AUDUSD in a strong bullish trend with the formation of higher highs and higher lows. This formation is continuing towards the upside where we have marked the profit target area. Apart from this, we see slight retracement towards the resistance turn support area, priced at 0.6070. We also see a double bottom forming at this region from where we will go long on the pair. 

Apart from this, there is no trendline indiciation other than the resistance trendline breakout out for buys and having a pending retest, which we might see at the support level. This will give us an additional confluence.

The retracement area has no indication as the market is in a strong bullish flow and we are going to hop on to the train based on the bullish momentum.

The EMA 50 is also bullish and is getting steeper into the bullish angle. Earlier, it was a flat curve. Now as its turning into a steeper one, we evaluate the strength of the bullish momentum forming.

RSI is at 70. This needs to be neutralized at the support level in order for us to get long on the position. This support needs to be tested at prices and with the RSI being at the 50 level, the chances for the pull up would be strong.

AUDUSD simple breakout and retest

AUDUSD has been in a bullish trend since few weeks. At this current resistance level, we see some stalling on the pair heading back towards the region of swing support priced at 0.6940. This support level will be our key take away level for the bullish momentum build up for the long position. it should be noted that the trend is bullish forming higher highs and higher lows. 

The market is in a bearish pennant channel which needs to recollect itself from the lower band of the trendline. This support trendline will play out as the rejection level for the price action and will be in confluence with the support level.

The golden retracement area of 75-78.6% is in confluence with the support level. This support level will play out to be heavy longs continuing towards the upper band of the trendline.

EMA 50 is bullish as well with prices hovering over the current prices. This EMA 50 needs to be retested but as per the charts, it does not seem that the confluence will be formed for the EMA 50.

RSI is at 60 which already indicated the small window towards the over bought side. We need the RSI towards the neutralized zone at the 50 level. If market breaches this 50 level, we have a chance for the market to dive into the over sold area forming a bullish divergence for the market to continue moving up.

AUDUSD correction to move up

The Pair is trading in a range at lower levels. The Pair  is consolidating between 0.70150-0.6982, we need to wait for the Index to break beyond this level, if the Index is able to break on either side, following are the conditions which need to be followed.

If the breakout is on the upside the pair has to close above 0.70150 levels, wait for one candle to close above this level, if it is able to close above the mentioned level start buying.

If the RSI is trading above 73 ignore the breakout.

If the breakout is on the downside the pair has to close below 0.6982 levels, wait for one candle to close below the level, if it is able to close below the mentioned level start selling.

RECTANGLE BREAKOUT

We are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.70000 level zone, with a target TP around the 0.67158 level (Not too greedy at 0.67000)

AUD USD: In a downtrend, potential to revisit 0.67000 level

The Pair is trading in a range at higher levels. The Pair is consolidating between 0.685-0.684, we need to wait for the Pair to break beyond this level, if the Pair is able to break on either side, following are the conditions which need to be followed.

If the breakout is on the upside the pair has to close above 0.685, wait for one candle to close above this level, if it is able to close above the mentioned level start buying.

If the breakout is on the downside the security has to close below 0.684 levels, wait for one candle to close below the level, if it is able to close below the mentioned level start selling.

AUD/USD

The Pair is trading in a range at higher levels. The Pair is consolidating between 0.069435-0.69273, we need to wait for the Pair to break beyond this level, if the Pair is able to break on either side, following are the conditions which need to be followed.

If the breakout is on the upside the Pair has to close above 0.069435 wait for one candle to close above this level, if it is able to close above the mentioned level start buying.

If the breakout is on the downside the security has to close below 0.69273 levels, wait for one candle to close below the level, if it is able to close below the mentioned level start selling.

The offshore yuan strengthened past 6.75 against the dollar, moving towards its highest levels in a month, as softening US consumer and producer price growths in July prompted speculations for peak inflation and a less aggressive Federal Reserve tightening moving forward. This countered weaker-than-expected Chinese inflation numbers for July, with consumer prices rising 2.7% or 20 bps lower than forecasts, while producer prices were up 4.2% or 60 bps lower than analysts predicted. The yuan also found support on expectations that the People’s Bank of China will keep monetary setting unchanged despite pressure for more easing as China continues to grapple with recurring Covid-19 outbreaks, property sector risks and simmering tensions with the US over Taiwan.

