The CRB Commodity Index dropped to around 320, retreating from an over one-year peaks, as the higher-for-longer interest rates stance by central bankers compounded the concerns of demand downturn. Investors also continued to assess the China's economic health, as the country's property sector woes offset optimism around support measures. Copper, considered a barometer for the world's economy, fell below $3.7 per pound pressured by a strong dollar and weak industrial sentiment, while gold slid to $1905, its lowest in nearly a month. At the same time, agricultural commodities, which account for more than 40% of the index, extended their downward trend amid lower prices of cocoa, soybeans, and coffee. As for the energy, crude oil hovered close to $89.5, easing from the 10-month highs.

CRB Retreats from 1-Year Highs

Oil prices have retreated from their recent 10-month peak, with WTI crude futures experiencing a second consecutive decline to below the $90 per barrel mark due to resurging concerns about the possibility of an economic recession. The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at its September policy meeting, but signaled another rate hike this year and fewer rate cuts in 2024. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also indicated that they would hold rates steady at restrictive levels for some time. Despite this recent decline, oil has witnessed an impressive rally, with prices surging by nearly 30% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize its domestic market, while US oil production continued to decline.

Oil Prices Ease on Recession Fears

The price of permits on the European Union's carbon market edged down to €87 per tonne due to concerns about reduced demand linked to a weak manufacturing sector in the Eurozone. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI edged down to 43.4 in September, below market forecasts of 44, preliminary estimates showed. This decline in manufacturing activity is particularly evident in Germany, where production is decreasing at the fastest rate since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in France, where the rate of decline has also accelerated. The rest of the Eurozone is experiencing its sixth consecutive month of decreasing manufacturing output. Additionally, the European natural gas market is facing volatility due to supply disruptions as Europe prepares for the winter season. Earlier this year, the price of carbon permits had reached above €105 per tonne, reflecting the increasing costs that industries like factories, power plants, and others must incur for their pollution emissions.

EU Carbon Prices Fall to €87

Wheat futures in the US rose above the $5.9 per bushel mark, rebounding slightly from the near-three-year low of $5.75 touched on September 21st as hiccups to Russia’s harvest threatened soaring supply expectations from the world’s top exporter. Fuel shortages hampered economic activity in Russia’s southern breadbasket, driving Moscow to suspend exports of selected fuels to salvage sales of its bumper crop. The USDA expects the country to produce 85 million tonnes of wheat this marketing year, lifting exports to be revised higher to a record-high of 49 million tonnes, by far the largest in the world. Also lowering prices, the WASDE report also showed that global consumption forecasts were revised lower by 210,000 tonnes to 795.9 million amid lower demand in Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, and Canada. In the meantime, news of ships successfully arriving in Ukraine through a temporary corridor lifted hopes that the country may be able to sell grain in the foreign market.

Wheat Edges Higher from Near 3-Year Low

Nickel futures dipped below the $19,000 per tonne, a nearly two-year low, as prospects of elevated interest rates by major central banks and China's slowing economy dampened the demand outlook. The S&P has downgraded the China's GDP forecast for 2023 and 2024 amid continued signs of weakness in the country's property and construction sectors, exacerbated by the potential liquidation of the giant developer Evergrande. Simultaneously, the need for electric vehicles experienced a downturn, with battery prices falling by 10% in August and manufacturers of batteries for new EVs gradually curtailing their input buying activity since the onset of the third quarter. Additionally, a lithium deposit discovered in the United States further boosted the case for lithium-ion batteries, undermining nickel-based alternatives. Lastly, the metal's stocks continued to stand at the level of multi-year highs and the market faced largest demand-supply surplus in at least a decade.

Nickel Prices Lowest in 2 Years

Soybean futures edged up to $13.0 per bushel, recovering slightly from a seven-week low of $12.84 hit on September 21st, because the US soybean harvest is progressing slower than expected. The US soybean harvest was only 12% complete by Sunday, less than the anticipated 14% due to some weekend rains in parts of the Midwest, government data showed on Monday. Nevertheless, there isn't an immediate shortage of grain supplies as US farmers advanced their autumn harvests. The USDA in a weekly crop progress report rated 50% of the soybean crop in good to excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from a week ago and the lowest for this time of year since 2013. Traders are eagerly awaiting the USDA's quarterly stock data to be released on Friday for further insights into the soybean market.

