Natural gas decreased to a 4-week low of 3.31 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas lost 14.53%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 61.04%.

Natural gas Hits 4-week Low

Wheat futures have fluctuated between $5.30 and $5.50 per bushel in January, as traders balanced weak demand with concerns over supply, including Russia's challenges and the risk that severe cold may have damaged some U.S. winter wheat. In Australia, wheat production for the 2024-25 marketing year was estimated at 32 million tonnes, 21% above the previous 10-year average, despite insufficient rainfall in the southern regions, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council recently projected global wheat production to reach a record 805 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 1% increase from the previous year, with 2024/25 production estimated at 796 million tonnes and consumption forecast to match production at 805 million tonnes.

Wheat Futures Drift Between $5.30 and $5.50

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, recorded its 11th consecutive decline on Tuesday, falling 15 points to a fresh low since February 2023 at 746 points, amid lower seasonal demand and activity. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, decreased 27 points to a new low since March 2023 at 931 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, eased 11 points to a fresh low since May 2020 at 748 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index shed 10 points to its lowest since June 2020 at 619 points.

Baltic Dry Index Extends Losing Streak

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.50 per pound, just below a recent record high of $3.51 per pound, amid lingering global coffee supply concerns and lower production estimates from top producer Brazil. Dealers noted that farmers in Brazil remain hesitant to sell, driven by uncertainty about the upcoming harvest and expectations of even higher prices. Conab's first estimate for this year's crop projects Brazil's coffee output at 51.8 million 60-kg bags in 2025, a 4.4% decrease from the previous year, due to adverse weather conditions affecting yields. Arabica coffee output is set to fall 12.4% to 34.7 million bags in 2025. Brazil experienced its most severe drought in history in 2024, and although rains arrived later in the year, the damage had already been done, leading to lower output projections for the next crop. Last month, Volcafe cut their 2025/26 forecast for Arabica to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from the September estimate.

Arabica Coffee Futures Hover Around Record Peak

Zinc futures fell to below $2,800 per tonne in January, tracking the broad decline for base metals as the pessimistic demand backdrop momentarily outweighed the trend of lower supply. The latest data from China showed that the world’s largest manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined in January despite earlier optimism that improved credit demand would drive growth for goods. Base metals were also pressured by lingering concerns that US President Trump may impose tariffs on China, the world’s top zinc producer. Still, supply concerns limited the pullback.  New aggregates showed that global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024. This was magnified by a 7% decline in refined zinc from China, as lower processing rates drove the country’s largest operators to ease output. Also, output from the world’s largest mine, the Red Dog Mine in Alaska, is due to slow in 2025.

Zinc Pulls Back on Base Metal Pressure

Brent crude oil futures rose over 1% to near $78 per barrel on Tuesday, driven by supply risks in Libya despite concerns over potential US trade tariffs. Protesters demanded the closure of two key Libyan ports, Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, threatening significant crude export disruptions. These stoppages could affect hundreds of thousands of barrels starting Tuesday. Meanwhile, President Trump expressed support for broad tariffs exceeding 2.5% on foreign-made goods, including steel, aluminum, and copper. This followed a 2% drop in crude prices on Monday due to weak Chinese manufacturing data and a global risk-off sentiment sparked by falling tech stocks.

Brent Crude Oil Approaches $78

WTI crude oil futures rose over 1% to $74 per barrel on Tuesday, driven by supply risks in Libya despite concerns over potential US trade tariffs. Protesters demanded the closure of two key Libyan ports, Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, threatening significant crude export disruptions. These stoppages could affect hundreds of thousands of barrels starting Tuesday. Meanwhile, President Trump expressed support for broad tariffs exceeding 2.5% on foreign-made goods, including steel, aluminum, and copper. This followed a 2% drop in crude prices on Monday due to weak Chinese manufacturing data and a global risk-off sentiment sparked by falling tech stocks.

Oil Rebounds on Tuesday

Palladium futures were at $950 per ounce, dropping sharply from the over one-month high of $1,000 touched on January 23rd, and extending its underperformance to other precious metals amid the bearish outlook for industrial uses of the platinum metal group. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) noted that the slowing demand for internal combustion engines, which take palladium as input for their catalytic converters and account for 90% of palladium consumption, pressured prices throughout the year due to a slowing Chinese economy and increasing preference for electric vehicles. Lastly, market players expect output to rise next year amid ample secondary supply from Russia and strong mining output from South Africa, driving palladium price benchmarks to underperform their platinum counterparts.