Api Economic

Chinese Yuan Rises on Easing Fed Hike View

The British pound was little changed at $1.22, as traders digest the latest GDP figures which showed the UK economy shrank 0.1% in Q2 and 0.6% in June only, with both readings coming half the market forecasts. Although figures were not as bad as expected, they did little to ease concerns that a severe contraction will hit the UK, as skyrocketing prices hurt activity and demand. Early this month, the Bank of England painted a grim economic outlook and projected the UK's longest recession since the global financial crisis while raising interest rates by 50bps, its largest hike since 1995.

Pound Barely Reacts to GDP Figures

The dollar index held its recent decline toward the 105 mark on Friday and was on track to lose more than 1% this week, as softer-than-expected US consumer and producer price growths in July prompted speculations for peak inflation and a less aggressive Federal Reserve tightening moving forward. Markets are now priced for a higher chance of a 50-basis point rate hike in September versus earlier speculation of a bigger 75-basis point increase. In the latest Fed commentary, meanwhile, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that while a half-percentage point rate hike in September “makes sense,” she is open to the possibility of a bigger hike to fight too-high inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by end of 2023, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that US rates will top out at 4% next year.

Dollar Heads for Sharp Weekly Loss

The Mexican peso strengthened past the $20 level, the highest in over six weeks boosted by higher interest rates and broad dollar weakness. The central bank of Mexico raised rates by 75 bps to 8.5% in August, following a similar move in June to tame stubbornly high inflation. Mexico's annual inflation rate accelerated to 8.15% in July, the highest since 2000 and slightly above expectations. At the same time, the dollar index weakened to a 1-month low on expectations the Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes amidst signs that inflation is peaking.

Mexican Peso Appreciates to Over 6-Week High

The dollar index bottomed below the 105 mark, closing in on its lowest level since late June, as markets reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook following further evidence that inflation could be peaking. Data showed US producer prices declined in July for the first time in over two years, while analysts expected them to increase. The data followed a softer-than-expected US CPI reading on Wednesday, which suggested that the Federal Reserve could slow down its aggressive policy tightening plans. Markets are now pricing a 50 bps hike at the US central bank’s next policy meeting in September.

Dollar Extends Downside Momentum

The Japanese yen held its recent advance to below 133 against the dollar, moving away from a 24-year low of 139.4 reached in mid-July, helped by lower-than-expected US inflation numbers that raised speculations the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its policy tightening. On the domestic front, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled Japan’s cabinet and appointed lawmakers loyal to deceased premier Shinzo Abe to key positions, in a move that is likely to continue the country’s aggressive monetary easing that was a key pillar of the “Abenomics” era. Meanwhile, several Bank of Japan officials recently commented that the central bank needed an exit strategy from its massive stimulus, while maintaining that easy monetary settings were needed for the time being as wages must catch up to boost consumption and help Japan’s economic recovery.

Yen Holds Advance After US Inflation Data

The New Zealand dollar held around $0.64, hovering near its highest levels in two months, underpinned by a softer-than-expected US inflation report that sparked a broad rally in risk assets. Easing US inflation also raised hopes for a less aggressive monetary tightening, but Federal Reserve officials pushed back against such expectations and reiterated their commitment to keep raising interest rates to bring inflation significantly lower. On the domestic front, house prices in New Zealand fell in July as high inflation and rising interest rates weighed on demand. Recent data also showed that near-term inflation expectations in the country is forecasted to slow in the third quarter of 2022. Still, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to deliver another 50 basis point rate hike at its August 17 meeting.

NZ Dollar Firms Up on Softer US Inflation

The Australian dollar held just below $0.71, hovering near its highest levels in two months, underpinned by a softer-than-expected US inflation report that sparked a broad rally in risk assets. Easing US inflation also raised hopes for a less aggressive monetary tightening, but Federal Reserve officials pushed back against such expectations and reiterated their commitment to keep raising interest rates to bring inflation significantly lower. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia  raised interest rates for the fourth straight month in July but tempered guidance on future hikes amid expectations of a slowdown in the economy. RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that “the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path.” This contrasted with his previous remarks that the central bank was intent on bringing interest rates to a “neutral” level of at least 2.5%.

Aussie Holds Gains on Softer US Inflation

The dollar index rose toward 105.5 on Thursday after sliding 1% in the previous session, as traders assessed hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to keep raising interest rates to convincingly tame inflation. In the latest developments, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned in an FT interview that it is too early to “declare victory” in the fight against inflation, and that consumer prices remain “far too high and not near our price stability goal.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by end of 2023, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that US rates will top out at 4% next year. Those remarks came as the headline inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% in June amid a significant drop in gasoline prices.