Soybean Market Recovers Some Ground

UK natural gas futures are exhibiting fluctuations above 100 pence per therm as winter approaches, mirroring the trends in the European benchmark. Nonetheless, the market's upward momentum is being tempered by subdued demand in both the UK and Europe, in conjunction with heightened imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The natural gas market is currently grappling with a sense of uncertainty due to tight global gas supplies and a range of risks, including US outages, extreme weather, disruptions in Russian gas exports, and extended outages in Norway. In anticipation of the winter season, British energy firm Centrica has announced plans to augment the storage capacity at the UK's largest gas storage facility. This expansion will boost the storage capacity to a substantial 54 billion cubic feet (bcf), aimed at enhancing the overall resilience of the system as the colder months approach.

UK Natural Gas Futures Hold Above 100GBp/Thm

Natural gas prices in Europe were volatile heading into the winter season, with TTF futures trading at around €41 per megawatt-hour, reflecting a sense of unease in the market. This volatility is expected to persist due to tight global gas supplies. European gas storage levels are currently at 95% capacity, offering short-term relief as the winter gas season starts on October 1st. However, gas storage alone cannot fulfill all of Europe's winter gas needs. The winter season runs from October to March, and while storage can cover about one-third of the EU's heating season gas requirements, severe cold spells could deplete it. The market also faces risks like US outages, extreme weather, and disruptions in Russian gas exports. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in reduced gas flows from Russia, and recent extended outages in Norway, like the Skarv field shutdown from October 2nd to October 8th, have contributed to price spikes, highlighting the market's fragility.

European Natural Gas Prices Seen Volatile

Silver held around $23 per ounce, not far from the 1-month low touched on September 14th, pressured by the Fed's hawkish pause, the potential U.S. government shutdown, and renewed concerns about industrial demand amid slowing Chinese economy. Also, the surging bond yields and stronger dollar dented the metal's appeal. In its latest meeting, the Fed signaled one more hike for 2023 and a slower monetary easing in 2024, confirming the interest rates would have to stay elevated longer. Additionally, tensions mounted over ongoing federal budget talks, with the deadline set for October 1st. Meanwhile, in China property sector took another hit after the developer giant Evergrande missed a payment. Still, tight supply continued to underpin the commodity, while efforts to curb carbon emissions sped up the development of solar panel technologies with higher conduction needs.

Silver Prices Tilt Closer to Monthly Lows

Prices for iron ore cargoes with a 62% iron ore content fell toward $121 per tonne, retreating from the five-month-high of $122.2 per tonne from September 18th on mounting concerns about instability from Chinese property developers. Missed bond payments by Evergrande and Country Garden triggered fresh fears of financial contagion within the sector, hampering the outlook on construction materials. The muted construction outlook drove steel mills to limit production, with output dropping by 4.8% month-on-month in August, hampering iron ore buying activity. Additionally, mills favored lower-grade iron ore imports from China to reduce input prices and increase margins, pressuring competing benchmarks worldwide. The developments outweighed efforts from the Chinese government to stimulate housing demand amid growing macroeconomic headwinds for the country’s economy, as Beijing eased mortgage curbs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and allowed provinces to issue special financing bonds.

62% Iron Ore Slip from 5-Month High

Prices for iron ore cargoes with a 63.5% iron ore content for delivery in Tianjin fell below $120 per tonne from the five-month-high of $125.5 per tonne from September 15th on mounting concerns about instability from Chinese property developers. Missed bond payments by Evergrande and Country Garden triggered fresh fears of financial contagion within the sector, hampering the outlook on construction materials. The muted construction outlook drove steel mills to limit production, with output dropping by 4.8% month-on-month in August, hampering iron ore buying activity. Additionally, mills favored lower-grade iron ore imports from China to reduce input prices and increase margins, pressuring competing benchmarks worldwide.  The developments outweighed efforts from the Chinese government to stimulate housing demand amid growing macroeconomic headwinds for the country’s economy, as Beijing eased mortgage curbs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and allowed provinces to issue special financing bonds.

