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PHÂN TÍCH KỸ THUẬT 23/04/2025

VÀNG GIẢM MẠNH SAU KHI LẬP ĐỈNH – TÍN HIỆU ĐIỀU CHỈNH HAY CHỈ LÀ RUNG CÂY?

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💥 XAU/USD PHÁ ĐỈNH, NHÀ ĐẦU TƯ SẴN SÀNG CHƯA?”

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Vàng

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EUR/USD Tiếp Tục Giảm Giá Khi Fed Duy Trì Chính Sách Diều Hâu

THỊ TRƯỜNG VÀNG NGÀY 17/04

💥VÀNG TIẾP TỤC LẬP ĐỈNH LỊCH SỬ MỚI – CHẠM NGƯỠNG 3,357 USD 💥

🔔 [PHÂN TÍCH VÀNG HÔM NAY – XAU/USD]

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Giá vàng thế giới lập kỷ lục mới, đạt 3.306 USD/ounce trong bối cảnh căng thẳng thương mại gia tăng

VÀNG PHÁ ĐỈNH MỚI – TÂM LÝ FOMO LÊN CAO

PHÂN TÍCH VÀNG 16/04/2025

🗓️ Cập nhật ngày 15/04/2025

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BỨT PHÁ THÀNH CÔNG, VÀNG NHẮM MỐC $3300

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VÀNG LẬP ĐỈNH MỚI: LIỆU CÓ PHẢI LÀ "PARABOL CUỐI" TRƯỚC CÚ RŨ?

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Hôm nay, ngày 10/4/2025, thị trường vàng trong nước và quốc tế ghi nhận những biến động đáng chú ý.

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tình trạng vàng

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Phân tích XAUUSD – Ngày 09/04

"Vàng bật tăng trở lại sau đợt điều chỉnh sâu – phe mua chiếm lại thế chủ động"

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Phân tích XAUUSD 03/04/2025

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phân tích cá nhân trong ngày

Khi nói đến đầu tư, không phải thứ gì lấp lánh cũng là vàng" (Investing.com, 31/03/2025):

Chiến lược GOLD – Sóng 5 hoàn tất, sóng giảm ABC bắt đầu hình thành

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📉 [THỊ TRƯỜNG VÀNG - CẬP NHẬT NGÀY 25/03]

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💥 [GIÁ VÀNG 23/3/2025] – GIẢM NHẸ NHƯNG CHƯA HẾT NÓNG!

📉 [CẬP NHẬT GIÁ VÀNG 23/3/2025] – Đà giảm chưa dứt, SJC vẫn trên 97 triệu/lượng

Phân tích vàng quốc tế ngày 24/3/2025

Vàng Tiến Sát 3040 USD – Cơ Hội Hay Cạm Bẫy? ⚠️

The New Zealand dollar edged lower to around $0.598 on Friday but remained on track for its third consecutive weekly advance, amid optimism over U.S.-China trade talks. President Donald Trump asserted on Thursday that negotiations between Washington and Beijing are ongoing, countering claims by China that no discussions had taken place. Earlier this week, Trump hinted at easing his aggressive trade stance with China—New Zealand’s largest trading partner—suggesting a significant reduction in his steep tariffs on Chinese imports. Domestically, expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continue to weigh on the currency. Markets remain fully priced for a 25bps rate cut at the RBNZ’s May meeting, with rates seen potentially bottoming at 2.75% by year-end.

New Zealand Dollar Heads for 3rd Weekly Gain

The New Zealand dollar appreciated to around $0.596 on Thursday, buoyed by renewed optimism over potential progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday stated that high tariffs between the U.S. and China are unsustainable, signaling potential de-escalation. President Donald Trump has also reiterated his intention to lower tariffs on China, but insisted the timeline for any relief will depend on Beijing. At the same time, the Kiwi dollar benefitted from broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. Domestically, sentiment was further lifted by encouraging economic data. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey showed consumer confidence rose to a four-month high in April (98.3 vs 93.2 in March), shoring up the upward trend that was starting to look wobbly.

New Zealand Dollar Rises

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.597 on Wednesday amid hopes of a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war after President Donald Trump said he would negotiate with China. On Tuesday, Trump said he would be "very nice" in talks with China—New Zealand's largest trading partner—and indicated that tariffs on Chinese imports could be significantly reduced following a deal, albeit not to zero. The Kiwi dollar also drew support from broad U.S. dollar weakness. Domestically, however, expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remain a headwind for the currency. Markets are firmly pricing in a 25bps rate cut in May, with rates seen falling to 2.75% by year-end.