Dollar Rises on on Hawkish Fed Remarks

The Mexican peso strengthened toward 20 per USD, the highest in six weeks as the dollar index weakened to a 1-month low after a key inflation reading showed a better-than-expected slowdown in rising prices. Also, Mexico's central bank is expected to raise rates by 75bps on Thursday, following a similar move in June to tame stubbornly high inflation. Mexico's annual inflation rate accelerated to 8.15% in July, the highest since 200 and slightly above expectations.

Mexican Peso Strengthens to 6-Week High

The South African rand appreciated sharply towards 16.2 per USD, the highest since June 28th, after a softer-than-expected US inflation report eased concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates aggressively, pulling down the dollar. Still, fundamentals hold as the currency is very sensitive to shifts in global market sentiment and the country battles with prolonged worker strikes, rolling blackouts and flood damages in addition to growing global recession fears. The South African Reserve Bank raised the key repo rate by more than expected 75 bps at its July 22nd meeting and signalled further aggressive monetary tightening ahead to tame the surging domestic inflation. Inflation topped 7.4% in June, the highest since May of 2009. Meanwhile, the government is cutting fuel pump prices in an attempt to ease pressure on household finances and cool inflation.

South African Rand Hits 6-Week High

USDCAD decreased to a 8-week low of 1.2764

Canadian Dollar Hits 8-week High

USDCNY decreased to a 4-week low of 6.7215

Chinese Yuan Hits 4-week High

The dollar index broke below the 105 mark for the first time in over a month after a softer-than-expected US inflation reading could encourage the Federal Reserve to go easy on its aggressive policy tightening plans. The annual US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July of 2022 from an over 40-year high of 9.1% amid a significant drop in gasoline prices. Core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a smaller-than-expected increase.

Dollar Hits One-Month Low

AUDUSD increased to a 7-week high of 0.70465

Australian Dollar Hits 7-week High

EURUSD increased to a 4-week high of 1.0292

Euro Hits 4-week High

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.77 against the dollar, weighed down by softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data. Consumer prices in China increased 2.7% in July from a year ago, rising at the fastest pace in two years but coming in lower than the 2.9% forecast. Producer prices also rose 4.2%, the lowest in 17 months and below the 4.8% increase predicted by analysts. Relatively mild inflation pressures in the mainland support the Chinese central bank’s stance of keeping policy accommodative as authorities try to support an economic recovery in the face of rising global interest rates. The yuan also remains susceptible to sharp moves amid resurgent domestic Covid-19 outbreaks, property sector risks and simmering tensions with the US over Taiwan.

Chinese Yuan Weakens on Soft Inflation Data

USDHKD decreased to a 4-week low of 7.8473

Hong Kong Dollar Hits 4-week High

The dollar index steadied above the 106 mark on Wednesday after facing some pressure in the previous two sessions, as traders avoided making big bets ahead of US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to have eased to 8.7% in July from 9.1% in June, and a significant downward surprise could reduce some pressure on the Fed and drive the greenback even lower. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected reading will reinforce the central bank's aggressive stance against runaway inflation and likely trigger another dollar rally. Markets are currently priced for a third straight 75 basis point rate hike at the US central bank’s next policy meeting in September on the heels of a surprisingly strong jobs report last week.

Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key CPI Report

The dollar index bottomed around the 106 mark as investors seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of US inflation data due on Wednesday, which may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's tightening plan. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to have eased to 8.7% from 9.1% in June, and a significant downward surprise could reduce some pressure on the Fed and drive the dollar even lower. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected reading will reinforce the central bank's stance of aggressive monetary policy tightening to tackle runaway inflation and likely trigger another bullish run for the dollar. The market movement came in the aftermath of stronger-than-expected payroll data last week, which prompted money markets to price in on another 75 bps hike in September.

Vasl Capital

Aug 11 2022

AUDUSD simple breakout and retest

Vasl Capital

Aug 01 2022

AUDUSD correction to move up

KUNAL KAMBLE

Jul 28 2022

RECTANGLE BREAKOUT

Jimmy Ye

Jul 26 2022

AUD USD: In a downtrend, potential to revisit 0.67000 level

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1

KUNAL KAMBLE

Jul 10 2022

AUD/USD

KUNAL KAMBLE

Jun 18 2022

AUD/USD

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