Palladium Pulls Back from 1-Month High

Malaysian palm oil futures rose toward MYR 4,300 per tonne, rebounding from the four-month low of MYR 4,190 touched on January 23rd amid news of lower output as markets continued to assess the outlook for demand. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association reported a 14% drop in domestic output during the first three weeks of January compared to the same period of the previous month. Additionally, the Malaysia Palm Oil Council projected demand could recover after March, on a tightening supply of sunflower oil due to heavy frontloading of Black Sea exports. In the meantime, tighter supply of energy in Indonesia drove the country to take extraordinary measures and safeguard LNG supply at the start of the year, lifting prices for alternative power sources, including palm oil as the nation’s main biofuel feedstock. On the other hand, lower prices for soybean oil in India pressured asking prices for other edible oils in the key consumer.

Palm Oil Rebounds

Uranium futures fell below $69 per pound for the first time in 16 months in January as markets recalibrated demand expectations against a backdrop of ample supply. Restrictions on imports of enriched nuclear fuel from Russia, which is responsible for around half of global enrichment capacity according to some estimates, shrunk the pool of yellowcake consumers in the market for mined uranium. The relatively ample availability of yellowcake is expected to remain as import wavers for nuclear fuel in the US are due to expire by 2027. In the meantime, markets reconsidered their speculative positions on nuclear power demand for US datacenters following the emergence of more efficient large language models. China’s open-source DeepSeek AI claimed to consume 95% less power than established US counterparts, erasing the race to develop alternative power sources. Such deals included nuclear power plants coming online to service data centers for Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon Web Services.

Uranium Sinks to 16-Month Low

US natural gas futures dropped below $3.65/MMBtu, near a three-week low, due to warmer-than-expected weather forecasts for early February. Weekend updates predicted milder conditions across much of the US from February 1-5, reducing anticipated heating demand. While colder weather in the Midwest and Northeast will bring moderate demand this week, most regions are expected to stay warmer than usual over the next two weeks. Analysts still expect a 317 bcf gas withdrawal for the week ending January 24, which could eliminate the gas inventory surplus for the first time since early 2022. Meanwhile, LNG exports are increasing, helped by the restart of Freeport LNG’s Texas facility.

US Natgas Prices Near 3-Week Low

Wheat decreased to a 21-week low of 525.00 USd/Bu. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat lost 2.43%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.87%.

Wheat Hits 21-week Low

HRC Steel increased to a 4-week high of 738.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Hot-Rolled Coil Steel lost 5.37%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 28.39%.

HRC Steel Hits 4-week High

Zinc decreased below 2800, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD).

Zinc traded below 2800 USD/T

Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content held steady above $101 per ton in late January, remaining sideways for over a week amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans that could disrupt global commodity trade. Trump recently announced intentions to impose tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper in a bid to boost domestic production. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the February 1st deadline for the first round of tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada, as previously outlined by the President. Meanwhile, trading volumes are expected to remain subdued as Chinese markets are closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

Iron Ore Holds Steady Amid Tariff Worries

Silver prices dropped to around $30 per ounce on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as the dollar rebounded amid escalating tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. Trump revealed plans to impose tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper in an effort to boost domestic production. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the February 1 deadline for the first round of tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada, as previously announced by the President. Meanwhile, investors are preparing for the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. In addition, overcapacity in China’s solar panel industry led photovoltaic companies to join a government-led self-discipline program, which is expected to limit silver demand from one of its top industries.

Silver Falls as Dollar Rebounds

Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,200 per tonne after a muted session the prior day, as traders showed reluctance to take new positions ahead of the Spring Festival break. Meantime, the Malaysia Palm Oil Council (MPOC) projected lower shipments in the first two months of the year due to seasonal factors, adding pressure to prices. In top buyer India, palm oil demand weakened recently as buyers favored soybean oil amid surplus supplies from South America. Capping further falls, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association noted a 14% fall in production during the first 20 days of January from the same period in December. Separately, the MPOC said prices to hover around MYR 4,250 to MYR 4,550 in Q1 2025, with demand expected to pick up after March due to a tightening supply of sunflower oil caused by heavy exports from the Black Sea region. Separately, Reuters projected Malaysian palm oil futures could average higher in 2025, bolstered by Indonesia's push for a higher biodiesel mandate.