Kiwi Dollar Gains on Hopes for US-China Trade Deal

The New Zealand dollar rose above $0.60 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since early November last year, driven by US economic uncertainty that dampened investor confidence in US assets. On Monday, President Trump reiterated his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, suggested the possibility of removing him, and warned that the US economy could slow unless interest rates are cut immediately. Domestically, March trade data showed a 19% year-on-year increase in New Zealand’s exports, while imports grew by 12%. These trends contributed to a double trade surplus of $970 million, the largest since the pandemic in 2020. On the monetary policy front, markets fully expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its 3.5% cash rate by 25 bps in May, with a further reduction to 2.75% by year-end.

Kiwi Dollar Climbs to Over 5-Month High

The New Zealand Dollar exchange rate rose above 0.6 US Dollars in the foreign exchange interbank market.

New Zealand Dollar traded above 0.6

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.597 on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence under the Trump administration. The greenback came under pressure as White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett stated on Friday that President Trump and his team were continuing to study whether they could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, following Trump’s remark a day earlier that Powell’s termination "cannot come fast enough," as he called for the Fed to lower interest rates. On the domestic front, markets still fully expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its 3.5% cash rate by 25bps in May, and lower it to 2.75% by year-end. This came despite last week’s stronger-than-expected first-quarter consumer inflation figures.

NZ Dollar Gains as Greenback Weakens

The New Zealand dollar held steady around $0.597 on Friday, pausing a seven-day winning streak, as expectations of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sapped the momentum. This came despite stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data in Q1, while core inflation measures eased. With price pressures contained and still within the RBNZ’s target range, markets continue to anticipate a rate cut in May and a reduction of the cash rate to 2.75% by year-end. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring US trade policy developments, given New Zealand’s strong export ties—especially with China, its largest trading partner. President Trump expressed confidence on Thursday that a trade deal with China could be finalized within three to four weeks. The Kiwi is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain.

New Zealand Dollar Pauses Rally

The New Zealand dollar slipped to around $0.591 on Thursday, snapping a six-day winning streak as higher-than-expected consumer inflation data failed to shift market expectations of further monetary easing. New Zealand's annual inflation rate rose to 2.5% in the first quarter, slightly above market forecasts of 2.3%, from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Despite the increase, the number is comfortably within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1–3% target range for a third consecutive quarter, reinforcing the view that it won’t prevent additional rate cuts. Markets remain fully priced for another 25bps rate at the RBNZ’s next policy meeting in May, with rates seen potentially bottoming at 2.75% by year-end. The currency also faced pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before making any changes to interest rates.

NZ Dollar Falls Despite Strong CPI Data

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.590 on Wednesday, marking its seventh consecutive session of gains and hovering near its highest level since early December 2024. The sustained rally reflects improving global risk sentiment as Trump signaled a possible delay to auto tariffs after suspending levies on some tech products. However, caution remains as the U.S. Commerce Department launched national security probes into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, a move that could pave the way for new tariffs. The kiwi also drew support from better-than-expected economic data out of China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Domestically, market focus is now on Thursday’s release of first-quarter CPI data, which is expected to show annual inflation edged up to 2.3% from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its rates by 25bps to 3.5% and investors are currently pricing in further easing to 2.75% by autumn.

Kiwi Dollar Extends Winning Streak

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.590 on Tuesday, gaining for the sixth straight session and reaching its highest level since early December 2024, as risk sentiment continued to improve. This followed the US announcement of a tariff rollback on consumer electronics, along with Trump’s suggestion that he may grant exemptions on existing auto-related tariffs. However, caution lingered as the US Commerce Department launched national security probes into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Domestically, investors are awaiting key economic data this week—including the Q1 consumer inflation report and March trade balance—for further insight into price pressures and overall economic conditions. This follows growing signs of a slowing economy, with the services sector contracting for a second straight month and card spending declining, after the RBNZ’s recent rate cut to 3.5%.

NZ Dollar Hits Over 4-Month High

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.584 on Monday, climbing for the fifth straight session and nearing its highest level since last December, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and improved risk appetite. The US exempted consumer electronics, including many made in China from tariffs, though President Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated Sunday the move may be temporary. Trump also said he would announce the tariff rate on semiconductors this week, with possible flexibility for some firms. The ongoing uncertainty around tariffs has heightened concerns about broader economic fallout, particularly for the US, putting further pressure on the greenback. Domestically, fresh survey data showed New Zealand’s services sector contracted for a second consecutive month, while card spending declined—adding to signs of weakening economic conditions highlighted by the RBNZ following last week’s rate cut to 3.5%.