Iron Ore Retreats from 5-Month High

Steel rebar futures dropped to CNY 3,650 per tonne in September, retreating to a six-week low amid further risks of financial contagion for China’s steel-intensive property development sector. Concerns of a possible liquidation for Evergrande emerged after another missed bond payment in between efforts to restructure, while Country Garden also attempted to restructure debt in its grace period. The news added to fears that potential defaults and liquidation would halt activity in a series of uncompleted and yet-to-start projects, hampering steel buying from one of its primary sources. Also pressuring prices, reports showed that lower profits for Chinese mills drove them to increase buying from cheaper Indian iron ore, significantly reducing input prices. Still, JPMorgan noted that steel usage in China should remain present through financial concerns for property developers, as high levels of infrastructure building offset the poor confidence in residential sales.

Steel Sinks to 6-Week Low

Malaysian palm oil futures were trading above MYR 3,700 per ton for the second session in a row, moving away from their lowest level in three months of around MYR 3,670 hit last week, supported by gains in rival oils and strong export data. Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-25 rose 17.5% from the same period in August to 1.1 million tons, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported that exports of palm oil products grew by 15.2% to 1.09 million tons. Meantime, a worsening drying trend may emerge in October for top producer Indonesia, according to Refinitiv Commodities Research. In India, palm oil imports in August rose about 3.9% from the prior month to a 9-month high of 1.13 million. Limiting the rise was a caution ahead of manufacturing PMI data for September in China this week after August print from officials showed factory activity shrank for a fifth straight month.

Palm Oil Futures Trade Above MYR 3,700 for 2nd Day

Brent crude futures fell below $93 per barrel on Tuesday as concerns that major central banks would keep interest rates higher-for-longer gripped commodity markets. The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at its September policy meeting, but signaled another rate hike this year and fewer rate cuts in 2024. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also indicated that they would hold rates steady at restrictive levels for some time. Still, Brent has rallied more than 20% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize its domestic market, while US oil production continued to decline.

Brent Declines on Rate Worries

WTI crude futures weakened toward $89 per barrel on Tuesday as concerns that major central banks would keep interest rates higher-for-longer gripped commodity markets. The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at its September policy meeting, but signaled another rate hike this year and fewer rate cuts in 2024. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also indicated that they would hold rates steady at restrictive levels for some time. Still, oil has rallied nearly 30% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize its domestic market, while US oil production continued to decline.

Oil Declines on Rate Worries

Methanol decreased to a 4-week low of 2457 CNY/T

Methanol Hits 4-week Low

Brent crude stabilized above $93 per barrel on Tuesday as investors weighed tightening global supplies against concerns that major central banks would keep interest rates higher-for-longer. Brent has rallied more than 20% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize its domestic market, while US oil production continued to decline. Meanwhile, hawkish signals from central banks amid an ongoing fight with persistently high inflation gripped commodity markets. Sentiment also took a hit after Moody’s warned that a US government shutdown would negatively impact the country’s credit.

Brent Stabilizes Above $93/barrel

WTI crude stabilized around $90 per barrel on Tuesday as investors weighed tightening global supplies against concerns that major central banks would keep interest rates higher-for-longer. Oil has rallied nearly 30% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize its domestic market, while US oil production continued to decline. Meanwhile, hawkish signals from central banks amid an ongoing fight with persistently high inflation gripped commodity markets. Sentiment also took a hit after Moody’s warned that a US government shutdown would negatively impact the country’s credit.

Oil Stabilizes Around $90/barrel

Nuclear Energy Index increased to an all-time high of 1910 USD

Nuclear Energy Index Hits All-time High

Gasoline decreased to a 4-week low of 2.508 USD/Gal

Gasoline Hits 4-week Low

US natural gas futures traded around $2.6/MMBtu in the last week of September, driven by strong demand and slightly reduced production estimates, even as the market entered the shoulder period characterized by lower power demand. Gas production in the US eased to 102.11 bcfd in September, down from the August record of 102.3 bcfd. Additionally, the oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by eleven to 630 in the week ending September 22nd. However, there's an expectation of gradual production increases by year-end, providing some offset against potential cold spells during the upcoming winter.