Palm Oil Drops Ahead of Lunar Holidays

Copper futures rose above $4.22 per pound on Tuesday, recovering some of the losses from the previous session, despite fresh tariff warnings from US President Donald Trump that could disrupt global commodity trade. Trump unveiled plans to impose tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper in a bid to boost domestic production. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the February 1 deadline for the first round of tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada, as previously announced by the President. Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision this week, where it’s widely expected to hold interest rates steady. Trading volumes are expected to be lighter as Chinese markets remain closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

Copper Rises Despite Trump Tariff Concerns

Gold held its recent decline at around $2,730 per ounce on Tuesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which begins later today. With the central bank expected to keep interest rates steady, focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and how the central bank will respond to President Donald Trump's calls for interest rate reductions. Gold's appeal as an inflation hedge could be reduced if Trump's policies, which are seen as inflationary, lead the Fed to keep rates elevated. Additional downward pressure came from a rising U.S. dollar as markets reacted to Trump’s latest tariff threats. The precious metal dropped 1.1% in the prior session amid a broader market sell-off after Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sparked a massive rout in tech stocks.

Gold Holds Decline Ahead of Fed Policy Meeting

Brent crude oil futures traded around $77.1 per barrel on Tuesday after a sharp decline in the previous session, as traders remain focused on President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging set of tariffs. Trump said he'd impose tariffs on foreign-produced goods such as steel, aluminum, and copper in the near future, raising concerns over the potential ripple effects on global demand for commodities. Additionally, his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is reportedly backing gradual universal tariffs on U.S. imports starting at 2.5%. On Monday, crude prices slipped 1.8% amid a broad risk-off trade led by a slump in technology stocks, as well as weak manufacturing data from top oil importer China. While the migrant dispute between the U.S. and Colombia has been settled for now, Trump's tariff threats against China, Canada and Mexico, along with his calls for OPEC to lower prices and boost U.S. production, continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Brent Holds Losses, Trump’s Tariff Threats in Focus

WTI crude oil futures hovered around $73.2 per barrel on Tuesday after a sharp decline in the previous session, as traders remain focused on President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging set of tariffs. Trump said he'd impose tariffs on foreign-produced goods such as steel, aluminum, and copper in the near future, raising concerns over the potential ripple effects on global demand for commodities. Additionally, his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is reportedly backing gradual universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%. On Monday, crude prices slipped 2% amid a broad risk-off trade led by a slump in technology stocks, as well as weak manufacturing data from top oil importer China. While the migrant dispute between the U.S. and Colombia has been settled for now, Trump's tariff threats against China, Canada and Mexico, along with his calls for OPEC to lower prices and boost U.S. production, continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Oil Holds Losses, Trump’s Tariff Threats in Focus

Brent crude oil futures fell below $77 per barrel on Monday, marking a two-week low, as sharp selloffs in both tech and energy equities followed Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI overtook ChatGPT in popularity on Apple’s App Store. Earlier in the session, weak economic data from China, showing a contraction in factory activity, fueled concerns about declining demand from the world’s largest oil importer. These worries were further heightened by the prospect of proposed U.S. tariffs, which could exacerbate strains on economic growth and energy demand. Meanwhile, a brief dispute between the U.S. and Colombia over migrant policies, though resolved without sanctions, kept markets on edge. Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia is signaling intentions to raise oil prices for Asia, reflecting tighter global supplies due to OPEC+ production cuts and recent U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports.

Brent Crude Falls to 2-Week Low

WTI crude oil futures fell over 2% to near $73 per barrel on Monday, a monthly low driven by trade policy uncertainty and U.S. tariff threats. A brief dispute with Colombia over migrant policies added to the unease, although sanctions were ultimately avoided. The unpredictability of President Trump’s trade strategies continues to weigh on energy markets. Meanwhile, rising competition in the AI sector, underscored by China’s DeepSeek AI surpassing ChatGPT in popularity on Apple’s App Store, has intensified investor concerns, driving selloffs in both energy and tech stocks. Despite these pressures, Saudi Arabia is signaling plans to raise oil prices for Asia, reflecting tighter global supplies due to OPEC+ production cuts and recent U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. However, weak Chinese factory data for January, pointing to slowing demand in the world’s largest oil importer, and Trump’s calls for OPEC to lower prices to undercut Russian revenues, have further pressured oil.