Kiwi Dollar Climbs for 5th Session

The New Zealand dollar climbed to around $0.578 on Friday, marking its third straight session of gains, driven by broad U.S. dollar weakness amid persistent economic concerns due to escalating tariff tensions. While President Trump gave most countries a 90-day reprieve in enacting his reciprocal tariffs, he sharply increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, heightening fears that Beijing could push retaliatory tariffs beyond the current 84%. This also raised concerns for New Zealand, given its strong trade ties with China. Domestically, the RBNZ recently cut its official cash rate by 25bps to 3.5%, as expected, citing a steady decline in inflation and weakening domestic economic conditions. In economic news, the BusinessNZ PMI revealed that the country's manufacturing activity fell in March (53.2 vs 54.1 in February), although the sector remained in expansion for the third month in a row. For the week, the Kiwi is up more than 3%, on track for its first weekly gain in four.

New Zealand Dollar Extends Gains

The New Zealand dollar steady around $0.56 on Thursday, following a nearly 2% gain from the previous session, as traders assessed risk from rising US-China tensions. While New Zealand has minimal direct trade with the US, its economy is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global trade, particularly with China, the country’s largest export market. Deflationary pressures also intensified in China, with consumer prices falling again in March and producer deflation continuing. Domestically, the RBNZ recently cut its official cash rate by 25bps to 3.5% as expected, citing a continued decline in inflation and weakening domestic economic conditions. The decision was also influenced by downside risks to New Zealand’s economy from global trade barriers. As a result, investors are almost fully pricing in the likelihood that the central bank will cut rates by another quarter point in May, with rates expected to fall to 2.75% or lower by year-end.

New Zealand Dollar Steady

The New Zealand dollar traded around $0.553 on Wednesday, lacking clear direction after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated rate cut. The RBNZ lowered its official cash rate by 25bps to 3.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing a steady decline in inflation and weakening domestic economic conditions. The central bank also warned of downside risks to New Zealand’s export-driven economy from global trade barriers. Additionally, the currency remains vulnerable to concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies could inflict economic pain globally, particularly for China—New Zealand’s largest export market. Trump’s outsized tariffs are set to take effect later today, including an expected 104% tariff on China.

New Zealand Dollar Wobbles After RBNZ Rate Cut

The New Zealand Dollar exchange rate decreased below 0.55 US Dollars in the foreign exchange interbank market.

New Zealand Dollar traded below 0.55

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.557 on Tuesday, following recent sharp declines after President Trump signaled openness to “fair deals” if other countries make concessions. However, a bearish outlook persisted as he also refused to pause tariffs and threatened further increases on Chinese imports. This poses a significant risk to New Zealand’s export-driven economy, particularly since China, its largest trading partner, is already facing steep tariffs on nearly all goods, with total duties reaching 54%. Meanwhile, domestic attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision on Wednesday, with a widely expected 25bps cut likely to bring the official cash rate down to 3.5%. The move comes amid easing inflation, slowing economic growth, and emerging signs of labor market weakness. There is also speculation that escalating global trade tensions could lead to a deeper 50 bps cut, with expectations of up to 100 bps of further easing in 2025.

NZDUSD decreased to a 29-month low of 0.55. Over the past 4 weeks, New Zealand Dollar US Dollar lost 3.41%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 8.51%.

New Zealand Dollar Hits 29-month Low

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.557 on Monday, building on a more than 3% decline from the previous session and nearing multi-year lows, as risk-off sentiment dominated markets. The drop followed the US announcement of unexpectedly high tariffs last week, triggering retaliatory measures from major economies and raising fears of a global trade conflict. This poses a particular threat to New Zealand’s export-dependent economy, especially with China, its largest trading partner, facing steep tariffs on nearly all goods, bringing total levies to 54%. Domestically, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated, potentially lowering the cash rate to 3.5%. The move reflects a backdrop of cooling inflation, declining annual output, and emerging labor market weakness.

NZ Dollar Approaches Multi-Year Lows

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.575 on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session, which was driven by broader U.S. dollar weakness as President Donald Trump sweeping tariffs raised fears of an economic slump. Investor focus now turns to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later today for insights into the health of the U.S. economy and the trajectory of interest rates. Domestically, the currency faces pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut at its meeting next week. Most economists also anticipate another 25bps reduction in May and a third cut in Q3, which would bring the rate to 3.00% by the end of September. Despite Friday’s decline, the New Zealand dollar remains on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks.

