica noted that UK natural gas storages are at concerningly low levels after the turn of the year due to the earlier onset of winter, driving households to increase consumption for heating. The utility giant also noted that higher demand for gas fired power stations also contributed to the depletion of storage, aligning with earlier setbacks to other power generation methods. Consequently, storage at Rough, the UK’s largest storage site, are 20% lower than the corresponding period of the previous year.

UK Natural Gas Rises

Wheat futures have been trading between $5.30 and $5.50 per bushel in January, as traders continued to assess the USDA's outlook for supply and demand. The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook this month indicated slightly larger supplies and marginally higher ending stocks, mainly due to stronger imports Globally, the wheat outlook for 2024/25 also indicated larger supplies, reduced consumption, lower trade, and higher ending stocks. Russia’s wheat exports were forecast at 46.0 million tons, down from November and well below last year's record of 55.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council projected recently global production to reach a record 805 million tons in 2025/26, up 1% year-on-year, with 2024/25 production estimated at 796 million tons and consumption at 805 million tons.. Despite record global production, wheat prices are expected to stay under pressure in 2025, with declining output from Russia and Europe possibly tightening supplies further.

Wheat Futures Trade in Narrow Range

US natural gas futures sank toward $3.75/MMBtu, extending the sharp pullback from the two-year high of $4.3 touched on January 16th amid an eased demand outlook as markets awaited regulation changes under the Trump presidential administration. Forecasts of warmer weather prevailed through later January following the Arctic blast before the weekend, allowing traders to take profits and driving investors to focus on warmer days ahead, easing demand for gas-intensive heating. In the meantime, the Trump administration is expected to declare an energy emergency to increase energy output in the US. His team also pledged to lift the restart approvals of LNG export licences, but such members are unlikely to be approved in court anytime soon, limiting the rebound in prices. Meanwhile, federal data showed a significant withdrawal of 258 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for the week ending January 10th, far exceeding the 150 bcf withdrawn in the corresponding period of the previous week.

US Natural Gas Extends Plunge from 2-Year High

Uranium futures steadied below the $74 per pound, remaining close to the 14-month low of $70 per pound from late December amid the ongoing view of ample supply of mined uranium. Top producer Kazatomprom is due to raise Uranium output despite struggles to secure sulfuric acid and the momentary suspension of its joint-project Inkai. Other miners are also due to lift global supply, with UBS forecasting higher supply from Paladin Energy and Boss Energy. This allowed utilities to lock long-term contracts in favorable terms, limiting demand in the futures market. Earlier, Russia banned sales of enriched uranium to the US in response to Washington’s decision to ban imports of Russian nuclear fuel, but ample waivers for both parties limited supply threats. While enrichment prices to transform uranium into nuclear fuel hover near record highs due to the supply chain disruptions since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ample yellowcake supply maintained their prices at recent lows.

Uranium Steadies Near 14-Month Low

European natural gas prices eased to €46 per megawatt-hour, extending the pullback from the over one-year high of over €50 touched on January 2nd as markets relaxed earlier concerns of insufficient supply. Flows of Russian natural gas to Europe through Ukraine came to a halt at the turn of the year after the respective governments failed to come to a deal, cutting European supply from a key source and triggering shortage concerns. Still, calls for sanctions on LNG imports within the continent were well below the consensus, and hubs continued to receive LNG shipments from Russia to sustain consumption through the higher-demand season of the winter. The latest aggregates indicated that gas storage in the country was 65% full, below the 77% from the previous year but enough to match demand for the rest of the drawing season.

EU Natural Gas Holds Pullback

Methanol decreased to a 5-week low of 2593.00 CNY/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Methanol gained 0.88%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 9.59%.

Methanol Hits 5-week Low

Silver held steady above $30.30 per ounce on Monday after experiencing heightened volatility last week, as caution dominated market sentiment ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. Traders are focusing on his promises to raise tariffs, tighten immigration, lower taxes, and increase deregulation—measures expected to be inflationary. Still, softer-than-expected US economic data last week fueled speculation of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Lower US rates could boost demand for commodities by stimulating economic growth and weakening the dollar. Meanwhile, a positive phone call between US President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday raised hopes for a reduction in US-China tensions.

Silver Holds Steady as Trump Second Term Looms

Copper futures fell to around $4.31 per pound on Monday, retreating further from two-month highs after China’s central bank kept key lending rates unchanged for the third consecutive month during its January fixing, despite Beijing's commitment to boosting consumption. Caution also prevailed ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, as traders awaited greater clarity on his potential policies, particularly concerning tariffs. However, there remains hope that China will follow through on its promises of additional stimulus, with state media reporting that the People’s Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirement ratio for banks ahead of the Spring Festival later this month. On the supply side, Chile revised its copper production forecast, now expecting 5.54 million tons by 2034, down from a previous estimate of 6.34 million tons.

Copper Falls as China Keeps LPRs Steady

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed over 1% to surpass MYR 4,200 per tonne after hitting a low of MYR 4,106 in the prior session, buoyed by bargain hunting after prices notched their lowest since early October last week. Optimism over demand recovery in key buyer China also lifted sentiment, with the upcoming Lunar New Year expected to spur purchases. Moreover, bets grew that buying activity may increase ahead of the fasting month in March. Meantime, Malaysian palm oil inventories fell for the third month in December, while output shrank 8.3% from November. However, gains were capped by caution as export estimates for the first 20 days of January are due later this week. In India, the largest importer, palm oil imports are expected to decline to a near five-year low in January, as cheaper rival vegetable oils dominate the market. In Indonesia, the top producer, Jakarta paused subsidies for biodiesel and replanting programs temporarily due to a reorganization of its palm oil fund agency.

Palm Oil Jumps to Begin the Week

Gold traded above $2,700 per ounce on Monday, erasing early-trading losses, as investors geared up for President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration later today. His proposed trade tariffs are expected to fuel inflation and potentially trigger trade wars, which could boost gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Last week, a benign reading on U.S. core inflation, along with softer-than-expected producer price inflation and retail sales data, revived expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, making it more attractive. However, easing tensions in the Middle East dampened demand for safe-haven assets, after Israel released the first batch of 90 Palestinian prisoners on Sunday in exchange for three hostages freed from Gaza, which marked the start of a ceasefire after 15 months of war.

Gold Edges Up as Trump Inauguration Eyed

Gold traded below $2,700 per ounce on Monday, as easing tensions in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets. On Sunday, Israel released the first batch of 90 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the three hostages freed from Gaza, marking the start of a ceasefire after 15 months of war. Meanwhile, investors now await President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration later today. His proposed trade tariffs are expected to fuel inflation and potentially trigger trade wars, which could boost gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. On the economic data front, softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week revived expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, which enhances its allure.

Gold Drifts Lower on Easing Mid-East Tensions

Brent crude oil futures steadied around $80.7 per barrel on Monday, as traders braced for the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House. While the oil market has been digesting the impact of new sanctions on Russia's oil sector, focus is now turning to how the incoming Trump Administration will handle these measures. Traders are also seeking more clarity on his trade tariffs and potential sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Last week, crude prices rose 1.3%, boosted by concerns about supply disruption following the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russia, coupled with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts amid signs of cooling inflation. However, easing tension in the Middle East may limit further gains in prices. On Sunday, Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners, marking the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of conflict.

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