Crude Oil Drops to Monthly Low

Gold reversed course to trade below $2,735 per ounce on Monday from the over-two-month high of $2,770 last session, as investors favoured fixed income and defensive equities instead of bullion following a recalibration of future returns for the heavyweight US tech output. Still, expectations of lower rates by the Fed this year limited the pullback. The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged this week, but investors are hopeful that Chairman Powell will refrain from delivering an overly hawkish guidance after the latest CPI data indicated some softening in underlying inflation. Pro-inflationary risks from US trade policy were also tempered as President Trump relaxed his rhetoric on tariffs against China and held off on taxing Colombian exports after the White House agreed on an expatriation deal with Bogota. Markets expect the Fed to deliver two rate cuts this year, with a slight consensus for a first move in May, favoring the outlook of non-interest bearing assets.

Gold Pulls Back from 2-Month High

Rice futures traded around $14.5 per hundredweight, hitting their lowest in two weeks, amid expectations of higher supplies. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January WASDE report estimated an increase in U.S. supplies, higher domestic usage, steady exports, and lower ending stocks. U.S. rice production was estimated at 222.1 million cwt, up 2.3 million from the previous estimate, with the largest increases seen in Texas and Missouri. Meanwhile, India’s rice stocks reached a record 60.9 million tonnes at the start of January, eight times the government’s target of 7.6 million tonnes, potentially enabling the country to boost exports. Exports gained momentum following India’s lifting of rice export ban in the second half of 2024. Global rice prices soared to their highest level in over 15 years following India's decision last year to ban the export of white rice and impose a 20% duty on parboiled rice exports.

Rice Futures at 2-Week Low

Corn futures fell toward $4.80 per bushel, easing from their highest level in over a year of $490 seen January 21st, primarily due to a mix of profit-taking and technical selling. Although solid export figures, 65.8 million bushels in combined sales and a strong shipment of 59.7 million bushels, offered some support, concerns over weather patterns, including forecasts for wetter conditions in the U.S. and potential crop stress in Argentina, weighed on market sentiment. Moreover, Argentina’s decision to cut its export taxes could intensify global competition, as the country’s lower costs might spur additional grain sales, potentially reducing U.S. export share. While the latest U.S. export sales report showed a 62% rebound in demand from the prior week, broader commodity weakness and profit-taking pressures continued to subdue corn prices.

Corn Eases From Over 1-Year High

Nickel futures were below $15,700, remaining relatively close to the four-year low of $15,000 touched on January 2nd as threats of output curbs were not enough to impact bets of an oversupplied market in upcoming years. Reports indicated that top producer Indonesia is considering policy to reduce nickel mining quotas to 150 million tons this year from 270 million tons in 2024, enough to reduce global supply by 35%. Still, the muted magnitude of the rebound indicate that markets expect the nickel market to remain in oversupply. This is due the surge of Chinese smelting projects in Indonesia after the latter prohibited the export of nickel ores in 2020. Indonesia was the host of 44 nickel smelting operations as of September, compared with four 10 years prior. Adding to the bearish pressure, new technology used by Chinese battery producers started to use technologies that refrain from using nickel, further denting the outlook for the metal.

Nickel Hovers Near 4-Year Low

Tin futures were above $30,100 per tonne, trading relatively close to the over-two-month high of $30,400 touched on January 20th, challenging the recent pressure in other major base metals as supply concerns weighed against the uncertain demand for the metal group. Lower-than-expected activity in major tin mines in Myanmar’s Wa State kept ore availability for Chinese smelters at low levels in recent periods. This challenged earlier expectations that tin output would recover in the region during the latter part of 2024, despite political instability in Myanmar. Output was also lower in Indonesia due to restrictions on mining quotas. Still, the outlook for manufacturing out of top consumer China was mixed. The latest credit aggregates showed that the economy increased investment following the series of monetary stimulus measures from the PBoC. Still, the latest manufacturing PMI unexpectedly pointed to a contraction in activity.