New Zealand Dollar Eases

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.574 on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of gains, despite New Zealand being hit by President Donald Trump’s 10% baseline import tariff. The currency also benefited from a declining U.S. dollar as Trump’s sweeping new tariffs heightened trade tensions and stoked concerns about slowing economic growth. However, among the affected nations, China faced the biggest-ever tariff hike on nearly all Chinese products, bringing total levies to 54%. This could place significant downward pressure on the Kiwi dollar, given that New Zealand’s economy is heavily reliant on exports to China. Domestically, the currency also faces additional downward pressure amid the dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with the central bank suggesting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Kiwi Dollar Rises Despite Trump’s Tariff

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.572 on Wednesday, marking a gain for the second consecutive session, despite the impending announcement of US reciprocal tariffs later today. While New Zealand has minimal direct trade with the US, its economy remains highly sensitive to global trade fluctuations due to its heavy reliance on exports. Domestically, expectations for further easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand persist, with markets forecasting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. This comes after the central bank cut its key rate last February, and flagged further reductions in borrowing costs amid moderating inflation and as they sought to revive a struggling economy. Meanwhile, positive sentiment from China's recent strong PMI data has supported the antipodean currency, given China's status as New Zealand's primary trading partner.

Kiwi Dollar Gains for 2nd Session

The New Zealand dollar traded around $0.567 on Tuesday, hovering near a four-week low as risk sentiment remained under pressure ahead of the announcement of additional US tariffs. President Trump stated late Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs set to be announced on Wednesday would impact nearly all countries, dispelling market hopes that the levies might be limited. At home, expectations of further easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand persist, with markets projecting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. Meanwhile, private data showed that factory activity expanded to a four-month high, following government data that revealed manufacturing sector growth had reached its highest level in a year. The upbeat Chinese data helped cushion some losses, given China’s role as New Zealand’s top trading partner.

Kiwi Dollar Hovers at 4-Week Low

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline to around $0.571 on Monday, a two-week low, as concerns over the US's planned Wednesday announcement on reciprocal tariffs continued to pressure the export-reliant currency. Last week, President Trump reaffirmed plans to impose auto duties, prompting Canada and the European Union to threaten retaliatory trade actions. Domestically, the Kiwi remained under pressure due to expectations of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with markets projecting at least two cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, an upbeat Chinese PMI helped pare some losses, given China’s role as New Zealand’s top trading partner. Data showed that China’s manufacturing sector expanded for the second straight month, reaching its fastest pace in a year.

New Zealand Dollar Extends Losses

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.571 on Friday, heading for its second consecutive weekly decline, as investors were cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, following latest levies on imported autos. Meanwhile, traders now await the U.S. PCE inflation data due on later today, which could offer more clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Domestically, the currency also faced pressure amid expectations of additional rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Economists see the RBNZ still on track to ease policy further in April and May, despite last week’s better-than-expected GDP figures. Adding to the negative sentiment, data showed the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell by four points to 93.2 in March, while the current conditions index dropped five points to 81.9, reflecting growing concerns about the domestic economic outlook.

New Zealand Dollar Set for 2nd Weekly Loss

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.574 on Thursday as the U.S. dollar retreated after President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on April 2. This tariff will coincide with other reciprocal levies planned by the U.S., raising concerns of a broader trade war that could hurt economic growth. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings recently projected that New Zealand and other regional economies would be less affected by U.S. trade measures, lending some support to the Kiwi dollar. Domestically, however, expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continue to weigh on the currency. Economists see the RBNZ remains on track to implement additional rate cuts in April and May, despite GDP figures last week surprising to the upside.

New Zealand Dollar Gains on Softer US Dollar

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.574 on Wednesday, extending gains from the prior session amid hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump would take a more measured approach on tariffs. Trump on Monday indicated that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and hinted at potential exemptions, but provided no details. In addition, S&P Global Ratings projected that New Zealand and other regional economies would be less affected by U.S. trade measures. Domestically, however, the kiwi remains under pressure due to expectations of further monetary easing, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaling two 25bps rate reductions in April and May, and a possible third cut later in the year.

New Zealand Dollar Gains for 2nd Day

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.574 on Tuesday after five consecutive declines, as optimism over possible US tariff exemptions provided some relief to the export-driven currency. However, investor caution persists over upcoming duties on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other industries planned by President Trump and their potential impact on global growth. Domestically, despite last week’s strong GDP data, markets still expect further monetary easing from the RBNZ. In their February meeting, policymakers signaled two 25bps cuts in April and May, with a possible third later in the year. Meanwhile, the Kiwi could find support from anticipated Chinese stimulus aimed at boosting consumption, potentially benefiting New Zealand exports given China’s role as a key trade partner.