US Natgas Prices Steady at  $2.6/MMBtu

Steel decreased to a 4-week low of 3660 CNY/T

Steel Hits 4-week Low

Nuclear Energy Index increased to an all-time high of 1890 USD

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, was up for the second straight session, rising about 1.3% to its highest since May 10th at 1,614 points, mainly boosted by the bigger size segment. The capesize index, which tracks vessels typically transporting 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, advanced 3.1% to an over four-month high of 2,148 points; and the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, remained unchanged from the prior session at 1,685 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was flat at 1,354 points.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index at Over 4-Month High

Cocoa decreased to a 4-week low of 3522 USD/T

Cocoa Hits 4-week Low

Brent crude futures steadied near $93 per barrel on Monday as investors weighed tightening global supplies against demand concerns. Brent has rallied more than 20% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market. US oil production also continued to decline according to industry and official reports. Meanwhile, the oil rally stalled last week as the US Federal Reserve retained a hawkish stance at its September policy meeting, raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand. Demand uncertainties in China, the world’s top crude importer, also weighed on sentiment, though recent data pointed to economic stabilization.

Brent Crude Futures Steady as Market Outlook Mulled

WTI crude futures steadied near $90 per barrel on Monday as investors weighed tightening global supplies against demand concerns. Oil has rallied nearly 30% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market. US oil production also continued to decline according to industry and official reports. Meanwhile, the oil rally stalled last week as the US Federal Reserve retained a hawkish stance at its September policy meeting, raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand. Demand uncertainties in China, the world’s top crude importer, also weighed on sentiment, though recent data pointed to economic stabilization.

Oil Prices Steady as Market Outlook Mulled

Heating oil futures in the US traded around $3.3 per gallon, not far from the 10-month high of $3.48 touched on September 14th amid persistent evidence of tight supply ahead of the northern winter season. According to new data from the EIA, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.867 million barrels in the week ending September 15th amidst elevated exports and lower refinery capacity, defying market expectations for a 0.2 million-barrel rise. Earlier in the month, planned maintenance in key North American refineries drove distillate fuel production to drop by 120 thousand barrels per day, and disruptions are expected to hold until late October. Supply concerns for distillate fuels were compounded by the temporary export ban from key producer Russia, pressuring capacity for fuel refineries in the US and Europe.

Heating Oil Futures Hover at $3.3

Gasoline futures in the United States traded below $2.6 per gallon, their lowest in three weeks and in line with the seasonal pattern observed during this time of year when there is typically reduced fueling up due to the back-to-school season and less favorable weather conditions. Despite the downward trend in gasoline, the latest report from the EIA showed gas demand increased from 8.307 to 8.410 million b/d in the week ending September 15th and total domestic gasoline stocks fell by 831 thousand bbl to 219.476 million bbl. Also, Russia temporarily banned diesel and gasoline exports to stabilize domestic fuel supplies, intensifying pressure on global fuel markets.

US Gasoline Prices Extend Seasonal Fall

UK natural gas futures surged beyond 110 pence a therm, approaching levels not seen in five months due to the extension of maintenance outages in Norway. Norwegian gas system operator Gassco extended the shutdown of the Skarv field from October 2nd to October 8th, resulting in slower-than-expected Norwegian supply and limiting storage injections. Nevertheless, weak demand in the UK and Europe, coupled with higher imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) limit the upside. Looking ahead, British energy firm Centrica has announced an increase in storage capacity at the UK's largest gas storage facility to 54 billion cubic feet (bcf) to enhance resilience for the upcoming winter.

UK Natural Gas Prices Rise Past 100GBp/Thm

European natural gas futures surged by 9% to €43.5 per megawatt-hour on Monday, nearing their highest level in five months due to supply concerns. The Norwegian gas system operator, Gassco, extended the maintenance shutdown of the Skarv field, initially scheduled until October 2nd, further to October 8th, resulting in a delay in natural gas production. Despite ample winter inventories in Europe, the market remains sensitive to various risks, including outages in the United States, extreme weather events, and potential disruptions in Russian gas exports. Traders are closely monitoring LNG shipments from the United States following a recent decline in gas flows to the country's largest liquefaction terminal and the impact of Russia's fuel export ban on energy markets.