Tin Rebounds Toward 2-Month High

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, extended its losing streak into a tenth consecutive session on Monday, falling 17 points to a fresh low since February 2023 at 761 points, amid lower seasonal demand and activity. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, dropped 25 points to a new low since March 2023 at 958 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, decreased 315 points to a new low since May 2020 at 759 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased 10 points to a new low since February 2023 at 629 points.

Baltic Dry Index Continues to Slide

Sugar futures climbed further to around 19.5 cents per pound, their highest level since early January, supported by the continued strength of the Brazilian real and easing concerns over supply abundance. Dealers noted that Indian exporters are struggling to secure contracts after New Delhi allowed 1 million tons of sugar shipments to help mills manage surpluses and stabilize local prices. Facing high premiums from India’s expensive export deals and low global prices, traders are holding off on contracts to potentially benefit from global price increases until September 2025. Meanwhile, a Rabobank report showed Brazil’s sugarcane milling totaled 613.6 million tons by December 2024, with 1.7 million tons processed in the latter half of the month. This positions the 2024/2025 harvest as the third largest in the Center-South region, with the potential to secure second place depending on results through March 2025.

Sugar Futures Rally Continues

Cocoa futures traded below $11,500 per tonne, down from a recent one-month high of $11,663, pressured by long liquidation pressures, even as strong fundamental support remained in place. The intense Harmattan season in the key producing region of West Africa is hitting cocoa farms hard, exacerbating production challenges during a period of global supply constraints and high prices. Farmers are seeing soil dry out and pods wither on trees, reducing expectations for the upcoming mid-crop harvest and increasing the risk of a fourth consecutive global supply deficit, keeping cocoa prices elevated. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) said a survey of global cocoa stockpiles at the end of the 2023/24 season was at 1.041 MMT, down 36% y/y and lower than a previous estimate of 1.3 MMT. Simultaneously, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 1-1/2 years and fell to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags as of January 24th.

Cocoa Futures Ease

U.S. heating oil futures fell to around $2.45 per gallon, extending their decline from a nine-month high of $2.63 on January 17th, as warmer-than-expected weather compounded with declining crude oil feedstocks prices. Milder winter conditions in key regions have significantly reduced heating needs, while a major winter storm forecasted to bring snow to parts of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast is unlikely to sustain prolonged cold due to limited Arctic air. This muted demand is further reinforced by strong renewable energy generation in Europe, which has reduced reliance on traditional fuels like heating oil for power generation. Additionally, crude oil prices also remain under pressure, driven by rising U.S. inventories and President Trump's calls for OPEC to cut prices.

Heating Oil Falls on Warm Weather

UK natural gas futures dropped toward 120 pence per therm as heavy rain and strong winds from Storm Herminia reduced heating demand. This follows Storm Éowyn, one of the strongest storms in a decade, which caused widespread damage with 114mph gusts, disrupting power supplies. Herminia has triggered yellow warnings for wind and rain across Wales and southern England, with gusts up to 70mph expected along coasts and 50mph inland. Flooding risks are high, particularly in Wales and southern England, prompting warnings for residents in 40 areas to prepare for potential utility shutdowns. The storms have temporarily eased gas demand, contributing to the price decline.

UK Natural Gas Futures Fall amid Storm Herminia

Silver prices were around $30.5 per ounce, trading in narrow range since hitting a one-month high of $30.8 on January 22nd as support from bets of looser monetary policy by the US Fed weighed against pessimistic demand for silver industrially. The Fed is set to hold rates unchanged this week, but investors are hopeful that Chairman Powell will refrain from delivering an overly hawkish guidance after the latest CPI data indicated some softening in underlying inflation. Pro-inflationary risks stemming from higher import costs were also tempered as President Trump relaxed his rhetoric on tariffs against China. Still, Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted at the start of the year despite higher credit aggregates at the turn of 2025. Also, overcapacity in China’s solar panel industry drove photovoltaic companies to sign up for a government self-discipline program that aims to regulate supply, limiting the outlook of silver demand from its top industry.

Silver Holds Near 1-Month High

Gold rose past $2,760 per ounce on Monday, not far from the over-two-month high of $2,770 from the last session and remaining relatively close to record-high levels as markets remained confident that the Fed is due to lower its interest rate this year. The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged this week following to pause from the 100bps in cuts since the start of the cycle in September, but investors are hopeful that Chairman Powell will refrain from delivering an overly hawkish guidance after the latest CPI data indicated some softening in underlying inflation. Pro-inflationary risks from US trade policy were also tempered as President Trump relaxed his rhetoric on tariffs against China, and his administration agreed on an expatriation deal with Colombia to end tariff threats against the country. Markets expect the Fed to deliver two rate cuts this year, with a slight consensus for a first move in May, favoring the outlook of non-interest bearing assets in bullion.