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline to around $0.572 on Tuesday, hovering near a one-week low, as prospects of looser RBNZ policy and looming US reciprocal tariffs weighed on the export-driven currency. President Trump announced duties on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other industries while hinting that some nations may receive exemptions or reductions on April 2. At home, despite last week’s strong GDP data, markets still anticipate further easing from the central bank. Policymakers signaled during their February meeting two 25bps cuts in April and May, with a potential third later in the year. Meanwhile, the Kiwi could find relief from expected Chinese stimulus designed to spur consumption, which may boost New Zealand exports given China’s role as a key trade partner.

Kiwi Dollar Extends Bearish Run

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline to around $0.573 on Monday, hovering at a one-week low, as concerns over the looming April 2 deadline for US reciprocal tariffs weighed on the export-reliant currency. However, President Trump suggested there could be "flexibility" in the tariff plans, and recent reports indicate the scope might be narrower than expected, potentially exempting some industries from the full impact. Domestically, last week's data confirmed the economy had exited recession, but expectations of further RBNZ rate cuts this year remained unchanged. At its last meeting, policymakers flagged two 25 bps cuts in April and May, with the possibility of a third later in the year. Meanwhile, the Kiwi could find support from anticipated Chinese stimulus aimed at boosting consumption, given China’s key role as New Zealand’s major trading partner.

Kiwi Dollar Remains Under Pressure

The New Zealand dollar held its recent decline to around $0.575 on Friday amid risk-off sentiment due to lingering trade war concerns. Investor caution persisted as U.S. President Donald Trump remained poised to implement reciprocal tariff against key trading partners on April 2. Further weighing on the Kiwi was a stronger U.S. dollar, which strengthened after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut interest rates further. Domestically, the currency failed to gain support from data showing New Zealand’s economy had climbed out of a recession, given significant pockets of weakness. Expectations for policy easing remain firm, with markets pricing in around 60bps of rate cuts—equivalent to two or three reductions—by year-end. Despite these headwinds, the New Zealand dollar is still heading for a modest weekly gain.

New Zealand Dollar Holds Decline

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.579 on Thursday, even after data showed the economy has emerged from recession. New Zealand's economy grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 0.4% rise and the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 0.3%, following a revised 1.1% contraction in Q3. Meanwhile, annual GDP fell 1.1%, slightly better than the expected 1.4% decline. Despite the improvement, the RBNZ is unlikely to alter its planned rate cuts, as economic weakness persists and external headwinds, particularly the escalating trade tensions, continue to pose risks. In February, the central bank lowered its official cash rate by 50bps to 3.75% and signaled an additional two 25-basis-point cuts in April and May. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and kept its forecast for two cuts amid high uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

New Zealand Dollar Weakens After GDP Data

The New Zealand dollar traded around $0.581 on Tuesday, hovering at its highest level since early December, driven by growing optimism about China’s economic outlook. This followed upbeat retail sales data and fresh Chinese initiatives aimed at encouraging consumer spending, boosting the China-proxy Kiwi. Further lifting the antipodean currency was ongoing US dollar weakness amid economic uncertainties and heightened trade tensions. Domestically, recent survey data on the services sector signaled an uneven recovery from recession, reinforcing the case for further rate cuts in line with the central bank’s signal of additional easing last month. Traders now await this week’s Q4 GDP data, expected to show a modest rebound in the Kiwi economy.

Kiwi Hovers at 3-Month High

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.576 on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, supported by continued weakness in the US dollar amid trade uncertainties and mounting economic concerns. The antipodean currency also benefited from upbeat data from China, a key trading partner, as retail sales rose in line with forecasts. This comes after China introduced a targeted initiative over the weekend to stimulate consumption through salary increases, higher household spending, and efforts to steady stock and real estate markets. Domestically, New Zealand’s Business NZ Performance of Services Index fell to 49.1 in February from 50.4 in January, signaling renewed contraction in the services sector. Traders now await Q4 GDP data this week, expected to show a slight rebound in the Kiwi economy.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.57 on Friday, recouping some losses after falling 0.5% in the previous session on concerns over an escalating global trade war. US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his stance on implementing reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners, set to take effect on April 2. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected inflation figures in the US reinforced bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Domestically, the Kiwi found support from strong manufacturing PMI data. New Zealand's manufacturing activity in February rose to its highest level since August 2022, driven by increased production and new orders. Meanwhile, the country’s annual food inflation inched up to 2.4% in February from 2.3% in the previous month.