European Natural Gas Futures Hit €43.5

Steel rebar futures dropped below CNY 3,700 per tonne, retreating near the lowest in one month amid further risks of financial contagion for China’s steel-intensive property development sector. Concerns of a possible liquidation for Evergrande emerged after the firm stated it must revisit its credit restructuring plan. In turn, Country Garden’s restructuring deal failed to calm selloffs on its assets amid another round of missed payments. The news added to fears that potential defaults and liquidation would halt activity in a series of uncompleted and yet-to-start projects, hampering steel buying from one of its main sources. Still, losses were limited by hopes of stronger demand elsewhere. JPMorgan noted that steel usage in China shall remain present through financial concerns for property developers, as high levels of infrastructure building offset the poor confidence in residential sales. Also supporting prices, crude steel output fell by 4.8% month-on-month in August.

Steel Falls to 1-Month Low

Malaysian palm oil futures were trading above MYR 3,700 per ton, trying to move away from their lowest level in three months of around MYR 3,670 notched last week, amid gains in rival oils and a softening ringgit. Meantime,  a worsening drying trend may emerge in October for top producer Indonesia, according to Refinitiv Commodities Research. On cargo surveyor readings, exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-20 rose 2.4% from Aug. 1-20, Intertek Testing Services said last week. Meantime, independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said exports during the same period rose 1.8%. In India, the country's palm oil imports in August rose about 3.9% from the previous month to a 9-month high of 1.13 million, as the country is approaching a festive season. Limiting the rise was inventory data that showed Malaysian palm oil jumped 22.5% mom at the end of August to a 7-month high of 2.12 million tons.

Palm Oil Futures Hover Above MYR 3,700

Brent crude futures steadied above $93 per barrel on Monday as investors weighed tightening global supplies against demand concerns. Brent has rallied more than 20% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market. US oil production also continued to decline according to industry and official reports. Meanwhile, the oil rally stalled last week as the US Federal Reserve retained a hawkish stance at its September policy meeting, raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand. Demand uncertainties in China, the world’s top crude importer, also weighed on sentiment, though recent data pointed to economic stabilization.

Brent Steadies as Market Outlook Mulled

WTI crude futures steadied around $90 per barrel on Monday as investors weighed tightening global supplies against demand concerns. Oil has rallied nearly 30% since the end of June as OPEC+ majors Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through the end of the year, stoking fears of larger market deficits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Russia recently issued a temporary ban on fuel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market. US oil production also continued to decline according to industry and official reports. Meanwhile, the oil rally stalled last week as the US Federal Reserve retained a hawkish stance at its September policy meeting, raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand. Demand uncertainties in China, the world’s top crude importer, also weighed on sentiment, though recent data pointed to economic stabilization.

Oil Steadies as Market Outlook Mulled

Aluminum futures were above $2,250 per tonne in September, the highest in nearly two months, as supply pressures magnified signs of higher demand. China, the world’s top producer and responsible for more than half of global output, halted the expansion of production capacity beyond the current limit of 45 million tons as Beijing attempts to prevent oversupply and higher energy consumption from old, inefficient infrastructure. Simultaneously, Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports, the chief commercial ore of aluminum, also risked supply pressures. In the meantime, market players signaled that increasing demand for solar panels and electric vehicles in China is likely to offset the decline in aluminum usage in lower construction, pointing to a rebound in purchasing activity.

Aluminum Rises to Near 2-Month High

WTI crude futures rose above $91 per barrel on Friday, hovering close to ten-month highs amid concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global oil supply further. The Russian government announced Thursday it will temporarily restrict exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize fuel prices in the domestic market. The ban comes after exports of diesel from the country have fallen by nearly a third in the first two weeks of September. Official data also showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.135 million barrels last week, and stocks at Cushing were at their lowest since July 2022. For the week, the US oil benchmark is up nearly 1%.