Gold Advances Toward 2-Month High

European natural gas futures dropped below €49 per megawatt-hour as warmer-than-usual temperatures reduced heating demand, though a colder shift is expected later this week. Strong renewable energy output further lowered gas demand in the power sector. Meanwhile, supply disruptions in Norway, including an outage at the Troll gas field, provided some price support. Meanwhile, the European Commission plans to continue talks with Ukraine, Hungary, and Slovakia to secure gas supplies via Ukraine’s pipeline system, following the halt of Russian gas transit on January 1. Slovakia and Hungary have urged EU intervention to resume flows.

TTF Prices Fall on Warmer Temperatures

Steel rebar futures were over CNY 3,300 per tonne before Chinese commodity markets closed for the Lunar New Year, as the impact of poor economic data on the demand outlook was offset by optimism of open trade. The latest official PMI data pointed to a sharp contraction in construction activity in the first month of the year, with the official construction PMI slumping to a record low of 49.3 from 53.2 in the previous month, especially impacting the outlook for rebar. Besides its major use in construction, demand for ferrous metals was also supported by the unexpected deterioration in manufacturing activity. Still, the new US Presidential Administration relaxed its rhetoric of tariffs on China, limiting concerns of global protectionist policies. Such developments lift global demand for Chinese steel, among the main clients for mills as China exported 9.7 million tons of steel in December, a 26% surge from the previous year to cap off a record-setting year for steel exports.

Steel Holds Above CNY 3,300 Before Lunar New Year

Brent crude oil futures fluctuated around $78.5 per barrel on Monday as markets reacted to shifting trade policies from the Trump administration. The U.S. initially threatened tariffs on Colombia over a migrant dispute but paused the measures after Bogotá agreed to President Trump’s conditions. This move follows a series of globally impactful trade actions targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, alongside calls for OPEC to lower oil prices. Trump has argued that reduced oil prices could weaken Russia’s revenue and curb its actions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, signs of slowing economic activity in China, the world’s top oil importer, raised concerns about demand. Factory activity contracted in January after three months of growth, highlighting ongoing risks to global oil consumption.

Oil Swings Amid US Trade Policy Shifts

WTI crude oil futures fluctuated around $74.8 per barrel on Monday as markets reacted to shifting trade policies from the Trump administration. The U.S. initially threatened tariffs on Colombia over a migrant dispute but paused the measures after Bogotá agreed to President Trump’s conditions. This move follows a series of globally impactful trade actions targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, alongside calls for OPEC to lower oil prices. Trump has argued that reduced oil prices could weaken Russia’s revenue and curb its actions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, signs of slowing economic activity in China, the world’s top oil importer, raised concerns about demand. Factory activity contracted in January after three months of growth, highlighting ongoing risks to global oil consumption.

Coffee increased to an all-time high of 351.45 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 9.19%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 85.65%.

Coffee Hits All-time High

US natural gas futures dropped over 6% to $3.76/MMBtu on Monday as traders anticipated a major winter storm expected to impact parts of the US this week. The storm could bring heavy snow to the Southwest and Plains, while severe weather may hit the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Limited Arctic air could trigger snow in Arizona, New Mexico, and the Plains, with torrential rain forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast due to moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. This storm may signal a broader weather pattern shift as February begins. Meanwhile, analysts estimate a 317 bcf gas withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 24, potentially erasing the gas inventory surplus over the five-year average for the first time since January 2022. Also, the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants is expected to continue increasing, due in part to Freeport LNG's Texas facility, which resumed operations after an outage.

US Natgas Prices Start Week Lower

Silver prices fell 1% to around $30.20 per ounce on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session as the dollar rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia, reigniting fears of a broader trade conflict. Trump’s warning came after Colombia blocked two US military aircraft carrying deported migrants as part of the crackdown on illegal immigration. Market sentiment was also weighed down by data showing that manufacturing activity in China, the world’s top silver consumer, unexpectedly contracted, while growth in the services sector slowed sharply. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady this week, though it faces increasing pressure from Trump to cut borrowing costs immediately.