New Zealand Dollar Rises After Sharp Fall

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.573 on Thursday as the U.S. dollar remained subdued amid growing concerns about U.S. trade policies. While weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation provided some relief to investors, worries about the potential impact of intensifying tariff wars on economic growth continue to weigh on sentiment. This comes after President Donald Trump pledged to impose more tariffs after his latest move to introduce import taxes on steel and aluminium prompted retaliation from the EU and Canada. However, the Kiwi’s gains were limited by concerns over persistent deflationary pressures in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which could dampen demand for the country’s exports. Domestically, the currency remains under pressure as RBNZ signaled further rate cuts in its last policy meeting, though it emphasized a more cautious approach to future moves.

New Zealand Dollar Gains

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.57 on Wednesday, as worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies continue to dampen risk appetite. Meanwhile, investors now await the U.S. CPI report, due later in the day, to analyze the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path amid escalating trade tensions and economic slowdown fears. Additionally, concerns over persistent deflationary pressures in China, New Zealand's biggest export market, further weighed on the Kiwi. Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar fell to post-pandemic lows against a strengthening euro, after Ukraine said it would accept a 30-day ceasefire with Russia following talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. However, Russia has yet to respond to the proposal.

New Zealand Dollar Drops

The New Zealand dollar extended its decline to around $0.569 on Tuesday as rising fears of a US tariff-induced economic downturn heightened risk aversion. In a Sunday interview, President Donald Trump called the economy "in transition" but failed to calm investors. Escalating trade tensions, with back-and-forth tariff moves between major economies, also pressured the export-reliant currency. In New Zealand, markets nearly fully price in three more rate cuts this year, bringing rates to 3%, following aggressive hikes that pushed the economy into recession. On the economic data front, the country’s manufacturing sales rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, the first gain in nine quarters.

New Zealand Dollar Weakens

The New Zealand dollar edged up to around $0.571 on Monday as the US dollar remained weak amid rising concerns about economic health. However, gains were limited by weaker-than-expected Chinese consumer price data, highlighting risks of deflationary pressures. This weighed on the China-proxy Kiwi, given China’s role as a major trading partner for New Zealand. The export-reliant currency was also constrained by global trade uncertainties, as China’s retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods took effect, following the US hiking tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%. Domestically, investors are closely watching RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby’s speech on the February monetary policy statement, alongside developments on the unexpected resignation of Governor Adrian Orr.

New Zealand Dollar Edges Higher

The New Zealand dollar eased to around $0.571 on Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain, amid a weak U.S. dollar as President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies fanned uncertainty and raised concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later today for more clues on the health of the economy. The kiwi also gained support this week from China’s pledge of additional stimulus beyond the fiscal spending measures outlined in its annual work report on Wednesday. Meanwhile, domestic investors are closely watching developments following the unexpected resignation of Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr.

New Zealand Dollar Set for Weekly Advance

The New Zealand dollar climbed to around $0.573 on Thursday, reaching a one-week high amid improved risk sentiment after the U.S. granted temporary tariff relief for automakers. On Monday, President Donald Trump has given automakers a one-month reprieve from his 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Additional support for the Kiwi came from fresh fiscal stimulus measures pledged by China, which signaled stronger efforts to boost consumption and protect economic growth amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring domestic developments following the unexpected resignation of Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr, who stepped down three years before the end of his second five-year term without providing a specific reason.

New Zealand Dollar Hits 1-Week High

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.564 on Wednesday as escalating global trade tensions weighed on the export-driven currency. Sentiment soured after U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs took effect on Tuesday, imposing a 25% duty on imports from Canada and Mexico, and doubling tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%. These measures prompted immediate retaliatory actions from affected nations, exacerbating fears of a broader trade war. In domestic news, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr unexpectedly announced his resignation earlier today, three years before his second five-year term ends. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will serve as Acting Governor until March 31, when Orr officially steps down. Orr’s departure comes as inflation has been largely contained, and economic growth is projected to accelerate in the year ahead.

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.561 on Tuesday, erasing gains from the previous session, as rising global trade tensions continued to pressure the export-reliant currency. The White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump signed an order raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, though similar orders for Mexico and Canada remain pending. Domestically, markets maintained dovish expectations for the RBNZ after the central bank signaled potential 25bps rate cuts in April and May, citing long-term risks such as US tariffs that could slow global growth. On the data front, the number of building consents issued for new dwellings in New Zealand rose by 2.6% month-on-month reaching a seasonally adjusted total of 2,768 units in January.

