Recent US and Japenese war games have been triggering the YEN against other pairs in parabolic bullish moves.

As per the chart analysis, weekly and monthly both time frames still signal a bullish momentum, as we see market is still above EMA 200, but on the daily time frame, short-term bias has changed towards bearish looking at the market structure. Market has printed Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

In addition to this, we also see an ascending trend line breakout, which confirms a further leg down towards 151.00.

Although, the current daily candle is testing the EMA 50 on the bullish side, we still have to wait for market prices to be on support with the EMA testing the prices. Right now, we are in a NO MAN’S LAND (meaning, not at support/resistance levels).

In the oscillators, RSI is neither over-sold nor over-bought. Instead, we are hovering in the 50’s range of RSI. Also, no divergence has been printed on the support to confirm the further bullish leg up.

For CCI, we are near the value 0, which also represents neutrality for now.

So for the oscillators, there is currently no confirmation. The mid-ranges of RSI and CCI depict neutrality.

Given this situation, I will wait for market to tap the resistance level to sell.

As more confirmations are solidifying the short bias, I will personally by looking to sell at the level of 

155.00; which is an important psychological level.

At this level of 155.00, we have 4 confirmations: 

- Bearish market structure until the previous Highs are pierced. 

- A swing point resistance, also termed as SUPPLY zone. 

- Confluence of a golden Fibonacci retracement level of 75% (after the ascending trend-line breakout)

To take the short at the given price of 155, H4 confirmation of either bearish price action, or RSI/CCI divergence will be considered.

If market breaks the resistance, my SHORT trade plan is invalidated.

What we may see, are two scenarios currently:

1- Market moves up to the Daily resistance level to trigger my trade plan.

2- Market makes a bearish leg, down to the support from minor resistance of lower time frames.

Mohammad Ali Zaheer

Mohammad Ali Zaheer

Jul 01 2021

GBPJPY in NO MAN'S LAND. Waiting for SHORTS.

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