Silver Prices Dip on Dollar Strength

Copper futures dropped to around $4.25 per pound on Monday, extending losses from the previous session as market sentiment was dampened by US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia. This came after Colombia blocked two US military aircraft carrying deported migrants as part of the ongoing crackdown on illegal immigration. The decline was also fueled by disappointing economic data, with manufacturing activity in China, a major copper consumer, unexpectedly contracting, and growth in the services sector slowing sharply. Additionally, caution prevailed ahead of China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan, a major copper producer, reported last week that it missed its fourth-quarter production targets and warned of a significant drop in first-quarter output.

Copper Slips on Trump Tariff Worries

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,200 per tonne, increasing for the second session after early data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association showed a 13% drop in production during the first twenty days of January. Supporting sentiment, the Malaysia Palm Oil Council projected demand could recover after March, driven by a tightening supply of sunflower oil due to heavy frontloading of Black Sea exports. Meantime, Reuters forecasts Malaysian palm oil futures may average higher in 2025, lifted by Indonesia’s push for a higher biodiesel mandate. However, weak Chinese data capped further gains, after official PMI readings revealed a surprise drop in factory activity and slower services growth at the start of 2025. On the export side, cargo surveyors noted Malaysian palm oil shipments fell between 18.9% and 24.1% during January 1–25 compared to the same period a month earlier. Trading was also muted ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with markets scheduled to close on Wednesday.

Palm Oil Extend Gains to Begin the Week

Gold dropped below $2,760 per ounce on Monday as investors geared up for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, marking the first pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in September. However, market focus will likely be on how the Fed reacts to comments from President Donald Trump, who has called for continued interest rate cuts. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, Trump’s policies are seen as inflationary which could lead the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer, reducing gold's appeal. Additionally, the precious metal faces downward pressure from a rebound in the U.S. dollar, amid renewed tariff concerns after Trump said he will impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after the country refused U.S. military planes carrying deported migrants to land.

Gold Falls, Eyes on Fed Decision

Brent crude oil futures fell to around $77.6 per barrel on Monday, after logging its first weekly drop this year, as President Donald Trump ignited trade concerns and demanded OPEC+ to lower crude prices. Trump said he will impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after it denied entry to U.S. military deportation flights. In response, Colombia, a key U.S. trading partner and oil supplier, threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. This, along with the ongoing threats of tariffs on major economies such as China, Canada, and Mexico, heightened concerns about global economic growth and energy demand. Adding further pressure to the oil market, Trump urged OPEC+ to reduce costs and boost production. He also warned of penalties against Russia if it didn’t make a deal to end the war in Ukraine. However, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have yet to respond to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates have instead pointed to a plan already to increase output starting in April.

Brent Extends Weekly Decline

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $73.8 per barrel on Monday, after logging its first weekly drop this year, as President Donald Trump ignited trade concerns and demanded OPEC+ to lower crude prices. Trump said he will impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after it denied entry to U.S. military deportation flights. In response, Colombia, a key U.S. trading partner and oil supplier, threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. This, along with the ongoing threats of tariffs on major economies such as China, Canada, and Mexico, heightened concerns about global economic growth and energy demand. Adding further pressure to the oil market, Trump urged OPEC+ to reduce costs and boost production. He also warned of penalties against Russia if it didn’t make a deal to end the war in Ukraine. However, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have yet to respond to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates have instead pointed to a plan already to increase output starting in April.

Oil Extends Weekly Decline

Zinc decreased to a 19-week low of 2824.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Zinc lost 7%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 9.61%.

Zinc Hits 19-week Low

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was down for a ninth successive day on Friday, falling about 46 points to a new low since February 2023 at 778 points, amid lower seasonal demand. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, slumped 98 points to its lowest level since March 2023 at 983 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, declined 30 points to its lowest since May 2020 at 774 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased for the 15 straight day, shedding about 15 points to a fresh low since February 2023 at 639 points. The benchmark index plunged over 21% over the week.

Baltic Dry Index Extends Slide Into 9th Day, Posts Weekly Drop

Gold increased to a 12-week high of 2778.00 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Gold gained 5.5%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 37.54%.

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