Kiwi Dollar Weakens on Trade Risks

The New Zealand dollar stabilized around $0.561 on Monday after six sessions of decline, supported by upbeat Chinese economic data. A private survey showed China's factory activity grew at its fastest pace in three months, following an official report of the strongest manufacturing expansion since November. As a key trading partner, China’s stronger PMI boosted the Kiwi dollar. However, gains remained limited by escalating trade tensions, with Trump imposing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting Tuesday, on top of last month’s 10% hike. He also confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods will take effect on March 4. The growing risk of a global trade war continues to pressure the export-exposed currency. In economic news, the merchandise (goods) terms of trade in New Zealand rose 3.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December, surpassing market expectations of a 1.1% growth.

New Zealand Dollar Stabilizes

The New Zealand dollar dropped toward $0.56 on Friday, hitting its lowest level in two weeks as worries over a potential global trade war intensified. President Donald Trump confirmed that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, alongside an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports following one that went into effect earlier this month. China is New Zealand’s largest export market, making the country vulnerable to any policies that could weaken demand there. Domestically, the currency remains under pressure following the RBNZ's dovish monetary policy guidance. In economic news, a private survey showed New Zealand's consumer confidence rose slightly in February, while business sentiment also improved. However, these failed to boost the Kiwi, as global trade tensions and domestic monetary policy concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. The currency is down more than 2% so far this week, on track for its first weekly decline in four.

NZ Dollar Falls to 2-Week Low on Trade War Fears

The New Zealand dollar held its recent decline to around $0.569 on Thursday, hovering near its lowest level in a week. The Kiwi was weighed down by a rising U.S. dollar, amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies following vague pledges from President Donald Trump about imposing tariffs on Europe, along with further delays to planned levies on Canada and Mexico. Domestically, the currency remains under pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish monetary policy guidance. Last week, the RBNZ delivered a significant rate cut and signaled further reductions, though it emphasized a more cautious approach to future moves. In economic news, a private survey showed New Zealand's business confidence rose in February as the economy remains on a path to recovery. However, this was not enough to lift the Kiwi, as broader concerns over global trade tensions and domestic monetary policy continued to dominate sentiment.

New Zealand Dollar Remains Weak

The New Zealand dollar dropped to around $0.571 on Wednesday, with traders awaiting February’s business confidence report, set for release on Thursday. Attention also remained on the interest rate outlook following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent rate cut, which continued to weigh on the currency. Last week, the RBNZ delivered a significant rate cut and signaled further reductions, though it emphasized a more cautious approach to future moves. On the economic front, recent data showed that retail sales rebounded solidly in the fourth quarter, adding to signs that lower interest rates are helping the economy emerge from recession. Meanwhile, global trade developments also added to market uncertainty. President Donald Trump indicated proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada were still set to start next week, while reports emerged that the U.S. plans to tighten chip export controls on China, a major trading partner for New Zealand.

The New Zealand dollar held its recent decline to around $0.573 on Tuesday after President Donald Trump indicated that proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would proceed next week, disappointing investors who had hoped negotiations would prevent them. This dampened sentiment toward the New Zealand economy, which relies on resource exports and makes the antipodean currency sensitive to the risk of a global trade war. Domestically, focus remained on the interest rate outlook following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent rate cut. Strong retail sales data reinforced expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts, supporting the central bank’s signal that future reductions would likely be smaller and that the easing cycle was nearing its end.

New Zealand Dollar Remains Subdued

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.577 on Monday, recouping losses from the previous session to trade at more than two-month high after domestic data showed strong retail sales. New Zealand’s retail trade increased 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, the largest gain in three years, following a revised flat reading in the previous period. This supported expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts, aligning with the RBNZ’s signal last week that future reductions would likely be smaller and that the easing cycle was nearing its end. Additionally, China released its 2025 policy statement, focusing on rural reforms and revitalization. Optimism about its stimulus measures supports the Kiwi dollar, given China’s trade ties with New Zealand. Externally, a weaker US dollar further boosts the NZD, as soft US data raises concerns about the economy, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further.

