Maintaining a buy US dollars, buy commodities and sell stocks bias. Would be selling AUDUSD at MARKET with stop loss .7212. 

Still selling AUD since .7745

Maintaining a buy US dollars, buy commodities and sell stocks bias. Would be selling EURUSD on stop 1.0511 with stop loss 1.0659. 

sell Our downside break again

BEAR

keep buying

Again a fresh additional buy here near the highs so far. If it runs way it could become a fast market higher.

Just Keep Buying

Again a fresh additional sell here near the lows so far. If it gives way it could become a fast market lower.

Just Keep Selling

Again a fresh additional sell here near the lows so far. If it gives way it could become a fast market lower. 

Keep Selling now there is even War risk :(

The catalyst is the Federal Reserve minutes, but the market was already teetering in any case.   Please be aware that the Australian market may play very quick catch up to a far harsher reality fundamental situation that anyone wants to consider.  This is very real economic demise in the form of pre-existing supply chain disruption, now Omi causing further widespread and severe dislocation, and coming just when the Federal Reserve, belatedly behind several other central banks, begins to raise interest rates.   The key takeaway is to be careful, as it would not be the first time a major top or low for the year, was seen in the first week of trading.

Trade of the day; just keep selling AUS200 with a stop at 7565

COLLAPSE IS HAPPENING

It would not be the first time the US stock market either peaked or bottomed for the rest of the year in the very first week of trading. See a sneaky opportunity here to sell at market, currently around 4791. with a stop loss at 4813. If it did fall for the rest of the year that is a fantastic risk/reward idea at least. 

US500 may be a quick sell in case the top

We all need to be very aware that stocks can crash at any moment now. Use hedging instruments aggressively.  

Stocks at Crisis Edge

China Data confirms permanent economic slowing.

For some time we have been forecasting that the slow-down currently occurring in China is a permanent historic re-setting of the economy to somewhat more normal by western standards levels of activity.  As far as I know, no one else is seeing this, but that is the nature of human beings, to rely too heavily on recency. Most see this as a temporary pandemic after-shock, but it is much more than that. 

This latest data run below clearly displays the entrenched nature of the economy moderating in all areas. Of particular concern for Australia, given a deteriorating relationship, is that original broad demand from China for raw materials will see significantly lower levels of growth. If any.

As is always the case with any capitalist economic system which is what China has pursued until recently, there is a cyclical nature that seems inescapable. For China, all of this has been on another quantum level as more than one fifth of the world's population began the long shift from largely agrarian to an industrial powerhouse and modern consumer society.

What I am declaring here, is that China's 20 odd year catch up to the west is now complete.

The economic system maturing there will now settle at vastly lower rates of growth. China will still grow strongly, but on a more modest and to some degree more sustainable trajectory.

The readjustments that will flow from this will be global in nature. Another major reason to be cautious about global growth over the next few years.

The outlook for Australian trade is without a doubt greatly diminished.

China slowing is permanent and bearish the Australian dolla

Good morning,
Well, that was likely the last 24 hours of upward momentum for the time being. In New York it was stall city.

One has to accept these were strong rallies in equities and the Australian dollar. Again, if new highs were made beyond New York trading, this should be respected as a day trader. In the near term however, this immediate rally, if it hasn't already completed itself, is quite tired here.

US Mortgage Applications had very modest growth against a backdrop of a severe weakening trend. Still, no one speaks of the current situation in the USA as being a property bubble. This is because everyone religiously believes in the idea that if there is free money to be had, near zero rates and bond buying, then property and even the stock market are both safe. The argument has merit as it in back of the huge asset price growth of the past 18 months or so from the pandemic sell-off lows. 

We all know this is coming to an end in 2022, and most probably rather abruptly so. The market is busy at the moment convincing itself that rate hikes will not matter, that they reflect a strong economy and they are, if anything, a fresh buy signal. Watch for this to grow significantly as a theme. Anything, to believe in never ending money making. The argument has more validity than that of course and is the same as I proffered during the 2009 to 2020 grand cycle. This time, again I believe things are different. While no one else believed in the sustainability of the up-trend on that occasion, this time everyone is a believer.

The important difference is that in 2009 I was forecasting considerably higher above market sentiment economic growth. Which did indeed eventuate. This time I am forecasting below consensus economic outcomes, and indeed below what might be considered normal 'trend' growth. While interest rates are being raised, because they are near zero and overly stimulatory for the situation now evolving. In a nutshell, bullish market sentiment, with economic disappointment to remain entrenched as interest rates go up markedly.

That is my cautionary fundamental outlook for the stock market 2022-2025. 

The largest off-setting factor is meme trading. By this I mean people follow like Pavlov's dog the most immediate stimulus offered to them by any celebrity status individual. This individual does not need to have any market awareness or capability. Just a following that will quickly regurgitate the idea around the world for all the puppies to jump onboard. We see this happening in everything from GameStop to Tesla. The distortions and market volatility generated by this struggle between any semblance of the 'reasonable' against simply highly excited puppies running in one direction because the other puppies are running in that direction, knows no bounds.

Fundamentally, with more than all the good news one can imagine for 2022 already priced in, stocks remained vulnerable to a truly significant downward corrective phase.

Price action will need to be watched closely however, as there has never been such overcrowded boats filled with excitable puppies. Global markets are more like a Disney show than ever before.

Clifford Bennett

Clifford Bennett

May 09 2022

Still selling AUD since .7745

1

Clifford Bennett

May 09 2022

sell Our downside break again

1

Clifford Bennett

Jan 25 2022

BEAR

2

Clifford Bennett

Jan 20 2022

keep buying

1

Clifford Bennett

Jan 20 2022

Just Keep Buying

1

Clifford Bennett

Jan 20 2022

Just Keep Selling

Clifford Bennett

Jan 20 2022

Keep Selling now there is even War risk :(

Clifford Bennett

Jan 06 2022

COLLAPSE IS HAPPENING

1

Clifford Bennett

Jan 04 2022

US500 may be a quick sell in case the top

1

Clifford Bennett

Dec 19 2021

Stocks at Crisis Edge

1

3

Clifford Bennett

Dec 15 2021

China slowing is permanent and bearish the Australian dolla

2

Clifford Bennett

Dec 08 2021

It is the puppies, not the bulls or bears, that matter.

1