Oil Edges Higher on Supply Concerns

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, rose about 1.5% to its highest level since May 11 at 1,593 points on Friday, mainly supported by the bigger size segment. The capesize index, which tracks vessels typically transporting 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, advanced 3.8% to an over four-month high of 2,083 points; and the supramax index added 5 points to 1,355 points. Meanwhile, the panamax index, which tracks ships that usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, shed 11 points to 1,685 points. The benchmark index increased by 15.4% for the week, recording its third consecutive weekly gain.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index Up on Friday, Posts Weekly Gain

Gold hovered below $1,930 an ounce, as investors as investors fretted about a hawkish Fed, global growth prospects and weak data from Europe. Also, the strengthened dollar dented the metal's appeal. In its latest meeting, the US central bank left interest rates unchanged as widely anticipated, but signaled another rate increase before the end of the year and fewer rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, in Europe the tightening cycle has likely come to an end, with the Bank of England unexpectedly opting for a halt in interest rates. Additionally, the PMIs showed the continued contraction in Eurozone's business activity. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary stance, as the board aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases.

Gold Remains Below $1,930

Wheat futures in the US fell below $5.8 per bushel in September, the lowest in nearly three years, amid increasing supply from the world’s top producers. Favorable weather in Russia boosted yields late in its harvest at the end of August. Hence, the latest WASDE report expects the country to produce 85 million tonnes of wheat this marketing year, lifting exports to be revised higher to a record-high of 49 million tonnes, by far the largest in the world. The large supplies already stimulated shipments out of the country, with SovEcon reporting a 17% rise in exports so far in September. Adding to the bearish pressure, the WASDE report also showed that global consumption forecasts were revised lower by 210,000 tonnes to 795.9 million amid lower demand in Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, and Canada. In the meantime, news of ships successfully arriving in Ukraine through a temporary corridor ramped up hopes that the country may be able to sell some of its grains in the foreign market.

Wheat Falls to 3-Year Low

Arabica coffee US futures fell to $1.55 per pound following a significant selloff in risky assets, prompted by the Federal Reserve's suggestion that interest rates could remain high for an extended period. Additionally, the Brazilian real weakened, indicating increased export selling by Brazilian coffee producers, which exerted downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, additional pressure ensued after Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency raised its 2023 Brazil Arabica coffee crop estimate to 38.2 million bags from the previous forecast of 37.9 million bags. Nevertheless, current coffee supplies remain tight, with ICE-monitored Arabica coffee inventories reaching a 10-1/4 month low of 440,853. Meanwhile, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service projected in its biannual report that coffee production would increase by 2.5% from the previous year to 174.3 million bags in 2023/24, driven by a 6.9% surge in Arabica output to 96.3 million bags.

Arabic Coffee Falls Amid Fed Hawkish Stance

European natural gas futures have risen above €39 per megawatt-hour, marking a more than 9% increase for the week due to supply concerns. Strikes in Australian export plants, which have now been resolved, disrupted the market for over a month. Additionally, Norway is gradually increasing production after outages, but certain maintenance activities are expected to persist well into October. Despite healthy winter inventories in Europe, the market remains sensitive to various risks, including US outages, extreme weather, and potential disruptions in Russian gas exports. Traders are closely monitoring LNG shipments from the US following a recent drop in gas flows to the country's largest liquefaction terminal and the impact of Russia's fuel export ban on energy markets.

European Natural Gas Prices Up Over 9% This Week

Wind Energy Index decreased to a 46-week low of 263.33 USD

Wind Energy Index Hits 46-week Low

Malaysian palm oil futures were below MYR 3,700 per ton, approaching their lowest level in three months while pointing to the third straight weekly losses, amid persistent weakness in rival oils which offset support from higher exports. Shipments of palm oil products from Malaysia for September 1-20 rose 2.4% from a month earlier, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Another cargo surveyor, Amspec Agri, mentioned that exports grew by 1.8% during the same period. Meantime, inventory data showed that Malaysian palm oil jumped 22.5% mom at the end of August to a 7-month high of 2.12 million tons. Separately, Kuala Lumpur kept its October export tax for palm oil at 8% and slashed its reference price. In top producer Indonesia, the attorney general's office has launched a corruption investigation into the country's palm oil fund agency, which oversees the collection and distribution of export levies on the commodity.