Kiwi Dollar Rises to Over 2-Month High

The New Zealand dollar traded around $0.576 on Friday, hovering at its highest level in over two months and on track for its third consecutive weekly gain. On Thursday, the currency surged 1% after U.S. President Donald Trump stated a trade deal with China was "possible", although he did not provide specific details. China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner, and trade tensions between China and the U.S. could significantly impact the New Zealand economy. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday delivered a widely expected 50bps cut to its official cash rate to a two year low of 3.75%. While the central bank signaled the possibility of further rate reductions, it also indicated that future cuts would likely be smaller and that the easing cycle was nearing the end. In economic news, the country’s trade deficit narrowed sharpy to NZ$486 million in January from NZ$1,064 million in the same month last year, as exports rose much faster than imports.

New Zealand Dollar Hovers at Over 2-Month High

The New Zealand dollar stabilized around $0.571 on Wednesday after initially declining in response to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision and commentary that suggested more cuts were likely. The central bank cut the official cash rate by 50bps to 3.75%, as widely expected, bringing the total easing over the past six months to 175bps. The decision came amid signs of moderating inflation, with policymakers aiming to revive a struggling economy. The RBNZ also flagged further reductions, projecting the cash rate to drop to 3.45% by June and 3.10% by year-end. Governor Adrian Orr reinforced this outlook, confirming a rate cut in April and then May sounds about right.

NZ Dollar Stabilizes After RBNZ Decision

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.571 on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak and retreating from a two-month high as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting. The RBNZ is expected to cut its official cash rate by a supersized 50 bps on Wednesday, bringing it down to 3.75% amid rising unemployment, contracting economic growth, and inflation concerns. Traders will also focus on RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference after the rate decision, which may offer clues about the interest rate outlook. Speculation suggests the central bank could reduce its base rate by 25 bps at each of the next two meetings in April and May. Externally, a rise in the US dollar after a three-day decline added pressure, following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

NZ Dollar Retreats Ahead of RBNZ Decision

The New Zealand dollar strengthened to around $0.574 on Monday, rising for the third consecutive session to a four-week high, supported by a weaker US dollar following a downside surprise in US retail sales last week. The weak US data has raised concerns about the health of the world's largest economy and led investors to anticipate at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to meet on Wednesday and is widely expected to cut rates by 50 bps to 3.75%, while signaling a slower pace of reductions toward 3% or 3.25% by year-end. On the economic data front, New Zealand's Performance of Services Index rose to 50.4 in January from a revised 48.1 in December, indicating a slight expansion in the services sector after ten consecutive months of contraction.

Kiwi Dollar Climbs to 4-Week High

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.569 on Friday, extending gains from the previous session, supported by a softer US dollar after President Donald Trump delayed imposing hefty levies. He stated that reciprocal tariffs would take effect only after the White House reviews appropriate tariff levels for each country, providing some relief to traders. Meanwhile, US PPI inflation rose more than expected in January, leading markets to push back Fed rate cut expectations to September from June. Domestically, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 50 bps next week to 3.75%, with markets anticipating a further 75 bps reduction this year. On the data front, New Zealand’s factory activity grew in January for the first time in nearly two years, marking its strongest expansion since September 2022. For the week, the currency is poised for a second consecutive gain.

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.564 on Thursday, erasing earlier gains, as traders shifted their focus back to the announcement of new US tariffs. President Donald Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on any country that levies duties on US imports, heightening concerns about an escalating global trade war. Markets are particularly focused on growth risks tied to Chinese imports, as developments in China’s currency impact the Kiwi dollar. Additionally, hot US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts. At home, traders assessed the RBNZ’s latest monetary conditions survey, which presented a mixed outlook. New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations fell to 2.06% in Q1 from 2.12% in Q4 2024, while one-year expectations rose to 2.15% from 2.05%. Investors continued to speculate on further RBNZ rate cuts ahead of next week’s policy meeting, following three cuts last year that lowered borrowing costs to 4.25%.

Kiwi Dollar Reverses Early Gains

The New Zealand dollar steadied around $0.564 on Thursday as traders assessed the RBNZ's latest monetary conditions survey, which presented a mixed outlook for Q1 2025. New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations fell to 2.06% in Q1 from 2.12% in Q4 2024, but one-year expectations rose to 2.15% from 2.05%. Investors continued to speculate on further RBNZ rate cuts ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting next week, following three cuts last year that lowered borrowing costs to 4.25%. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dollar came under pressure on Wednesday after hot US inflation data reinforced expectations of prolonged Fed rate holds, weighing on G10 currencies. Nevertheless, speculation about a possible pause in the Russia-Ukraine war lifted risk sentiment, helping offset some losses for the antipodean currency. Markets continued to monitor growth risks from Trump’s new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports, with the latter impacting the Kiwi dollar.

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