Palm Oil Futures Hover at Near 3-Month Low

Brent crude futures rose toward $94 per barrel on Friday, hovering close to ten-month highs amid concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global oil supply further. The Russian government announced Thursday it will temporarily restrict exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize fuel prices in the domestic market. The ban comes after exports of diesel from the country have fallen by nearly a third in the first two weeks of September. Official data also showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.135 million barrels last week, and stocks at Cushing were at their lowest since July 2022. Still, the international oil benchmark is on track to end the week little changed after facing pressure from the prospect of further US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that could dampen economic growth and energy demand.

Brent Edges Higher on Supply Concerns

WTI crude futures rose above $90 per barrel on Friday, hovering close to ten-month highs amid concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global oil supply further. The Russian government announced Thursday it will temporarily restrict exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize fuel prices in the domestic market. The ban comes after exports of diesel from the country have fallen by nearly a third in the first two weeks of September. Official data also showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.135 million barrels last week, and stocks at Cushing were at their lowest since July 2022. Still, the US oil benchmark is on track to end the week little changed after facing pressure from the prospect of further US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that could dampen economic growth and energy demand.

Heating oil futures rose past $3.39 per gallon, holding near the 10-month high of $3.48 touched on September 14th amid persistent evidence of tight supply ahead of the northern winter season. Data from the EIA showed that heating oil stocks in the United States fell by 109 thousand barrels on the week ending September 15th. Additionally, elevated exports and lower refinery capacity drove stocks for distillate fuels to unexpectedly drop by 2.867 million barrels in the period, magnifying threats to supply. Earlier in the month, planned maintenance in key North American refineries drove distillate fuel production to drop by 120 thousand barrels per day, and disruptions are expected to hold until late October. Supply concerns for distillate fuels were compounded by the temporary export ban from key producer Russia, pressuring capacity for fuel refineries in the US and Europe.

Heating Oil Fututes Approaches 10-Month High

Platinum futures dropped towards the $920 mark, easing from the two-week high recorded on September 19th, pressured by renewed concerns about slowdown in demand after the hawkish tone from Fed. During the last meeting, the US' regulator raised a possibility of another rate hike in 2023 and noted rates would have to stay elevated longer, denting the metals appeal. On the other hand, China's stimulus measures, stricter emission standards, which require larger use of platinum in auto catalysts, and positive economic data kept the floor under the prices. According to the August report, the country's new electric vehicle sales have reached their highest since December 2022. As for the supply, the power issues in the world's largest miner, South Africa, have slightly eased on the month. For the year, the World Platinum Investment Council forecasted the platinum market to hit a deficit of over a million ounces, with demand jumping by 27 percent on an annual basis and supply remaining flat.

Platinum Futures Fall from Weekly Highs

US natural gas futures fell to below $2.7/MMBtu, after a federal report showing a storage build last week in line with estimates. According to EIA, US utilities added 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage last week, compared with market expectations of a 67 bcf billion increase. Preliminary data showed that gas production in September decreased to 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), hitting a 10-week low of 100.6 bcfd on Thursday. Also, gas flows to US LNG export facilities have been on the rise, after Freeport LNG's facility in Texas returned to near full service over the past few days. Daily feedgas, however, was on track to fall to a three-week low of 11.6 bcfd on Thursday due to the shutdown of Cove Point LNG in Maryland for annual maintenance and a reduction at Cheniere Energy's LNG Sabine Pass in Louisiana.

US Natgas Prices Fall after EIA Report

Brent crude futures reversed early losses to trade around the $94 per barrel mark on Thursday, after Russia announced a ban on fuel exports, raising further concerns about tight supplies. The Russian government announced it will temporary restrict exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize fuel prices on the domestic market. The ban comes after exports of diesel from the country have fallen by nearly a third in the first two weeks of September. Early in the session, oil prices were falling in response to a hawkish Fed and concerns that higher interest rates could potentially dampen demand. Meanwhile, official data showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.135 million barrels last week, and stocks at Cushing were at their lowest since July 2022

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